Five bold predictions for New York Yankees in 2016 Spring Training

Masahiro Tanaka will throw 200 innings

As far as on-field results go, the Yankees can’t be too dissatisfied with what they’ve received from Masahiro Tanaka. Over his first two MLB seasons, the Japanese import has posted a 3.16 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 5.83 K/BB ratio in 44 total starts.

The only problem is that Tanaka hasn’t been on the field quite as often as they would like. The right-hander was limited to 136.1 innings in 20 starts in 2014 due to an elbow injury, and 154 frames in 24 outings last season with a forearm strain. Many have debated whether his partial UCL tear will eventually require surgery.

Well, 2016 will finally be the year that Tanaka turns in a full season for the Yanks. 200 innings is his goal and he will eclipse that mark by year’s end. His performance may tend more toward last season’s numbers (3.51 ERA) than the year prior’s (2.77 ERA), but he will reliably take the ball every fifth day, as the team hoped he would when they signed him to a seven-year deal.

Next: Judge Sighting

Aaron Judge won’t be called up before Sept.

Aaron Judge is a popular name among Yankees fans right now, and for good reason. It’s hard not to see Judge’s 6’7″ frame and superhuman swing and not think Giancarlo Stanton. Many are clamoring for the 23-year-old to make the big league jump this year, but they should temper their expectations.

Judge didn’t exactly flourish at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre last season, slashing .224/.308/.373 in 61 games there. That was a far cry from the .284/.350/.516 line he put up in 63 games with Double-A Trenton. Let him conquer the top level of the minor league system before rushing him up to the majors.

It’s also worth noting that the primary candidate for Judge to replace in the outfield – Carlos Beltran – was much better last year than most give him credit for. From May 1 onward, the veteran slashed a hearty .295/.357/.505 and was arguably the Yankees’ most consistent hitter. He may be turning 39 soon, but Beltran will get the chance to see out the final year of his contract.

If the teams needs to promote an outfielder, Slade Heathcott or Mason Williams are more likely to receive the call. Judge could get a September cup of coffee when rosters expand, but that’s it.

Next: Home Run Leader

A-Rod leads team in homers again

Alex Rodriguez was one of the most surprising and controversial stories in baseball last season. After his year-long ban for PED use, A-Rod outpaced even the most optimistic of predictions by slashing .250/.356/.486 with 33 home runs and 86 RBIs.

Though he’s nearing his 41st birthday, Rodriguez will once again lead the Bronx Bombers in the homer department. Whether that’s more of a vote of confidence in his abilities or a lack of faith in Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann is up for debate. But if there is one thing A-Rod demonstrated in 2015, it’s that he still knows how to hit the long ball.

A-Rod struggled noticeably in the second half last year, hitting a meager .216 after the All-Star break compared to his .278 average before it. However, his power production was largely consistent. He belted 18 homers in the first half and another 15 in the second. With his full-time DH role and regular rest keeping him fresh, it’s not unreasonable to see him swatting another 30 or so in 2016.

Next: Bullpen Makes History

Bullpen sets strikeout record

This might be the easiest prediction on the list, but the Yankees bullpen is absolutely worth a mention. Last year the Yanks’ pen set a record for most relief strikeouts in a season with 596. The dominant pairing of Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had a lot to do with that.

Now add Aroldis Chapman to the mix. True, the cannon-armed former Reds closer will miss the first month of the season to a suspension, but his presence the rest of the year will make an already lethal bullpen that much scarier. He, Miller and Betances were responsible for three of the top four strikeout rates among relievers in 2015, and this season should be more of the same.

It’s not just the bullpen’s three-headed monster that opposing hitters need to worry about either. The Yankees have long valued hard-throwing, high-strikeout guys on their staff. Lefty Chasen Shreve added 64 Ks of his own in 58.1 innings of work last season. Young arms like Branden Pinder, Nick Rumbelow and James Pazos (all over 9.0 K/9 in their minor league careers) should also get opportunities throughout the year.

Supporting a rotation that doesn’t always go deep into games, this should be an active bullpen and one that will crack 600 strikeouts as a unit.

Next: Postseason Fate

Another early postseason exit

Outwardly, the Yankees and their fans still expect to win the World Series every year. However, there has been a definite shift in philosophy over the past few seasons as the team focuses more on building a long-term foundation and less on spending the most money in free agency on a perennial basis.

The Bombers did technically make the postseason in 2015 by snatching the first AL Wild Card, their first playoff appearance in three years (an eternity in Yankeeland). That satisfaction was very short-lived, though, as the team ran into Dallas Keuchel and the Houston Astros in the one-game Wild Card playoff.

On the bright side, the Yankees have the makings of another solid if unspectacular squad in 2016. An elite bullpen and better-than-expected rotation should help pick up any slack from the aging lineup. A division title is likely too optimistic given the fierce AL East competition: namely, the Blue Jays’ high-octane offense along with the significant improvements made by the Red Sox and Orioles. Nevertheless, New York will punch its postseason ticket for the second straight year via the Wild Card.

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Unfortunately, from there it may be deja vu all over again (as the late, great Yogi Berra would say). A streaky offense and the lack of a legitimate shutdown ace may once again hurt the Yanks in a one-game playoff scenario against one of the other competitive American League clubs.