Ranking the top first basemen in MLB approaching Opening Day

Honorable Mentions

Hanley Ramirez

Much of Hanley Ramirez‘s success this season will depend on his ability to play defense at first base effectively, but his bat should bounce back after a down season.  If healthy, Ramirez can return to an All-Star caliber level.

Brandon Belt

It took a few seasons for Brandon Belt to fully develop, but he quietly had one of the better offensive seasons from a first baseman last year. With a .834 OPS and 18 home runs, Belt proved he’s a reliable contributor across the board.

Lucas Duda

One of the more traditional first basemen in the league, Lucas Duda broke onto the scene with a surprising 2014 campaign that he followed up with strikingly similar numbers last season. Duda hits for power and not much else, but that’s all he needs in a solid New York Mets lineup.

Justin Bour

Miami Marlins’ first baseman Justin Bour is atrocious against left-handers, but mashed 23 home runs off of right-handed pitchers last season.  He’ll need to figure out how to effectively hit lefties, and if he does, his potential is very high.

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10. Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols may be a shell of his former self, but he clubbed 40 home runs in 157 games last season while hitting .244.  His OBP of .307 was way down from his career average, but Pujols can still be a viable contributor for at least a few more seasons.  Look for the 36-year-old to keep posting solid power numbers going forward.

9. Adrian Gonzalez

As he’s aged, Adrian Gonzalez has shown his ability to adjust his game to suit whichever play style would best benefit his team.  Now 33, it’s unlikely Gonzalez will ever top 40 home runs or hit .300 again, but his balanced approach gives him the ability to get on base at a high rate while still driving in nearly 100 runs.

8. Jose Abreu

Jose Abreu took a slight step back in his sophomore campaign, but still posted near-elite numbers among first basemen. At 29, it’s likely Abreu has peaked in terms of value – but that’s a huge plus for a Chicago White Sox team that struggled mightily in 2015. It’s possible that Abreu tops 40 home runs now that the team added other threats like Todd Frazier to support him in the lineup.

7. Eric Hosmer

Eric Hosmer has yet to develop into an elite power hitter like many expected him to be, but he fills the role of a solid contact hitter that can get on base at an effective rate. His 18 home runs last season were one shy of his career-high, and it’s possible that he tops 20 for the first time in his career this season. It’s doubtful that he’ll ever improve on defense though, as he’s never posted a positive defensive WAR. At the prime age of 26, Hosmer could experience a significant breakthrough at the plate, however.

6. Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion was one of the catalysts of an elite Toronto Blue Jays offense in 2015, and 2016 figures to be no different. His 39 home runs were his most since 2012, and entering a contract year it’s possible his offense takes another step forward. While he only played in 59 games at first base last season, he appears just enough to qualify here.

5. Chris Davis

2016 Projected Stats: .267/.364/.571, 49 HR, 122 RBI, 6.3 WAR

There was a lot of mystery surrounding Chris Davis this offseason as for a time, it didn’t look as though the Baltimore Orioles would re-sign him despite him hitting 47 homers while slashing .262/.361/.562 last season. Eventually, the team gave in and inked him to a seven-year, $161 million deal that brings him back with deservedly high expectations.

As long as he avoids another disaster like his 2014 campaign, in which he stumbled his way to a .196 average, Davis should warrant the big money. His ability to play the outfield is an added bonus, as the Orioles now have Pedro Alvarez and Mark Trumbo to take some time at first base. His overall defense has never been spectacular, but his 5.7 UZR/150 at first and 20.4 in right field prove his versatility.

Other than his monster power, Davis has a knack for getting on base and can run the bases effectively, as he scored 100 runs last season. His 31 percent strikeout rate last season is high, but that’s to be expected among power hitters. Look for Davis to post similar numbers to his 2015 campaign this season.

4. Miguel Cabrera

2016 Projected Stats: .331/.437/.525, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 6.2 WAR

Questions regarding Miguel Cabrera‘s durability as he enters his age 33 season loom large after his first ever stint on the disabled list last season, but he’s continually proven to be the best pure hitter in the big leagues. Despite playing in only 119 games, Cabrera still led the league with a .338 average while posting a .974 OPS. His 18 home runs were down from his career-norm, but that’s due in large part to the time he missed.

Cabrera has the tools and physique to age gracefully, and it’s very unlikely that he experiences any sort of sharp decline this season. Last year, he came close to walking more than he struck out, and that trend should continue this season. Even if his power doesn’t return to elite levels, Cabrera’s ability to consistently rack up hits and get on base are much more valuable.

A move to DH may be coming in the future, but his defense at first base is still serviceable enough to warrant keeping him there for the next couple years.  At 33, Cabrera isn’t likely to win a Gold Glove, but his background as a third baseman should allow him to stick around on the field.

Already a lock for the Hall of Fame, Cabrera will look to rack up milestones as he rides out the rest of his career with what could be a resurgent Detroit Tigers team.

3. Anthony Rizzo

2016 Projected Stats: .302/.391/.523, 35 HR, 112 RBI, 15 SB, 6.5 WAR

It took a few years for Anthony Rizzo to reach his full potential, but the Chicago Cubs’ patience has paid off tremendously as the 26-year-old is now among the most feared hitters in the league. A .278/.386/.512 slash line and 31 home runs solidified his role as the anchor of an elite Cubs lineup, and he could be in line for some improvement.

His .289 BABIP contributed to a lower average, so if his luck increases this season, Rizzo could top .300 while still getting on base at an elite level. Add in his surprisingly solid base running (17 steals last season) and there’s the makings of a near five-way contributor. Even more impressively, Rizzo lowered his strikeout percentage nearly four points last season while maintaining an efficient 11.1 percent walk rate.

Rizzo’s defense is nothing to brag about, but a 3.4 UZR/150 and 10 DRS is effective enough to warrant consideration as a solid defender. Now in the prime of his career, it’s scary to think that Rizzo can improve, but that’s exactly what might happen for the Cubs veteran.

2. Joey Votto

2016 Projected Stats: .309/.451/.530, 27 HR, 84 RBI, 6.9 WAR

A down 2014 season had Joey Votto‘s future with the Cincinnati Reds in jeopardy, but a resurgent 2015 vaulted him back into the MVP conversation. While his power has never been elite, Votto’s all-around solid approach to hitting keeps him as one of the best pure hitters in baseball. Last season’s slash line of .314/.459/.541 and 29 home runs was among the best of his career, and at 32 it’s possible he repeats it this season.

As the sole remaining star in a Reds lineup devoid of talent, Votto may struggle to consistently produce, but his patient approach gives him some hope. Votto walked at a career-high rate of 20.6 percent (!) last season and struck out only 19.4 percent of the time, which proves his plate discipline has only improved as he’s gained maturity. He’s among the best at getting on base, a trend that will likely continue going forward.

Along with his elite average, Votto managed to steal 11 bases, his highest total since 2010. His athleticism translates to defense, as well. A former Gold Glove winner, Votto’s defense is no longer at that level, but he’s still solid enough to remain in the upper-echelon of defensive first basemen.

Votto may never hit 37 home runs like he did in 2010, but with his advanced approach there’s nothing to complain about in his overall game.

1. Paul Goldschmidt

2016 Projected Stats: .329/.447/.578, 39 HR, 118 RBI

Over the past three seasons, Paul Goldschmidt has emerged as one of the league’s best all-around hitters and the clear face of the Arizona Diamondbacks.  After hitting .321 with a 1.005 OPS and 33 home runs last season, Goldschmidt proved he’s a legitimate MVP candidate with the potential to contend for years to come.

Goldy’s power numbers look good on the surface, and could improve in the future if his .570 slugging percentage is any indication.  His .249 isolated power bodes well for his chances to hit 40-plus homers in the future, and that could come as early as this season.

With a 17 percent walk rate and 21.7 strikeout rate, the 28-year-old has mastered the art of hitting for power and contact while managing to consistently get on base. His speed is also dominant for a 6’3″ 245-pound frame, as he stole 21 bases last year.

Next: 5 bold Yankees predictions for 2016

Add in two Gold Glove awards, and the D-Backs have a franchise changing player in both aspects of the game. Look for Goldy to continue to produce this season and push for his first MVP award.