Toronto Blue Jays: How will Marcus Stroman compare to David Price in 2016?
After David Price’s exit, the Toronto Blue Jays are looking to Marcus Stroman to lead their rotation. How will the two pitchers stack up in 2016?
The Toronto Blue Jays weren’t exactly expected to keep David Price in free agency, so it wasn’t a huge shock went the ace left-hander bolted to the Boston Red Sox over the winter. A seven-year, $217 million contract is hard to turn down.
However, that doesn’t change the fact that Price’s absence will be felt this year north of the border. The Jays pulled off a blockbuster deal at the trade deadline, reeling in Price to play the part of the dominant number-one starting pitcher in their postseason run. It worked out rather well. Price needed only a few months in Toronto to demonstrate tremendous value to the team, and the club scored its first ALCS appearance in over two decades.
Despite Price’s departure, the Blue Jays still have their sights set on another deep playoff run, and they’re in pretty good shape, all things considered. Few teams can match their lineup for sheer firepower, so runs should be in plentiful supply. Nevertheless, having a clear-cut shutdown ace in your rotation is a key advantage in any squad with championship ambitions (though the Royals challenged that notion last fall).
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As soon as Price put pen to paper with Boston, 24-year-old Marcus Stroman became the lead man on Toronto’s staff. In fact, the Jays just officially named him their Opening Day starter. There is a lot of responsibility on his shoulders, but also plenty of reasons to believe he can answer the call.
Stroman’s 2015 campaign was nearly wiped out due to a torn ACL, but he returned to the mound on September 12. He showed little to no signs of rust in four starts to close out the regular season, spinning a 1.67 ERA over 27 innings. Take out the shaky first outing and the numbers look even better: the righty allowed just two runs on 16 hits while striking out 16 in his final 22 frames.
That’s a very small sample size, but the results are arguably even more promising than Price’s brilliant second-half run in a Toronto uniform. In 11 regular season starts for the Jays, Price posted a 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 10.5 K/9 over 74.1 innings.
The Jays have every right to feel excited about Stroman’s future. Despite a rather diminutive frame (5’8″, 180 lbs) for a big league hurler, Stroman was selected by Toronto in the first round of the 2012 draft and developed into a highly-touted prospect in their system. Coming off a solid debut season in 2014, observers were anticipating big things from him a year ago before the unfortunate injury.
It’s not unreasonable to believe that Stroman will eclipse Price at some point during the latter’s contract with the Red Sox. But could it happen as early as this season?
Price is now 30 years old, around the time that many professional ballplayers begin to experience a decline. To the former Cy Young winner’s credit, he’s shown no signs of slowing down. Last year’s 161 ERA+ was the best in any full season of his career.
Stroman turns 25 at the start of May. With only 30 major league appearances to his name so far, it wouldn’t be preposterous for him to take a step back this year, at least in the early going, as he works to establish himself. However, with youth on his side, it’s also quite possible he takes a major leap forward.
Home ballparks likely won’t provide much of an edge to either pitcher. Fenway Park and the Rogers Centre are two of the more hitter-friendly venues in the league. Price owns a 1.95 ERA in 11 careers outings at his new Boston home, while Stroman’s impressive stretch last September came exclusively against AL East opponents in environments known for offense.
Statistical projections favor Price, though not by as much as one might think. Fangraphs’ Depth Charts projections (a combination of Steamer and ZiPs) pegs Stroman at a 3.71 ERA and 3.4 WAR on the year, and Price at a 3.16 ERA and 5.0 WAR.
It’s difficult not to see Price maintaining his reign as one of baseball’s elite pitchers at least through this season. He hasn’t lost much of anything in terms of velocity over the course of his eight-year career, and as long as there is no unexpected change in that regard, he should continue baffling hitters.
Stroman has the added challenge of needing to prove that he can pitch at a high level over an entire MLB season. Before his injury-decimated 2015, he tossed 130.2 innings over 26 appearances the year prior, managing a 3.65 ERA in the process. While Stroman could certainly pick up right where he left off and assert himself as one of the game’s best young pitchers, he is undoubtedly more of a wild card than his counterpart.
Expecting Stroman to outdo Price in 2016 is probably too much to ask for, but it’s definitely a comparison worth keeping an eye on over the next few years. David Price left some very big shoes to fill, but if he stays healthy Stroman will likely do an admirable job taking on the mantle of “ace.”