2016 MLB Preview: 5 Spring Training pretenders
2016’s MLB Opening Day is only a week or so away. Clubs are scrambling to fill spots where a starter might have been injured. Managers are getting a clearer picture of what their rotation will look like and prospects are making final pushes to grab a spot on the 25-man roster.
There are always players who dazzle in spring ball, make a squad with high expectations, but fail to deliver. Here are five names who likely will not see their preseason success bleed over into the regular season for a large period of time.
Next: Welington Castillo
C Welington Castillo – ARI
In terms of winning first string back catching duties, Welington Castillo is far ahead of the competition. The position was a sore spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015. The club shuffled back and forth between unknowns Tuffy Gosewisch and Jordan Pacheco before claiming Jarrod Saltalamacchia from the minors when the Marlins released him.
Then in June, Arizona traded for Castillo, resulting in him playing for his third team in 2015. He finished the season with a pretty decent overall line of .243-19-55 despite all the bouncing around he did. His .255-17-50 line came over 80 games with the D-backs.
He’s going to get decent protection in the lineup and will undoubtedly get more starts than any other catcher. Castillo’s current spring line of .481/.545/1.148 is just way too high though. It might signal a hot start in April where he’s a .276/.320/.443 hitter, but his career line of .251/.316/.414 portends his numbers will be nowhere near worthy of NL MVP contention. If anything, Castillo might be a top 15 ranked fantasy catcher by seasons end with decent power numbers.
Next: Joe Kelly
SP Joe Kelly – BOS
Joe Kelly was a mainstay in the BoSox rotation for most of 2015. However, like every other starter excluding Clay Buchholz when he was healthy and maybe Eduardo Rodriguez intermittently during his 21 starts, he was a letdown.
Kelly, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Henry Owens were ugly. All had ERA’s over 4.40, while Kelly was the only one who managed to somehow escape with a record above .500 (10-6). His 4.18 FIP didn’t do much for his cause either and suggests Kelly had a lot of luck and run support in his 10 victories.
He throws hard, with a fastball that sat at 95.5 mph in 2015. For some reason, that pitch plus the four other regular ones employed in his arsenal have never brought on a lot of success. Kelly’s career ERA is 3.82 and his FIP is 4.13. The oppositions .276 BAA last year was also the highest of his career. Currently, the 27-year-old has a 2-0 record in four starts this spring with a 1.38 ERA.
There’s a big reason the Red Sox dished out the money for David Price. Kelly is not the sole reason, but he’s a big part of why Boston’s rotation was a disaster in 2015.
Next: Mike Pelfrey
SP Mike Pelfrey – DET
If Mike Pelfrey has been anything in his career, it’s been consistent in terms of his durability. Only twice since 2008 did he not cap 29 starts in a season. But Pelfrey is nothing more than an innings eater and a fairly reliable fourth or fifth man in the rotation.
His stock has fallen significantly since being the ninth overall pick in the 2005 draft. The 32-year-old signed with the Tigers on December 6, coming over from AL Central foe the Minnesota Twins. Over three seasons there, he compiled an 11-27 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. The ERA and the WHIP numbers are worse than his career averages, but the lifetime FIP of 4.21 is equally alarming.
It might help that Pelfrey won’t have to routinely face a stacked Tigers lineup on game day anymore, but this division still has a lot of offensive firepower between the Twins, Royals and White Sox. His 1.17 ERA and 0.84 WHIP through 15.1 IP this spring is nothing more than a flash in the pan. Don’t be fooled, Pelfrey is an average starting pitcher in the league, at best.
Next: Luis Sardinas
INF Luis Sardinas – SEA
Luis Sardinas is only 22 and still a promising prospect in this league, but there won’t be a breakout in 2016 unless there’s a breakdown of health throughout the Mariners corps of infielders. Sardinas can man second, short or third and Seattle is pretty solidified at all three spots.
He’s severely road blocked by Robinson Cano at second base and Kyle Seager at third. At shortstop, Ketel Marte is coming off a strong rookie campaign in 2015 that saw him fill in well for an injured Chris Taylor. He ran away with the starting SS gig from July 31 onward, slashing .283/.351/.402 in 219 at-bats. While his spring line is nowhere near Sardinas’ robust .375/.400/.625 with two home runs and 14 RBI, Marte’s track record last year bodes well for him.
Playing first base might even have been an option for Sardinas, had the M’s not traded for Adam Lind. As it stands now, manager Scott Servais will likely go with the guys who all have experience under their belts. Sardinas has 212 MLB at-bats from 2014-15. The Venezuelan is a career .288 hitter in the minors, so if an injury occurs, he could have a decent season. But his lack of experience coupled with the guys already in place in Seattle’s infield don’t bode well for him in 2016.
Next: Jemile Weeks
2B Jemile Weeks – SDP
Considering his finest season came as a rookie in 2011 with Oakland when Jemile Weeks hit .303 with 171 total bases and 22 stolen ones, it feels like a follow up season has been a long time coming.
Weeks was merely a blip on the radar in 2014 and 2015 with the Orioles and Red Sox. 2016 won’t be friendly to the middle infielder, either. If he earns a starting spot on the San Diego Padres, he will be hitting in a very pitcher friendly ballpark for his home games. Also, the Friars’ offensive help has been affected in a negative way with the departures of Justin Upton and Yonder Alonso.
So far this preseason, Weeks’ .441/.486/.765 line looks mighty appetizing compared to Cory Spangenberg‘s .283/.327/.348. He’s the Padres’ other likely option at second base this season. Neither have a lot of power, but Weeks’ wheels are his upside in the position battle. Spangenberg hit .271/.333/.399 with four homers and 21 RBI in 303 at-bats last season for San Diego.