MLB Preview: Ranking the Top Third Basemen in MLB
Third base has traditionally been a position of dominant hitters with a few sluggers taking headlines. Now, many of of the modern third basemen are tremendous athletes, as well. There’s plenty of talent at the hot corner, as seemingly every team has one or two players ready to contribute.
Colorado Rockies star Nolan Arenado ascended to greatness following the trade of Troy Tulowitzki, while Josh Donaldson took home his first MVP trophy in what was a dominant year. Young stars like Manny Machado and Kris Bryant are already among the game’s best, and are poised to keep improving.
But third base is more than just young talent. The old guard, headlined by Adrian Beltre, is still preforming at a high level, and showing that the youth do not always rule the day. Then there are those who quietly go about their business in relative obscurity, yet are still among the best the game has to offer.
But who rank among the best at the position heading into the 2016 season? Here’s our rankings of the top third basemen in MLB approaching Opening Day.
Next: The honorable mentions
Honorable Mentions
Trevor Plouffe was one of the main reasons the Minnesota Twins surged into competition last season, and his power will continue to be a vital tool for an emerging lineup. He’ll never be a .300 hitter, but his defense and leadership more than makes up for it.
Once considered one of the top third basemen in the league after a few dominant seasons with the San Diego Padres, Chase Headley has not yet lived up to the hype with the New York Yankees. However, he’s a consistent threat to get on base and provide some pop toward the bottom of the order.
Adrian Beltre
Adrian Beltre has been as consistent as anyone over the past several years at third base, and that likely won’t slow down yet. Despite his age (37), Beltre still has above average skills across the board. A nagging thumb injury bothered him for most of last season, but he picked things up down the stretch.
Next: Just missing the cut
10-6
10. Mike Moustakas
Just when Mike Moustakas was on his way out of a starting gig in Kansas City, he finally broke through with a .284/.384/.470 slash line and 22 home runs. While he’ll likely never live up to his top prospect status, Moustakas looks poised to improve in coming seasons. His power is arguably his top trait, but his defense will be what ultimately keeps his value up. Expect Moustakas to produce similar numbers to last season.
9. Kyle Seager
Despite being in the league for several years, Kyle Seager’s younger brother, Corey, already holds more value. But that’s not to say Kyle isn’t a star – he’s arguably one of the most consistent players in the majors. With four straight seasons of 20 plus home runs and a .260-ish batting average, Seager will likely continue to be a force in the Seattle Mariners’ lineup. His defense is also rock solid, making him one of the better all-around contributors in MLB.
While Evan Longoria is no longer the superstar he was just three seasons ago, Longoria can still be counted on to post above-average numbers in nearly every statistical category. His batting average dipped to .253 in 2014, but he managed to improve to .270 last season while earning his third straight season with at least 21 home runs. If it weren’t for other stars in the American League, Longo could have earned a Gold Glove in 2015.
7. Matt Duffy
While many thought the departure of Pablo Sandoval would leave a glaring hole in the San Francisco Giants lineup, Matt Duffy emerged to produce a surprisingly solid season. Duffy posted a .295/.334/.448 slash line to go along with 12 homers, 12 steals and 77 RBI. He’s not a star in any particular facet of the game, but Duffy has the tools to impact the game every time he’s on the field.
6. Todd Frazier
The reigning Home Run Derby champion enters 2016 with a new team and yet another lineup to carry with the Chicago White Sox. Frazier has become one of the game’s most feared power hitters in the past two seasons, and that should continue in Chicago. While he experienced a dip in batting average last season, it was likely a result of a weak Cincinnati Reds lineup. Look for Frazier to put up big numbers in the Windy City.
Next: The young slugger
5. Kris Bryant
2016 Projected Stats: .302/.374/.512, 33 HR, 115 RBI, 9 SB, 7.3 WAR
Only entering his sophomore season, Kris Bryant is already among the game’s brightest stars. While his elite power in the minors didn’t completely translate in his rookie season, Bryant looks poised to increase his power output and his overall production in a loaded Chicago Cubs lineup.
Last season, Bryant hit .275 with a .858 OPS to go along with 26 home runs and 99 RBI in 151 games. This year, it’s likely that Bryant will work to cut down his 30.6 percent strikeout rate and work to improve his contact and overall plate discipline. He did draw walks in 11.8 percent of his at-bats last year, so the patience to become a .300 hitter is there. Regardless, his .369 OBP last season proves he can get on base in a variety of ways – and that should be a trait that sticks with him as he ages.
With a year of experience under his belt, opposing pitchers will have much deeper scouting reports – so adjustments will need to be made at some point. A high .378 BABIP could be unnerving, but Bryant has the tools to overcome any bad luck that may come his way. Add in 13 steals, and Bryant has the athleticism to truly impact the game.
On the defensive side of things, Bryant proved he’s one of the best at the hot corner – but also that he can handle himself in the outfield. While he was a disaster in center field, Bryant impressive numbers in left and right field. For now, his 5.4 UZR/150 and 3 DRS at third base will keep him at the hot corner – but a 41.4 UZR/150 in left could signal a change in the future.
Bryant looks poised to improve as he enters his second major league season as one of the Cubs top threats at the plate. The 24-year-old has yet to prove himself as a year-to-year threat, however, keeping him below other players in these rankings.
Next: A forgotten star
2016 Projected Stats: .298/.369/.498, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 5.1 WAR
For most of Matt Carpenter’s career, he was regarded as a true contact threat without much power – but that changed last year when he switched up his approach and mashed 28 home runs. But with his newfound power, Carpenter saw his average stay at a relatively low .272 as compared to his career norms.
The main reason for Carpenter’s dip in average, which was the same in 2014, was his increased strikeout rate. Carpenter struck out in 22.7 percent of his at-bats, which was a seven point increase from 2014 and a nine point increase from 2013. He still walked at a solid 12.2 percent rate and managed to get on base at a .368 clip, however.
Entering his age 30 season, Carpenter saw his defensive efficiency take a hit last season, as his UZR/150 dipped to -5.7 and he committed 14 errors. While he may never win a Gold Glove, he has the versatility to play anywhere in the infield – and that’s a major boost to his overall value.
Carpenter’s power will continue to be an asset to his overall game, but he’ll need to figure out how to balance it with contact hitting if he’s to truly be considered elite. Look for him to improve his batting average this season with a slight dip in power.
Next: A future MVP candidate
3. Nolan Arenado
2016 Projected Stats: .293/.341/.578, 44 HR, 127 RBI, 5.1 WAR
In a loaded Colorado Rockies lineup, even with Tulowitzki, Arenado provided the team energy and consistency on the offensive side of things. Always known for solid power, Arenado exploded to hit 42 home runs after hitting just 18 a year before. Entering his age 25 season, Arenado is just entering his prime and looks poised for another dominant year.
Arenado managed to hit .287/.323/.575 and drive in 130 (!) runs despite a relatively low .284 BABIP. His OBP last season was far from elite, and the BABIP troubles can explain that. Still, it’s impressive that he was able to finish the season with an average approaching .300. While much of his success can be contributed to the hitter-friendly Coors Field – he hit .316 at home compared to .258 away – he actually hit more home runs away than at home.
His plate discipline needs work, as he only walked in 5.1 percent of his at-bats, but he also only struck out 16.5 percent of the time. Along with his home run power, he also managed to hit 43 doubles – meaning he’s more than a home run or nothing type of player.
Add in Gold Glove defense, and Arenado is quickly entering the conversation of best players in the game. While his defense wasn’t as good as his rookie season where he managed a 30 DRS, he finished last year with 18 DRS and a 4.6 UZR/150.
Expect Arenado to post similar numbers to 2015 as he looks to improve his plate discipline and work on hitting for contact away from Coors Field.
Next: What a difference a year makes
2. Manny Machado
2016 Projected Stats: .305/.367/.520, 38 HR, 102 RBI, 19 SB, 7.2 WAR
Now free of injury concerns, Manny Machado produced like a perennial MVP candidate last season. A .286/.359/.502 slash line and 35 home runs are only scratching the surface of what he can do, as he’s likely to become a five-tool contributor very soon.
Arguably the most impressive aspect of Machado’s 2015 season was his ability to play in all 162 games after only playing 89 the previous year. A low .297 BABIP likely kept his stats from reaching expected heights, but that should change this season. Machado was also able to decrease his strikeouts and increase his walks, leading to an impressive OBP.
This season, Machado should once again dominate opposing pitchers with his power and knack for getting on base. Once he’s there, though, his true abilities only begin. With 20 steals and 102 runs scored last season, Machado looks to be a 20-20 threat year in and year out.
That athleticism translates to defense, too, as he took home his second Gold Glove award of his career. Despite committing 19 errors, Machado finished with a 14 DRS and 8.4 UZR/150. After making the switch from shortstop, it’s possible Machado starts a streak of Gold Glove wins.
Only 23, Machado has yet to even reach the peak of his potential – and that’s a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Next: The reigning MVP
1. Josh Donaldson
2016 Projected Stats: .299/.354/.537, 44 HR, 127 RBI, 8.2 WAR
Josh Donaldson had always been a consistent power threat with the Oakland Athletics, but no one expected him to break out in the way he did after being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. A .297 average and .939 OPS with 41 home runs and 123 RBI were more than enough to help him beat out Mike Trout for the MVP award.
At 30, Donaldson is in the midst of his prime and could be in line for a slew of MVP awards in coming years. What’s most impressive about Donaldson’s game is his plate discipline, as he’s never been a high strikeout guy and has always managed to draw walks when needed. Considering that he posted last season’s numbers with only a .314 BABIP, and it becomes that much more impressive.
It’s hard to see Donaldson topping 50 home runs, but it’s definitely possible as he enters 2016 more confident than ever. While he’ll never top 10 stolen bases, he scored 122 runs behind the power of the Blue Jays lineup. That doesn’t mean he’s lacking in the athleticism department, though. If it weren’t for Machado, Donaldson could have easily won last season’s Gold Glove award as he finished with a 9.8 UZR/150.
Next: Ranking the top five pitching rotations for 2016
As the best hitter on the best lineup in baseball, it doesn’t look as if Donaldson will slow down anytime soon. Look for him to be poised to repeat his dominant 2015 campaign with what could be a more impressive follow-up in 2016.