MLB Power Rankings: Opening Week Edition

Life without Reyes will be just fine

Rule number one of Spring Training: don’t pay attention to statistics. While I typically abide by this law, I can’t resist staring at Nolan Arenado’s numbers.

.566/.579/1.094, six homers, eight doubles, 16 RBI.

Coming off a monster 2015 season highlighted by a league-leading 130 RBI, Arenado is a legit MVP candidate, if the guy in Washington hits a roadblock. The 24-year-old also hit 42 homers, displaying the best pull-power in MLB. Forty of his 42 deep flies went to the left side of center field, and Fangraphs wrote a great analysis of his success on inside pitches, a whopping .436 ISO.

If not for Arenado’s silly spring stats, the lead story in Rockies camp would be Trevor Story. A 2011 first-round pick (45^th overall), Story will be the starting shortstop on Opening Day after posting a .354/.426/.854 slash line with six dingers. Jose Reyes will presumably return to the team – unless he is suspended by the league – after his domestic abuse charge was dropped, but it’s Story’s job to lose after showcasing his pop and stellar defense.

Charlie Blackmon (17 HR, 43 stolen bases) and Carlos Gonzalez (27 HR, 62 RBI in second half) will complete the top-half of the lineup, and that’s pretty much where you draw the line.

Colorado is going to be bad for the sixth-straight season. Let’s not kid ourselves here. However, help isn’t too far away. Baseball America lists the Rockies as the sixth-best farm system, with nearly all of their Top 10 prospects expected to start at Double-A this year.

But until then, marvel at this guy:

Next: 25-21: Speed, power and Byron Buxton

Twins will at least be entertaining

The Minnesota Twins are going to be underrated team this season in terms of entertainment value.

Granted, me tagging a 23^rd shows I don’t have a lot of faith in them, although if they were in the NL they would be better than six teams. Why will they be enjoyable to watch? Speed, power and Byron Buxton.

Buxton’s debut season didn’t go according to plan – .209, 31.9 strikeout percentage – but it’s his mobility in center field which makes him a joy to watch. But a full year with the big league club will give him the chance to get a feel of top pitching. He’s projected to be a 10+ HR, 50+ RBI, 20+ SB guy, and we’ll overlook the strikeout numbers with his defense.

Then there’s Miguel Sano, who should easily top 30 homers in his first full season. A prototypical pull power hitter, the 22-year-old exploded onto the scene, but his bat speed steadily dropped as the season wore on. He might hit 10 bombs in the first month, but the question is how he’ll manage with a full year under his belt.

Minnesota’s starting rotation is a mystery in its own right, beginning with Ervin Santana. In his return from suspension last season, the right-hander struggled, allowing opponents to slug .561 against him in August. However, as the Twins knocked on the door for a playoff spot, Santana was brilliant down the stretch – 1.88 ERA, .296 opp. SLG in September and October.

Kyle Gibson will be a serviceable No. 2, but Phil Hughes took a major step backwards last year after an out of nowhere 2014 campaign highlights by a 2.65 FIP. Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco will round out rotation, so while it’s not the worst in the league, it’s probably the least impressive among AL clubs.

Next: 20-16: Raining baseballs in Seattle

Cano on a tear entering regular season

I moved the Seattle Mariners up from my originally rankings. Here’s why:

Maybe I’m overreacting, but damn Robinson Cano looks good. Cano’s biggest issue in the first half of 2015 was hitting curveballs. The second baseman batted .127 on resulting deuces, including a mere three extra-base hits in 55 at-bats when making contact. On pitches out of the zone, Cano held a 68 percent contact rate, his lowest mark since 2007.

In order for the M’s to reach the postseason, Cano will need to play as he did in the second half of last season where he performed like one of the league’s greats again – a .335 average with 15 home runs.

There are real concerns with the pitching staff outside of Felix Hernandez. On paper, Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns looks like a nice rotation, but Seattle starters have disappointed this spring. This group has potential, don’t get me wrong, with the addition of Miley improving the depth top to bottom. However, Seattle had to give up shutdown reliever Carson Smith to get him, which leaves a bullpen filled with question marks.

The Mariners are betting on closer Steve Cishek to return to 2014 form, while 38-year-old Joaquin Benoit is penciled in the setup role. But beyond the back end guys, it’s a group casual fans scratch their heads at. Only one lefty – Mike Montgomery – is projected to be in the bullpen, a player who has appeared in 16 career big league games.

Next: 15-11: Under the radar?

Strasburg, Nationals out to reclaim NL East hold

For once, the Nationals in the Bryce Harper era are being overlooked. Gone are the days of picking Washington to win the NL East thanks to the resurgent Mets.

But are we disregarding them too strongly?

This team, with one of the best players in baseball and top five pitching combos, could win 95 games. They could also finish .500.

I do know this: Stephen Strasburg is ready for the regular season. In one of the few times I watched a full spring game, Strasburg was electric. His changeup nearly hit 90, he painted the fastball on the corners and got out of a bases loaded jam with ease and rolling a double play grounder. Projections systems love him this year – sub 3.00 ERA – and I do as well.

Danny Espinosa will slide over to shortstop in 2016, despite playing just 59 career games at the position. However, in 50 innings there last year, Espinosa did not commit an error. Postseason magic man Daniel Murphy will be an upgrade at second base, a consistent middle infielder the Nationals have failed to produce.

I’m more bullish on Washington than most people. If the New York aces regress, the Nationals can most certainly contend in the division.

Next: 10-6: Dodgers outside the Top 5?

Banged up blues

Before writing this, I accessed the Los Angeles injury report. Thirteen players were on it.

Originally a top five team in my pre-Spring Training rankings, I dialed the Dodgers back a bit. Among the notable health concerns are Andre Ethier (out until June), Howie Kendrick (nagging calf), Hyun-Jin Ryu (shoulder recovery) Yasmani Grandal (forearm strain) and MLB’s top prospect Corey Seager (knee).

Seager and Grandal could be ready for Opening Day, but expect rust. Luckily, the Dodgers have the depth to solve the subtractions. No Kendrick? Oh, we’ll just plug in former All-Star Chase Utley. Need a left fielder, hey Carl Crawford, get out there.

Of course, the storyline surrounding the Dodgers is life without Zack Greinke. Look, Clayton Kershaw will be Clayton Kershaw, and Scott Kazmir will be a solid No. 2. The real question is how Kenta Maeda will compare to fellow Japanese players who have made the transition. In a big market like LA, I’m interested to see how he handles the spotlight.

My pick to win the division is San Francisco, but the Dodgers will be in the hunt for a playoff berth. After a walkthrough over the Padres to begin the year, Los Angeles gets the Diamondbacks and two series against the Giants, games where we’ll see how they perform despite all the injuries.

Next: 5-1: The elites

Take your pick

If you had to choose one New York Mets pitcher to win the CY Young this season, who would it be?

There is no right or wrong answer here, as any of the big three – Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard – can earn the hardware. For those who said Bartolo Colon, please wait while I stop laughing…

Okay, we’re good.

But now let’s seriously look at the projections, according to FanGraphs, for the three aces:

Harvey – 13-9, 3.00 ERA, 3.05 FIP

deGrom – 14-9, 3.00 ERA, 3.00 FIP

Syndergaard – 12-9, 3.12 ERA, 3.04 FIP

The closeness of these numbers is quite shocking. Oh, and there’s also Steven Matz, projected for 11 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA and FIP, and Zack Wheeler who is anticipating a summer return for Tommy John.

Syndergaard is my pick to click and deliver a masterful season. He’s only had one full season under his belt, he has the highest upside and produces greater strikeout numbers.

The Mets will make the playoffs, whether it be a NL East crown or claim a Wildcard spot. Their pitching is too good not to, plus they’ll see the Phillies and Braves a combined 38 times.