MLB Awards: Dark Horse MVP Candidates
By Sean O'Leary
Projected Stats: .269/.358/.503, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 11 SB, 5.6 WAR
The Cubs are going to have a historic offense. Their drought could finally be broken because of it. Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, Heyward, Zobrist, Soler, and Russell are all part of a young group of talent, with Zobrist there as the verteran presence. And Bryant is there to lead them. He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, and had one of the best rookie seasons ever. The Cubs are hoping he will take another step in 2016.
These projections are a little off to me, though. 95 RBI is underselling Bryant greatly. With the way this offense is expected to go, if Bryant hits 3rd or 4th in that order, he might drive in 120 or more. He hit 99 last year, and they added two pieces in Heyward and Zobrist who will most likely hit ahead of Bryant. Those are two guys who will likely get on base a lot, and Bryant will be there to drive them in.
A .269 batting average is also worse than I expect Bryant to have. He hit .275 last year, and with a full offseason in Major League camp, and a season in the bigs under his belt, he can adjust. Maybe he will strike out less, and the average will go up. Maybe not a huge spike, a jump to .280 or .285 wouldn’t surprise me at all. He was a high .300s guy in the minors, but that doesn’t seem likely. His BABIP of .378 will drop, obviously, because that doesn’t seem sustainable. Even with a higher batting average, and he makes an adjustment, one will be made to him.
Bryant is one of the great young stars in this league. He has the upside of being in the league of Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt and that is rare. In the lineup he is in, he will put up insane numbers, and may have a season no one can project, especially with his upside.
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