MLB Awards: Dark Horse MVP Candidates
Opening Day is close. That means a start to a long campaign for the yearly MLB awards such as the Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and of course, MVP. Every year, you expect the usual players to win the awards, such as the Mike Trouts and Clayton Kershaws of the world. Sometimes, though, it’s the guys you don’t expect, such as Lorenzo Cain last season. Maybe they don’t win the award, but they definitely come close, or closer than you expected.
The Major League Baseball Most Valuable Player award is given to the best player in their respective league. However, there is one caveat; it is usually won by players on good teams. That means that even though they have the numbers, guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado won’t win the award.
Of course the normal guys are in the running, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, and so on. But maybe there are some guys you didn’t think of, at least on first thought. So today, I’m giving you those players.
Next: A young star..
Projected Stats: .269/.358/.503, 31 HR, 95 RBI, 11 SB, 5.6 WAR
The Cubs are going to have a historic offense. Their drought could finally be broken because of it. Rizzo, Schwarber, Bryant, Heyward, Zobrist, Soler, and Russell are all part of a young group of talent, with Zobrist there as the verteran presence. And Bryant is there to lead them. He won the Rookie of the Year award in 2015, and had one of the best rookie seasons ever. The Cubs are hoping he will take another step in 2016.
These projections are a little off to me, though. 95 RBI is underselling Bryant greatly. With the way this offense is expected to go, if Bryant hits 3rd or 4th in that order, he might drive in 120 or more. He hit 99 last year, and they added two pieces in Heyward and Zobrist who will most likely hit ahead of Bryant. Those are two guys who will likely get on base a lot, and Bryant will be there to drive them in.
A .269 batting average is also worse than I expect Bryant to have. He hit .275 last year, and with a full offseason in Major League camp, and a season in the bigs under his belt, he can adjust. Maybe he will strike out less, and the average will go up. Maybe not a huge spike, a jump to .280 or .285 wouldn’t surprise me at all. He was a high .300s guy in the minors, but that doesn’t seem likely. His BABIP of .378 will drop, obviously, because that doesn’t seem sustainable. Even with a higher batting average, and he makes an adjustment, one will be made to him.
Bryant is one of the great young stars in this league. He has the upside of being in the league of Harper, Trout, and Goldschmidt and that is rare. In the lineup he is in, he will put up insane numbers, and may have a season no one can project, especially with his upside.
Next: His teammate..
Projected Stats: .278/.373/.517, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 10 SB, 5.1 WAR
Rizzo, along with Bryant, is at the core of the young studs on the Cubs. After he struggled with the Padres in his first stint in the majors, he found a home in Chicago. He finally made the leap to stardom last year, hitting 32 home runs and 101 RBI, and now he’s in the best lineup in baseball. If Bryant hits in the 3 spot, Rizzo will most likely hit 4, and vice versa.
Rizzo is one of the vets on this team, and he has only been around since 2011. Most of these stats are about what Rizzo has done, so he might not progress. The only thing that you may see rise is his BABIP, which was at .289 last year.
He also never gets hurt. He played 160 games last year along with 701 plate appearances. If he continues on that trend the stats will add up, and maybe if rise compared what what people think.
Again, playing in the best lineup in baseball assists him in many ways. If he stays durable, he can put up those steady, great numbers, and maybe he will finish higher than 4th in the NL MVP race like he did last year.
Next: A star middle infielder
Projected Stats: .278/.343/.462, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, 4.6 WAR
After only one season, he’s the best shortstop in baseball. Yes, I said it. His upside is ridiculous, and he is drawing some crazy comparisons. He was highly touted as a prospect, and he didn’t disappoint at all. He edged Francisco Lindor for the Rookie of the Year award.
Correa is on arguably the best team in the American League. He and Altuve are the best middle infield in baseball. Correa’s upside is unmatched by any shortstop since.. Alex Rodriguez. He never really showed the power in the minors. In fact, the most he hit was 9 in a season. However, what he showed last year seems to be more than sustainable. His upside appears to be 30+ homers, and 100+ RBI. Yes, he only hit 22 and 68 last year, but that was only in 99 games. What if he plays 130 or 140 games? He could easily reach those.
That could mean a rise in batting average as well. .290 does not seem out of the realm of possibility for the young shortstop. In 117 games in 2013, he hit .320 in single A. That is high, but .290 or .295 is realistic. His BABIP could rise as well. It was .296 last year, and it’s projected to be .309 this year, which is reasonable.
Carlos Correa is going to be a super star in this league for a long time. What better way to kick it off by winning a Rookie of the Year award and an MVP award in back to back years?
Next: A steady stud..
Paul Goldschmidt
Projected Stats: .291/.401/.530, 30 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, 5.3 WAR
Goldy is by no means a sleeper or dark horse at all. It’s his team that is. The stats they are projecting for him are a joke, really. Last year, he hit .321 with 33 HR and 110 RBI, which he has sustained for multiple years now. To assume that his batting average and RBI would fall off is asinine.
Goldschmidt is a star in this league. His team made great moves this offseason, and now they have good pitching along with their great lineup. Along with Pollock, Goldschmidt will lead the best lineup in the NL West. His projected batting average will rise. Expect that to be over .300 and even above .310. His RBI will rise, too, probably to 110+.
Next: Scouting the top pitching prospects
It all depends on his team. If the Diamondbacks can get to a Wild Card, at the least, Goldschmidt will closely rival Harper for the MVP. There’s nothing more to say about Goldy, really. He is already a super star, but his team is holding him back. If his team makes the leap, Goldy will make the leap in MVP voting.