The Arizona Diamondbacks’ major offseason pitching additions, Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, were smacked around in their first outings of the year. Early season rust or cause for concern?
The Arizona Diamondbacks surprised more than a few people this offseason by moving aggressively to bolster their starting rotation. First they opened their checkbook in stunning fashion by agreeing to sign Zack Greinke to a mammoth six-year, $206.5 million deal in early December. Days later they swung a trade with the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller.
Greinke’s arrival lent instant credibility to the D’backs pitching staff. The perennial Cy Young contender is one of a handful of hurlers in the league truly worthy of the “ace” label. The 25-year-old Miller was also coming off a breakthrough season. He posted a 3.02 ERA in 205.2 innings and came one out shy of a no-hitter on May 17, making him look like a fairly attractive option for a number-two starter.
Both pitchers would likely take a do-over on their first starts in a D’backs uniform, however. In a very uncharacteristic outing on Opening Day, Greinke surrendered seven runs on nine hits in only four innings of a 10-5 loss against the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field. It was the most earned runs he had allowed in a start in four years.
Miller didn’t fare much better the following day. He gave up six runs on eight hits over six frames opposite the same Rockies. Fortunately, the Arizona offense bailed him out on the way to an 11-6 victory.
However, both starters shared one rather startling stat in common in their 2016 debuts: they each served up three home runs during their outings.
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Obviously, an individual start (one of hopefully 30+ during a full season) shouldn’t be overanalyzed. But it was somewhat jarring to see both of these pitchers hit so hard to start the new campaign. Both have traditionally been able to keep the ball inside the park throughout their careers. Greinke boasts a 0.8 HR/9 rate in his 13-year MLB lifetime, while Miller holds a 0.9 HR/9 in five big league seasons.
Arizona, of course, has never been a particularly easy place to pitch. The ball typically travels well in the dry Southwest air, as Chase Field averaged 112 homers for every 100 allowed in a league average park from 2010-13. Greinke and Miller’s previous homes, Dodger Stadium and Turner Field, are decidedly more forgiving.
They surely won’t keep serving up long balls at this rate, but it’s not unreasonable to expect the two pitchers to regress from their impressive campaigns of a year ago. No matter where he pitched this season, Greinke would likely have a difficult time replicating his 1.66 ERA from 2015. Nevertheless, he still seems a safe bet to turn in a strong first season for the D’backs. Prior to Monday’s shelling, Greinke owned a 3.33 ERA in 10 career starts in Arizona.
Miller is somewhat of a different story. Though his stellar first half (2.38 ERA in 18 starts) sent him to his first All-Star Game last year, he was much more ordinary after the break, putting up a 3.83 ERA in his final 15 outings. At age 25, it isn’t quite clear yet what kind of pitcher he’s going to develop into, but the D’backs will hope it’s closer to the one he was in the early months of 2015.
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At the very least, Greinke and Miller should help lead a significant improvement over the Arizona rotation of a season ago, when they posted a 4.37 ERA (23rd in MLB) as a group. Even with the loss of A.J. Pollock, the team has a capable lineup that should be able to support its starters. Whether they fulfill their postseason ambitions, however, likely hinges on just how good their new one-two starting pitching combination can be.