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Tigers will see if Gerber’s power is legit in 2016

By Brody Hilgenkamp |
Mar 19, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Mike Gerber (75) watches the rain during a delay in the game against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium. The game was called after 2 innings of play. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 19, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; Detroit Tigers right fielder Mike Gerber (75) watches the rain during a delay in the game against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium. The game was called after 2 innings of play. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

With Minor League Baseball starting today, the Detroit Tigers will start to learn a lot about a potential power hitter.

Today is Minor League Baseball’s Opening Day! Now that games have started, prospect writers like me will have lots of baseball to digest. Trevor Story’s record-setting power display with the Colorado Rockies is the early prospect storyline of the season, but there will surely be more.

Teams use the first few weeks of the season to gauge the momentum, or lack thereof, their prospects will carry through the rest of the season. A strong start often can lead to a breakout performance. Last year’s best example was Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Blake Snell, who didn’t allow a run until May 23, his ninth start of the season.

Earlier, I mentioned that the Athletics were going to learn a lot about third baseman Matt Chapman this season. The same could be said about Detroit Tigers prospect Mike Gerber. Gerber has been a steady hitter for a long time. He had a career .826 on-base plus slugging with 27 home runs in four seasons at Creighton University, including 11 home runs his senior season.

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After the Tigers drafted him in the 15th round of the 2014 draft, Gerber hit .286/.354/.493 with seven home runs in 57 games in the New York-Penn League. (He also played eight games in Class A.)

The production didn’t stop there. Last season he hit .292/.355/.468 with 13 home runs in a full season in the Midwest League, earning him the Tigers’ minor league player of the year. Then he hit .280/.371/.440 in the Arizona Fall League. He even had a 1.103 OPS during spring training.

Including his AFL stats, Gerber has posted a 135 weight runs created plus as a professional hitter, according to FanGraphs, meaning he’s been hitting well above average. In that time he’s shown a strong feel for the strike zone, drawing walks in 8.4 percent of his plate appearances while only striking out in 17.7 percent. That discipline, plus his impressive .177 isolated power, suggests the Tigers have a future major league power hitter.

While the numbers—and many scouting reports—speak highly of Gerber, there are some areas of concern. One is that most of Gerber’s plate appearances last season came against pitchers who were younger than him, as he was one of the oldest players in the league. Hitting against more advanced pitching will reveal a lot about Gerber’s offensive skill.

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The Tigers sent Gerber to the Florida State League to start the season, meaning Gerber will have to produce in one of the stingiest offensive leagues. A strong showing there and a mid-season promotion to Double-A means the Tigers have a legitimate power prospect on their hands.

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