MLB: 5 hot starts that won’t last in 2016
The grass is turning green again, pretty girls are starting to walk around with less layers on and the smell of summer is in the air, or at least just around the corner if you live in Cleveland. There’s plenty to be excited about as well with the MLB season now in full swing.
Whether you’re a fantasy baseball person, a fan of a specific team or just a fan of the game in general, you’re probably aware a lot of hype surrounds players off to hot starts. Trevor Story in Colorado has been the poster child for such hot starts in 2016. But will it last?
As always, baseball is not a sprint — it’s a marathon. Here are five players profiling strongly right now who will likely fall from their pedestal in the coming weeks.
Next: Mat Latos
5. SP Mat Latos – CWS
Whether it was mental or physical in the past, Mat Latos was not right. A breakout season in 2010 with the Padres saw him put up some pretty solid numbers through to 2014 between San Diego and Cincinnati. A trade that offseason saw him land in Miami with the Marlins.
Overall in 2015, he appeared with Miami, as well as the Dodgers and Angels amidst spending some time in the minors. His ERA on the season was a pretty dreadful 4.95. Though his 3.53 FIP suggests a lot of bad bounces and poor luck came his way, Latos isn’t as good as his numbers would suggest with the White Sox right now.
Through two starts, he’s 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and a 0.500 WHIP. The two teams he’s faced, Oakland (4-7) and Minnesota (1-9), aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts. The Ahtletics’ team batting average of .212 ranks 26th across the league, while the Twins’ .206 ranks 28th. Considering some of the lineups the AL Central fields, it’s only a matter of time until Latos has to face Detroit or Kansas City and we see his ERA and WHIP inflate.
Next: Mark Trumbo
4. OF/1B Mark Trumbo – BAL
While he’s benefitting right now from a stacked lineup and a hitter friendly home park, Mark Trumbo is still a career .252 hitter at heart. It’s not a terrible batting average and his 26 home runs per season average since 2011 is definitely serviceable, but the current slash line of .400/.429/.800 is not built to last.
Trumbo’s lifetime OBP is only a hair above .300 and he strikes out in bunches as well. 30 long balls could be in the cards, but his inability to make regular contact will likely keep him below the 100 RBI mark, a feat he’s accomplished only once in his career when he had exactly 100 with the Angels in 2013.
There are better overall hitters in Baltimore’s lineup. The league’s opposition knows this and they will make a point of pitching to Trumbo for strikeouts and fly outs more often than not.
Next: Brandon Finnegan
3. SP Brandon Finnegan – CIN
Brandon Finnegan carried a no-no into the seventh inning of his last start against a pretty potent lineup in the Cubs. With two outs, catcher David Ross laced a single to center field off Finnegan and his bid for a place in the history books came to an end. Sure, he walked five batters before giving up that hit, but retiring that many Cubs hitters was still impressive.
Through two outings, the 23-year-old southpaw has logged two quality starts and compiled a pretty decent strikeout total of 14 in 12.2 IP. Finnegan flashed some potential at times in 2015, but his 2.84 ERA right now won’t hold up for much longer. His career BB/9 rate of 3.7 in the minors was a bit high.
Hitters in the show have much more discipline and fine tuned vision. Finnegan’s BB/9 in 2015 was 3.9. Eventually those will come back to hurt him. His command should get better with time, but he’s still young.
Next: Daniel Murphy
2. 2B Daniel Murphy – WAS
Amongst all qualifiers, Daniel Murphy leads the league in OPS (1.429), OBP (.571) and BA (.464). After his ridiculously power infused 2015 postseason where he rattled off seven round trippers and took home NLCS MVP for the Mets, Murphy definitely upped his value headed onto the free agent market.
His seven homers was only seven less than his career high in a single season, so Murphy isn’t really a viable candidate to hit 30 or even 20. He has two right now and a decent lineup to protect him, but Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon are there to drive in runs. Murphy’s job is to hit to contact and get on-base, as his lifetime OBP of .333 can attest to.
Murphy is a fine all-around player, but an ascension to superstardom would be a surprising turn of events in 2016 for the 31-year-old.
Next: Trevor Story
1. SS Trevor Story – COL
That’s right, Story’s opening week was unforgettable and historic in ways, but by the time May is here he will have cooled substantially. Think Joc Pederson circa August of 2015. Story’s six-game line of seven home runs, 12 RBI and a .333 average quickly made fans put memories of Troy Tulowitzki behind them.
However, while Story leads the league in home runs, he also leads MLB in strikeouts with 17. He has hit only .235 in week two, or his last four games. What’s more disturbing about Story right now than Pederson at this time last year is that Story has only two walks through his first 44 at-bats. In Pederson’s first 44 ABs last season, he had earned 12 free passes.
Next: Jim Leyland to manage team USA in 2017 WBC
Pederson may embody the three true outcomes of hitting, and thats certainly better than two outcomes — striking out or going yard. Story can’t swing for the fences in every at-bat. It won’t work, especially on the road away from Coors Field. He needs to learn to be a situational hitter and not a hero every time he steps in the batter’s box.