One of the warnings given when signing a player to a contract extension is to make sure that one is not overvaluing that player’s career season. The Boston Red Sox ignored that warning when they handed Rick Porcello his contract extension during Spring Training last season.
Porcello certainly did not make a great impression in Boston during that first year. A ground ball pitcher, Porcello struggled with the mediocre Red Sox infield defense, posting a 9-15 record with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.360 WHiP. Those defensive struggles caused Porcello to change his style, as he began throwing harder to generate more strikeouts, causing him to leave more pitches in the zone.
That extension is now in effect, with the Red Sox owing Porcello $82.5 Million over the next four years. On the surface, the logic of the extension, locking him in from ages 27 through 30, makes sense. However, even in his career year in 2014, when he posted a 15-13 record with a 3.43 ERA, good for an ERA+ of 113, he was just slightly above league average.
In his career, Porcello has been just below a league average starter, posting an ERA+ of 95. That is the type of performance that one expects from a back of the rotation starter, not someone being paid like the ace of the staff. Unless he makes a dramatic improvement, Porcello will be severely overpaid for the next four years.
Next: The Machine running out of steam