KC Royals Alcides Escobar Perfectly Imperfect Leadoff Hitter
The KC Royals seem to win when Alcides Escobar is batting in the leadoff spot. How long can that really last?
The KC Royals are a team that defies statistical analysis and general expectations. As a team based on making contact, playing strong defense and a stellar bullpen, they have proven over the past three plus years that their philosophy can succeed.
Another aspect of their winning ways also defies statistical analysis. Alcides Escobar does not profile as a typical leadoff hitter, but when he is atop the lineup, the Royals win. In fact, those winning ways go beyond Escobar batting leadoff; if he swings at the first pitch, the Royals firmly believe that victory is inevitable.
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In a game where teams tend to want to have a leadoff hitter that sees pitches and can draw a walk, Escobar is the polar opposite. In his 56 plate appearances, he has drawn just one walk while seeing only 3.04 pitches per at bat. As the major league average for pitches per at bat is 3.86, patience is not a part of Escobar’s profile.
However, Escobar does fit the ideal of what the Royals want. He has stolen three bases without being caught, and is tied for the American League lead with three triples. Escobar also has done a solid job of putting the bat on the ball, making contact in 78.9% of his swings. That contact rate, combined with his speed, certainly puts pressure on an opposing defense.
The problem is that Escobar just does not provide much offense at the top of the lineup. Even with his to put the bat on the ball, and a 21% line drive rate that is exactly league average, Escobar has a slightly below average batting average on balls in play of .292. As he is someone who tends to hit more ground balls than fly balls, this number should be higher based on his speed.
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A part of the reason for that relatively low BABip is that Escobar just does not hit the ball hard that often. These ground balls are not hard shots through the hole or at a defender; instead, they tend to be softer, easier chances to handle. In fact, Escobar would seem more suited to be hitting ninth than being a leadoff hitter.
The issue with removing Escobar from the leadoff spot, aside from the superstitious belief that the Royals win with him setting the table, is that they really do not have an ideal candidate for that place in the lineup. Alex Gordon may be the closest player the Royals have to a true leadoff man, but they need his bat in the middle of the lineup. As it stands, the Royals may have no other choice than to keep Escobar in the leadoff spot, despite his less than ideal profile for that spot in the lineup.
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The KC Royals win when Alcides Escobar hits leadoff. It is just another way that they continue to defy statistical analysis and expectations.