4. The Kansas City Royals vs. Pre-Season Projection Systems
Obviously this battle won’t take place on the field, but to some it feels like a fight for the soul of baseball. Two seasons ago, the Royals represented the AL in the World Series, and last year they finished the job as champions. For some this recent run of success by Kansas City has been completely unexpected. In particular, a few of baseball’s most well-known projection systems have been baffled by what the Royals are doing.
Joe Posnanski has a helpful summary of this unusual rivalry. In 2014, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system predicted the Royals to win 79 games. The Royals went on to win 89 and make a World Series appearance. Last season, PECOTA doubled down and projected a 72-win season for Kansas City. As you remember, they went on to win 95 games and a championship. At this point you would think maybe PECOTA would look at this team a little differently.
However, heading in to 2016 it was more of the same. PECOTA projected another low win total at 76. So far this season, the Royals are 9-4, and they have the best winning percentage in the American League. At this point, it’s hard to doubt Kansas City’s ability to overperform these early season projections. Up to this point, PECOTA vs. the Royals has been a rivalry, but it’s been one with lopsided results.
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