MLB: Five Fantasy Busts Thus Far

Few moments are better during the MLB season than the night of a fantasy draft. For months fantasy owners meticulously plan for how to end up with the most talent at each position. A lot of attention is given to sleepers who could potentially provide a lot of value at the bottom of a draft. It’s these players that can typically swing a fantasy league.

However, there’s another factor that can drastically impact a fantasy owner’s success. Nothing is more devastating than taking a player with a high draft pick, and that player not producing as expected. A bust at the top of the draft board can take a fantasy owner out of contention regardless of what the rest of their lineup is doing.

We’re only three weeks into the season, but there’s already a handful of players not living up to their draft slots. Barring injury, it’s likely that these players will turn things around and look more like the players owners were dreaming on. However, up to this point it’s hard to classify their seasons as anything other than disappointments. This list offers five players who have had surprisingly slow starts. Admittedly, more attention was given to players likely to be drafted in the first few rounds of a fantasy draft.

Next: A Slow Start in Colorado

Charlie Blackmon
Fangraphs End of 2015 Fantasy Ranking: #17

For the past two seasons Blackmon has been a solid choice as a fantasy outfielder. Not only was he on the cusp of 20 HR in both of those years (19 in 2014 and 17 in 2015), but he also hit for a relatively high average. However, what really helped Blackmon stand out was his value on the base baths. In 2014 Blackmon stole 28 bases, and last season he ramped up his production with 43.

Blackmon had other factors going in his favor as well. He gets the opportunity to play half of his games in Colorado, and he’s been incredibly dependable. In the past two seasons he’s played in at least 154 games. All of these things led to Blackmon being a fairly safe bet heading in to 2016.

Unfortunately for fans who drafted Blackmon, he’s had an abysmal start to this season. To be fair, he’s battled turf toe which has put him on the DL. Prior to his DL stint his offense was unrecognizable to the player from the past two seasons. He was hitting .185/.241/.333 with 0 HR and 1 SB.

Optimistically fans should hope for Blackmon’s return at the end of April. However, this is an injury that can linger, and will definitely affects his stolen base output. It’s possible that by this summer Blackmon will be producing like fantasy owner’s hoped, but for now he looks like he could be one of the bigger fantasy busts in 2016.

Next: A Struggling Ace in the Desert

Miguel Cabrera
Fangraphs End of 2015 Fantasy Ranking: #89

Since Miguel Cabrera’s debut in 2003 he has been one of the best hitters in baseball. Last season he struggled with a calf injury and only played in 119 games, but there was little reason for owners to pass on the thirty-three year old. When he’s at his best he’s one of, if not the, best hitters in baseball. Before his injury he was having another vintage Cabrera season. He still ended the year with 18 HR and 76 RBI while hitting .338/.440/.534.

So far in 2016 Cabrera has been okay at the plate, but he’s produced no where near his lofty standards. He’s hitting just .232/.317/.339, and he’s only hit one home run. Earlier this week George Sipple wrote that Tigers’ manager Brad Ausmus isn’t concerned with Cabrera’s struggles. His teammates also shrugged off the concerns. Just about everyone, fantasy owners included, expects Cabrera to eventually turn it around and look more like the player they expected him to be.

As mentioned above, Cabrera turned thirty-three in April. Fantasy owners have been expecting him to regress some for a couple of seasons now. However, up to this point Cabrera has been able to defy the odds, although his recent injury could be a sign that he’s slowing. Prior to last season he had never played in fewer than 148 games in the majors, and that surely put a lot of wear on his body.

It’s still more likely than not that he’ll start to hit, but at some point Miguel Cabrera must become mortal. Fantasy owners are holding out hope that this isn’t the season for that transition.

Next: Abreu's Unexpected Line

Jose Abreu
Fangraphs End of 2015 Fantasy Ranking: #43

When Jose Abreu came to the United States from Cuba many wondered how his skills would translate. While in Cuba he flashed 30+ home run power, but could he offer similar production against big league pitching? In 2014 and 2015, the answer was clearly yes. Abreu hit 36 HR in his rookie season and added 107 RBI. Last season, he crossed the 30 HR (30), 100 RBI (101) mark again, and established himself as one of the best power hitters in baseball. Fantasy owners would be crazy to pass up that kind of production.

However, 2016 has been a very different story for Abreu. He’s still hitting for power, he currently has three home runs, but his batting line has fallen off a cliff. Last season Abreu hit .290/.347/.502, but so far he’s only managed a .190/.284/.362 line. It’s great that he’s still producing in one to two categories, but most fantasy owners drafted Abreu expecting all around offensive production (minus steals). Yes, he’s still valuable, but he’s clearly not producing at the level that fantasy owners expected.

As with most hitters on this list, Abreu should rebound in the coming weeks. He’s been too good over the past two seasons to continue to hit this poorly. One obvious culprit of his slow start has been an unusually low BABIP. Currently his BABIP sits at .211 compared with .333 a season ago. Some of those balls being caught for outs should start to drop in for hits.

Next: What's Wrong with a Cincinnati Slugger?

Joey Votto
Fangraphs End of 2015 Fantasy Ranking: #33

If you were to look up “consistent” in the dictionary you would likely find a picture of Joey Votto. Since 2007 he’s produced at least a 124 wRC+, and in 2015 he had the second or third best offensive season of his career (172 wRC+). The quad injury that plagued him during the 2014 season appeared to be squarely behind him. Fantasy owners had very few reasons to expect anything but a great season out of the Cincinnati slugger.

This spring training gave owners even more reason for optimism. Votto hit .455/.529/.636 this spring, and he looked primed for a vintage Votto season. However, the regular season has been anything but vintage Votto. He currently boasts an unthinkable 27 wRC+. His .172/.258/.241 line looks unrecognizable when compared to his career stats. He’s walking less, striking out more, and he’s only driven one ball out of the ballpark.

Next: Can Stephen Strasburg Make the Leap

It’s been said a lot, but there’s no reason to assume that Votto won’t right the ship soon. Like Abreu an out of place BABIP is partly to blame. His .205 BABIP is well below his career average of .332. It’s not time for owners to panic, but up to this point they’ve received very little of the production they expected out of Votto.