MLB Teams Poised to Heat Up Entering May
It hasn’t even been a month and Major League Baseball has already seen plenty of storylines that sent shock waves throughout the league. Trevor Story set the world on fire after blasting homer after homer to start his career, Aroldis Chapman received a groundbreaking suspension for domestic violence, Kyle Schwarber got injured and will miss the season, and… Bryce Harper is still Bryce Harper.
Many of the expected contenders have started rounding into form as the Chicago Cubs and Kansas City Royals own two of the best records in baseball. But, rather surprisingly, the other Chicago team own the best record in the American League and own a 1.5 game lead over the defending World Series champs. Some of baseball’s bottomfeeders like the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies got off to solid starts, but have quickly plummeted back to Earth.
Arguably the most notable story line to start the season, however, has been the Houston Astros ineptitude. After saying hell to a rebuild and clinching a playoff berth last season, the ‘Stros were expected to come out of the gates firing and easily win the AL West. Instead, they’re sitting at a putrid 6-14. Similarly, the Minnesota Twins were expected to build off a solid season last year, but are owners of the same record.
With that in mind, here’s five teams that are likely to heat up come May.
Next: Deep in the heart of Texas
Houston Astros (6-14)
We’ll give the Astros the benefit of the doubt. They’re a young team in a weak division and came off an offseason of celebration. That’s fine. It happens. But now it’s time to get back on track. Last year’s Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel hasn’t looked like himself, Carlos Correa hasn’t surpassed Mike Trout as the best player in the division, and Carlos Gomez is still struggling in the post-Milwaukee era of his career.
Let’s start with the offense. It’s been average, at best, and that’s putting it lightly. They’ve scored 78 runs this season and are owners of a .243 team batting average. If they hope to compete, the team’s veterans will need to step up their production. Correa has been one of the lone bright spots, as he’s owner of a .292/.378/.472 slash line while blasting three home runs.
His infield partner, Jose Altuve, has been even more dominant. The soon to be 26-year-old is hitting .321 with five home runs and an impressive 0.69 strikeout to walk ratio. Oh, he also has nine steals. There’s MVP potential in the 5’6″ second baseman this season.
Along with them, George Springer and Colby Rasmus have managed to hit for both contact and power, while rookie Tyler White has solidified his role as the everyday first baseman going forward. The struggles begin, however, with Evan Gattis, Jason Castro and Luis Valbuena. If any of the three continue to struggle, it’s likely Houston will seek outside help.
The starting rotation is where the real trouble starts, though. Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been bad by any means, but his 3.71 ERA and 3.71 BB/9 rate are far from what the team was hoping for to start the year. His 3.15 FIP is a positive sign going forward, although his velocity has been slightly down. Outside of Keuchel, things get ugly.
Doug Fister is proving to be a bust free-agent signing, Scott Feldman is still Scott Feldman, Mike Fiers is nowhere near the no-hitter version of himself and Collin McHugh is a train wreck with a 7.56 ERA. The team will be banking on the return of Lance McCullers in the next few weeks.
The bullpen has also had its issues, as offseason addition Ken Giles has been a disaster since losing out on the closer job to start the season. Closer Luke Gregerson has been electric, however, as he’s posted a 1.13 ERA with four saves.
If the pitching rotation can get itself sorted out and one more bat can start to produce, the Astros will be back in contention in a weak AL West.
Next: Even year magic
San Francisco Giants (10-11)
Putting the narrative that it’s an even year and the San Francisco Giants are expected to compete aside, the team has a very solid combination of savvy arms and potent bats. Buster Posey has yet to round into form, but he’s flashed signs of his MVP-esque production, while Madison Bumgarner is still shaking off the rust from the offseason.
Aside from Posey, the offense has been led by Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Denard Span and Joe Panik, who have all been consistently getting on base and providing a bit of power. Angel Pagan has been the team’s best hitter, though, as he’s currently hitting .356/.407/.493 with 14 runs scored. While he likely won’t keep up that production for the remainder of the season, the Giants will look to ride his hot streak in the coming weeks.
The main concern with the lineup comes from Brandon Crawford and Matt Duffy, who are both struggling to repeat their breakout 2015 performances. Duffy hasn’t been bad by any means, but his OBP (.291) has been an issue, while Crawford simply isn’t making consistent contact (.235 BA). Both are bound to improve, as Crawford has maintained a decent OBP while Duffy is still driving in runs. Posey has also started to heat up, as he’s raised his slash line to a respectable .279/.342/.441 to go along with three homers.
With Bumgarner at the top, offseason additions Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija have settled into their middle of the rotation roles by posting ERAs in the mid threes. As they get more acclimated in San Francisco, they should begin to improve.
Jake Peavy and Matt Cain have struggled mightily at the bottom of the rotation with ERAs above six, and will need to improve if the team hopes to catch up to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The bullpen has been solid, as closer Santiago Casilla has settled in nicely during his second season closing out games.
At fourth in the league with 104 runs scored, the Giants don’t have many problems – and it’s just a matter of time until they break out and go on a winning streak.
Next: Heading north of the border
Toronto Blue Jays (10-11)
A rip roaring offense was expected to carry the Toronto Blue Jays in 2016, but a few of their key contributors have not yet started producing at elite levels. Pitching has actually been Toronto’s calling card to start the season, as the bottom half of their starting rotation has stellar.
At the top of the rotation, Marcus Stroman has hit some bumps in the road on his quest to become the staff ace, but he’s still enjoying a solid season regardless. Stroman’s main issue has been his failure to strikeout batters, as he owns a lowly 4.35 K/9. That should improve as he progresses beyond his sixth start, however.
41-year-old R.A. Dickey has struggled behind Stroman, and it’s unclear how much longer he can effectively pitch at the major league level – although he went six innings while giving up only three runs in his last start. The bright spots in the rotation have come from the trio of Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez, as all own ERAs either below or near three.
The bullpen competition between Robert Osuna and Drew Storen entering the season worked out in the former’s favor, and it’s clear why. Storen struggled to start the season, but has had two straight outings without giving up a run. There could be another competition brewing if Storen continues to get back on track and if Osuna struggles.
While the Blue Jays offense hasn’t been bad – they rank 9th in the league with 90 runs scored – it hasn’t been earth shattering like many expected. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista have yet to heat up in the power department, but that should come as the temperature also rises. Reigning MVP Josh Donaldson is producing eerily similar numbers to last season, and it’s possible he repeats if he can lead the Jays to success this season.
Michael Saunders is proving himself after winning the left field job over Dalton Pompey, as he’s hitting .345/.406/.569 with 11 runs scored and seven doubles.
The problems stem from Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin, who are both batting under .200 and look lost at the plate. Tulowitzki has a .690 OPS with four home runs, and while he’s stumbled to start, he hit two home runs on April 24 against the Oakland Athletics. Martin, in the second year of his beefy contract, is hitting a putrid .154/.237/.173 with a 42.4 percent strikeout rate. With Josh Thole as the only other catcher on the roster, Martin will need to get things figured out quick. It should be noted that his defense has also been worse than season’s past.
Next: Just avoid the one game playoff
Pittsburgh Pirates (11-9)
The Pittsburgh Pirates are no longer dependent on the production of Andrew McCutchen as fellow outfielders Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco have developed into studs, but the team is much better off when McCutchen plays well. Last season, McCutchen got off to a cold start that stretched into June – but once he broke out of it, the team was on track to be very competitive for much of the season.
With a .213/.337/.347 slash line and only two home runs through 19 games, McCutchen will need to ramp up his production soon if his Pirates hope to catch up to the Chicago Cubs. At 11-9 and in second place in the division, the Pirates will have a hard time winning the division, but will more than likely contend for a Wild Card spot once again.
The rest of the lineup has looked dominant, as John Jaso has settled in as the leadoff hitter while David Freese looks to prove his doubters wrong. Josh Harrison has settled into his permanent position as second base, and the lineup is due for another boost with the impending arrival of Jung Ho Kang, who will be activated off the DL within the next few weeks.
Outside of the lineup, the team’s pitching has been one of the reasons they’ve yet to go on an extended stretch of wins.
Outside of ace Gerrit Cole (2.70 ERA), the starting rotation has been less than impressive. Francisco Liriano has been solid, but has yet to follow-up his first dominant start of the season with an equally impressive performance. Jeff Locke, Jonathan Niese and Juan Nicasio have been serviceable, but it’s possible the Pirates will turn to one of their top pitching prospects if they don’t heat up by midseason.
Next: Cubs Sit Atop Power Rankings This Week
With Cole at the top and McCutchen poised to heat up, expect the Bucs to be in a heated battle with the Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals throughout the next month. Pittsburgh will face off against St. Louis three times and will start the month at home against the Cubs, before heading to Chicago the following week for another three-game set.
All stats accurate as of April 26.