Cincinnati Reds: What's wrong with Joey Votto?

Cincinnati Reds star Joey Votto hasn’t been himself so far in 2016, but there are several factors to explain his struggles.

Since his debut in 2007, Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds has been one of the best hitters in baseball. His greatness at the plate is most obvious when considering his approach. Two of the past four seasons he has led MLB in walks, and from 2010-2013 he led the NL in OBP. Over the course of his career, Votto has been a very patient hitter who understands the value of getting on base.

That’s not to say his productivity was completely OBP-driven. He’s also displayed a good deal of power. Six times in the past ten years he’s hit at least 20 home runs, and he led the NL in slugging in 2010. There aren’t many hitters in baseball who can claim to have been as consistently good as Votto. Even in 2014, when he struggled with a quad injury that diminished his power, he still had a 125 OPS+ and hit .255/.390/.409.

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However, the start to 2016 has looked like anything but a vintage Joey Votto season. As of today he’s hitting .221/.311/.312 with 2 HR and 11 RBI. Those numbers looked even worse before he tallied hits in five of Cincinnati’s last six games. This recent run hints that Votto is beginning to come out of his slump, and in a month or two it’s likely these struggles will be forgotten.

Regardless, this level of productivity still feels very out of place for one of baseball’s best hitters. Are there any concrete reasons that explain Votto’s lack of productivity up to this point?

He’s walking less

If Votto is known for one thing it’s taking walks. He takes so many walks that it’s occasionally drawn the ire of Reds play-by-play man Marty Brenneman. In 2014 Jonah Keri wrote that there are times Votto’s passivity hurts Cincinnati’s offense, although he made clear that Votto often takes too much criticism for this. Votto has heard the criticism, but he’s also made it clear he’s not changing his approach. However, early in 2016 his BB% is out of line with what we’ve come to expect.

Since 2011 Votto’s BB% has been at least 15.3 percent. That number rose as high as 20.6 percent a season ago. Most expected more of the same from Votto in 2016, but so far his BB% has dipped all the way down to 11.1 percent (league average is 8.5 percent). Maybe he’s forcing it a little trying to get out of this slump. It’s possible that he is slightly changing his approach in order to drive in more runs. In the coming months Votto’s BB% should fall more back in line with his career averages, but for now it’s definitely taking a toll on his OBP.

His BABIP is down

When a consistently good hitter is struggling one of the first places to look is their BABIP. According to Fangraphs, league average BABIP typically hovers around .300. However, certain players might naturally run averages a little above or below that number. Once a player has played a few major league seasons their BABIP typically becomes fairly consistent.

One of the reasons for Votto’s struggles in 2016 might simply be bad luck. Currently his BABIP is .268 which is well below his career average of .356. Some of Votto’s batted balls that are turning into outs should start to drop in for hits, and once that happens his stats will look more Votto-esque. Claiming that a player has simply been “unlucky” isn’t the most exciting analysis, but in the case of Votto that claim is likely fair so far.

He’s pulling the ball more

Another pillar of Votto’s success at the plate has been his willingness to hit the ball to every part of the field. The chart below shows the relevant batted ball data for Votto over the past few seasons (data courtesy of Fangraphs).

Season

Pull%

Cent%

Oppo%

2013

31.232.3

36.5

2014

35.830.6

33.5

2015

37.136.9

Yet this season has looked very different from Votto’s typical profile:

Season

Pull %

Cent%

Oppo%

2016

46.725.0

28.3

It’s obvious that Votto is pulling the ball more in 2016. While this might be an attempt on his part to generate more power, it’s also likely the the source of some of his struggles.

According to the available data (again Fangraphs), teams have played Votto in a traditional defensive alignment a little more than they have shifted against him. Votto has 33 PA against a traditional alignment and 25 PA against the shift. There is a significant difference in Votto’s production in these two scenarios.

Alignment

PAAVG

BABIP

No Shift33.344

.333

Shift25.167

.160

If Votto is going to pull the ball more, he’s going to play into the hands of teams that are shifting against him. Again, it’s likely that his batted ball profile will slowly fall in line with his career norms, but for now the additional balls that he’s hitting into the shift could be a contributing factor to his struggles.

Next: Joe Girardi Wants to Ban Shifting

Conclusion

Given Votto’s track record it’s likely that these concerns will ultimately be much ado about nothing. It’s hard to imagine a hitter who has been this good for ten years being as bad as he’s been in 2016 for long. It’s likely he’ll start to walk more, have better luck and increasingly take the ball the other way. There are clear reasons for Votto’s struggles in 2016, but there’s also ten years worth of data to suggest that he’ll turn it around.

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