MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL MVP candidates thru April

The first month of the season is always a strange one en route to the MLB awards showdowns.  You have perennial All-Stars that seemingly fall off a cliff, newcomers exploding onto the scene and a few veterans begin what will become career seasons. It’s a time for simultaneous over-reaction and skepticism, doubt and hope. It’s also a time when a few players show that they’re going to take a run at the most coveted personal award of the regular season.  The NL MVP race has begun, and it’s fast and furious one.

Related Story: Top 5 AL MVP Candidates Through April

Notably missing from the early action is Paul Goldschmidt, the man who has been runner-up two out of the last three years. Goldy started the season extremely slow, hitting just .229 through the first two weeks; a far cry from the .321 he put up last year and his career average of .297.  Don’t count him out just yet though, as the past ten games he has turned a corner, hitting .300/.523/.633 with an incredible 16 walks.  Goldschmidt will find his way back into the race as the days get longer and the months get hotter.

After signing late into February, Dexter Fowler is actually the NL leader in fWAR heading into May, slashing a blistering .347/.474/.613 and more than making up for the Cubs early loss of Kyle Schwarber. However, with his .426 BABIP and a high home run rate sure to come down significantly over the next few months, it will be hard for the 30-year old to sustain his productivity levels.

Similar things can be said about young Mets phenom Michael Conforto. After showing off his power in a 56 game sample last year the future might hold a few more kicks at the proverbial MVP can down the road. He’s off to a .365/.442/.676 start and has established himself quite firmly in the World Series finalist’s lineup.

With that said, there are a number of other players tearing up the senior circuit through April. Let’s take a look at the Top 5 NL MVP candidates.

Honorable Mentions: Trevor Story (COL) and Neil Walker (NYM)

Next: Number 5

4. Yoenis Cespedes – NYM

.294/.360/.676, 7 HR, 23 RBI, 0.9 fWAR

When Yoenis Cespedes was traded to the Mets mid-season last year, it’s like some sort of switch was flipped. In the 75 games he has played in a Mets uniform, the Cuban slugger has hit 24 home runs, driven in 67 and slashed .289/.343/.621.

He received NL MVP votes last year despite only playing in 57 games after switching leagues. This year has been even better, pushing that average closer to .300 and sitting near the top in HR, RBI and ISO. These marks come even with missing a few games due to a leg injury suffered after diving into the stands after a foul ball.  Cespedes made sure to prove there were no ill-effects in his return to the starting lineup on the 29th though, as he drove in six runs on two hits including a grand slam off Giants reliever

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Cespedes, hitting 4th in the dangerous Mets’ lineup, should give himself a chance at a 120-plus RBI season and could finally result in him breaking into the top three for MVP votes.  With 113 home runs in three seasons and a month, I certainly wouldn’t count him out.

Next: Number 3

3. Jake Arrieta – CHC

5-0, 36.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 10 BB, 32 K, 0.9 fWAR

There is something magical about a no-hitter. It’s that once-in-a-lifetime feeling that you get as the innings start to tick away, zero after zero going up on the board.  Most players don’t ever get to experience it in any capacity, and the lucky few that do will count it among their greatest baseball memories.

Jake Arrieta must be getting all filled up on memories lately.  The Cubs’ right-hander threw his second no-hitter in eleven starts on the 21st of April, carving through the Cincinnati lineup with relative ease. His 1.00 ERA isn’t the best on his team – that would go to Jason Hammel and his 0.75 mark – but it’s still damn impressive. Pair that with his history-making performance, the fact that he’s won 23 out of his last 25 decisions (28 starts overall) and a Cy Young from last year gives you the recipe for a prime MVP who is a pitcher.

Arrieta has more no-hitters than losses in his last 23 starts.

If he were to win the award this season, he would join Clayton Kershaw (2014) as the only pitchers to win the NL MVP since Bob Gibson in 1968. If Rizzo is the leader of the amazing group of hitters the Cubs have put together, Arrieta is his pitching counterpart.  The Cubs currently have four starters in the top 20 for ERA (Hammel, Arrieta, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks) and are rivaling the Mets for the best rotation in baseball.

It’s just icing on the cake that he’s also hitting .231/.286/.462 over his 14 plate appearances this year, belting a home run – the third of his career – off of Shelby Miller in his second start. He’s also striking out less than Trevor Story and walking more than Neil Walker. If there’s anything Arrieta can’t do, we haven’t found it yet.

Next: Number 2

2. Nolan Arenado – COL

.305/.371/.695, 11 HR, 25 RBI, 1.5 fWAR

When the Rockies decided to change courses last year and dealt long-time franchise player Troy Tulowitzki, it’s because they had a new superstar waiting in the wings.  Nolan Arenado‘s rise to the top was easy to miss, with him dropping to the second round in his draft year, and never climbing into the top 20 of any prospect list.

All Arenado has done since his debut is dominate, starting with a gold glove in his rookie season. He’s won two more since then, and is the surest bet you could make in baseball that he’ll take home his fourth consecutive award this season.  It was last year’s offensive explosion however that really put him on the map as a legitimate superstar.

After having respectable power numbers for his first two years in the Majors, Arenado took off last year and tied for the league lead in home runs, while leading all of baseball in RBI.  His defense didn’t suffer a bit, and he went home with an 8th place finish in the MVP voting, hurt mainly by Colorado’s lackluster season.

This year he’s right on track to push for that trophy, as he again is leading the NL in home runs, runs scored and RBI while sitting fourth in ISO. Just like Rizzo, Arenado has actually been unlucky this year, as his BABIP sits at a very low .239. His line should actually improve over the course of the season, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NL West.

Next: Number 1

1. Bryce Harper – WAS

.272/.390/.679, 9 HR, 24 RBI, 1.2 fWAR

Despite the emergence of players like Rizzo, Arenado and Cespedes, last year’s MVP remains the runaway favorite to win the award again. Bryce Harper showed the world last year why he was the most hyped prospect in the history of baseball and has thrown himself into the conversation for best player of his generation.

His unanimous selection as the 2015 NL MVP came on the heels of an absurd offensive season which saw Washington’s slugger hit .330/.460/.649 while tying Arenado for the league lead in home runs.  Somehow he only drove in 99 runs on a disappointing Nationals team, but he is on track to break the 100 threshold for the first time this year.

Harper had struck out fewer times than he had left the yard for the first three and a half weeks of the season, and ended April with only 13 punch-outs.  His nine home runs fall just behind Arenado and Story, doing so without the benefit of playing home games at Coors Field. He’s second in RBI with 24 through 24 games and has even stolen five bases already, just one fewer than he did all of last season.

Next: Top 5 NL ROY candidates through April

With Washington owning the second best record in baseball through the first month, the rest of the league will be hard pressed to take the trophy away from Harper if he manages to lead them back to the playoffs. Even if they don’t make it to the postseason, the 23-year old has the potential to win more than a handful of these before he hangs up his cleats. Don’t bet on anyone dethroning him just yet.