MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL ROY candidates thru April
With one-sixth of the 2016 season in the books, it’s time to start keeping an eye on the top MLB awards candidates. The National League has some exciting story lines unravelling right now before our eyes.
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The Colorado Rockies have a rookie shortstop flirting with leading the league in home runs, while the perpetually competitive St. Louis Cardinals are getting a lot of production from some new names after the offseason departure of veteran Jason Heyward and injuries to Jhonny Peralta and to a lesser extent, Kolten Wong.
While strong starts are not imperative to a Rookie of the Year campaign, it definitely doesn’t hurt. Last season, Joc Pederson was white hot out of the gates for the Dodgers, but faltered mightily in the second half. Slow and steady won the race, as Kris Bryant captured the NL ROY award in 2015 despite not hitting his first home run until his 21st game of the year on May 9.
Without further ado, here are the five front-runners to follow in Bryant’s footsteps this season. All stats current through May 1.
Honorable mentions: OF Jeremy Hazelbaker (STL) and RHP Seung-hwan Oh (STL)
Next: Number 5
5. Corey Seager – LAD
.242/.303/.384, 14 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB, 0.4 WAR
Sure, Hazelbaker might be off to the better start offensively here, but Corey Seager‘s track record is far more impressive and Los Angeles Dodgers fans caught a glimpse of his real potential in 2015 through 27 regular season contests. A then 21-year-old middle infielder hit .337/.425/.561 with four homers and 17 RBI. He slumped some in the postseason, but Seager’s pedigree and .307 career batting average through four minor league seasons works heavily in his favor over the long haul.
Viewed almost universally as a “can’t miss” prospect, Seager is said to have a higher ceiling than brother Kyle of the Mariners, who has seen four consecutive seasons of hitting 20-plus home runs and driving in 65 or more base runners.
Corey has a more disciplined plate approach than a lot of hitters his age. He’s struck out only 16 times in 99 at-bats this year, while Hazelbaker has been punched out 23 times in 64 at-bats. Eventually, Seager’s patience and ability to make contact will start paying dividends with a spike in his productivity.
Next: Number 4
4. Steven Matz – NYM
21 IP, 3-1, 3.86 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 1.52 WHIP, 22 SO, 0.5 WAR
Southpaw Steven Matz delighted Mets fans in six starts last year. Amidst an NL East pennant run, a 24-year-old Matz burst onto the scene in late June and early July, rattling off two quality starts before being called upon again four times in September. He went 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA before making three playoff starts, having marginal success at 0-1 with a 3.68 ERA.
So far in 2016, Matz is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA. All but his first start of April was of the quality variety. He’s second amongst all NL rookies with 22 strikeouts and is just one of many young pitching assets the Mets seem to be firing off an assembly line in recent years.
Matz is playing for a winner and contributing to the big picture. The defending NL champion Mets are 15-8, nipping at the ankles of the first place Nationals in the NL East. With Matz’s efforts supplemented by the likes of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey in the rotation, it’s difficult to find a better group of starting pitchers in the National League.
Next: Number 3
3. Aledmys Diaz – STL
.405/.436/.703, 18 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB, 1.7 WAR
The St. Louis Cardinals as an organization knew something a lot of casual baseball fans didn’t — Jhonny Peralta‘s replacement wasn’t a free agent waiting to be signed or Jedd Gyorko. His name is Aledmys Diaz and he was playing in Triple-A during the 2015 season.
Diaz has been a revelation for the Cards at shortstop. He, Hazelbaker, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty look to be the future core of position players for this baseball team. Diaz currently leads the NL in a number of statistical categories, including slugging percentage and OPS and is second in AVG. Will it last? Not likely. But the 25-year-old Cuban can hit. Through Sunday’s games and 78 PAs, he had struck out only five times.
Diaz hit only .276 across two seasons and three levels of minor league ball, but as a teenager for five seasons in the Cuban National Series he hit .307/.397/.439 in 1122 at-bats. It’s looking right now like an injured Peralta has seen his job security seriously dwindle over the course of this seasons first four weeks.
Next: Number 2
2. Trevor Story – COL
.247/.308/.660, 19 R, 10 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, 1.0 WAR
The good news is, the Colorado Rockies have a powerfully apt replacement for Troy Tulowitzki at shortstop. The bad news is, it feels like Trevor Story is swinging for the fences with every hack he takes. He’s seen his batting average drop from .333 in week one of April to .292 through two weeks to .271 through three to where it currently sits now at .247.
With the power and his NL leading three triples, also comes the strikeouts. Story has 39 of those and leads the league. There’s going to be peaks and valley’s in his rookie season while the 23-year-old Texan tries to make a name for himself in MLB.
Story’s defense has been okay for the Rockies, having committed only three errors in all of April. But his UZR of -4.0 is a ways behind Tulowitzki’s seventh ranked 1.8 in Toronto. Story currently ranks 30th at his position in that category. Clearly though, people aren’t following him for his defense. All the attention is on Story for making history as a freshman who looks like he could lead the NL in home with five months to go.
Next: Number 1
1. Kenta Meada – LAD
32 IP, 3-1, 1.41 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 0.938 WHIP, 28 SO, 1.4 WAR
Kenta Maeda did not allow an earned run to cross home plate on his watch until his third MLB start. Three of his five starts have seen no earned runs scored on him and all but one start did not qualify as a quality start. Andrew Friedman’s belief in letting Zack Greinke walk via free agency is starting to show some credence, as Maeda has been one of the most effective pitchers in the game through his first five outings.
At 28, Dodgers fans will hope Maeda wasn’t overworked during his time playing pro ball back in his native Japan. But in the short-term and for as long as he is successful, $3.125MM per season for this right-hander is looking to be a substantial bargain.
Righties are hitting .226 off Maeda, while lefties are hitting only .182 against him. When you factor in his one home run hit on the season is more than a majority of Braves have, it’s fairly evident that this Japanese import is having a pretty special debut season in MLB. Believe it or not, the last Dodgers pitcher to win an NL ROY was not Clayton Kershaw, but fellow countryman Hideo Nomo back in 1995.