Philadelphia Phillies: 5 reasons they are exceeding expectations
Many thought the Philadelphia Phillies would be one of the league’s worst teams this season, but that hasn’t been the case so far. What factors have contributed to their early success?
The 2016 season was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Philadelphia Phillies. It still might be before all is said and done. But for the month of April and now stretching into May, the Phils have not been playing like a team resigned to the fate of a bottom-feeder.
They entered this week at a cool 15-10, and though losing three of four to the St. Louis Cardinals has dropped them to 16-13, they’re still definitely outpacing even the more optimistic of projections. At the season’s outset, this looked like a squad that would probably battle with the Atlanta Braves (currently a league-worst 7-20) to stay out of the NL East cellar.
These Phillies could very well come back down to earth (more on that later), and even if they keep their heads above water they still have two of the best teams in baseball to contend with in their division in the Washington Nationals and New York Mets. Nevertheless, at the moment they appear ahead of schedule in the first year of the new era led by president Andy MacPhail, GM Matt Klentak and manager Pete Mackanin.
So what in particular is working for the Fightin’ Phils right now? Here are five reasons for their surprising better-than-.500 start.
Next: Young Guns
Young Arms Anchoring Rotation
If you want to take a closer look at the Phillies’ surprising start, the rotation is a pretty good place to begin. Two hurlers in particular are leading the charge: Vince Velasquez and Aaron Nola.
Velasquez, acquired in the Ken Giles trade with the Houston Astros during the offseason, has not only been Philadelphia’s best starter so far, but one of the most effective pitchers in the league. In 31.1 innings, he has allowed only five earned runs for a 1.44 ERA that currently ranks sixth among NL starters (min. 20 IP).
Nola, the Phils’ first round pick in the 2014 draft, made his debut last July and has come roaring out of the gate in his first full major league season. In 40 frames he sports a 2.93 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 6.29 K/BB ratio.
The best part about the early success of this pair of right-handers? These guys are young: in the first week of June, Velasquez will turn 24 and Nola will be 23. Add 25-year-old Jerad Eickhoff into the mix, and this group has the makings of a very strong pitching staff for years to come.
Next: Successful Sophomore
Herrera Building on Rookie Campaign
The ultimate success or failure of a rebuilding project often comes down to whether young players can make their mark on the big league level. A former Rule 5 pick, center fielder Odubel Herrera came out of nowhere in 2015 to put together an impressive rookie campaign. He slashed .297/.344/.418 with eight home runs, 41 RBIs and 16 stolen bases while accumulating a solid 3.8 WAR.
This year he’s off to an even better pace. Through 123 plate appearances, Herrera owns a .316/.447/.439 batting line. Not typically known for his power, he has also swatted three homers so far, giving him a very real chance of surpassing last season’s total by a significant margin.
Overall, the Phillies offense has been underwhelming, making Herrera’s early performance at the plate even more valuable. He leads the team with a .886 OPS (min. 75 PA); third baseman Maikel Franco is second at .722.
Only 24 years old, Herrera appears to have legitimate major league staying power. The Phils hope players like him, the aforementioned Franco (23 years old) and upcoming shortstop prospect J.P. Crawford (21) can form a young core for the future of the franchise.
Next: The 'Mad Scientist'
Pitching Coach Bob McClure
Bob McClure has been the Phillies’ pitching coach since 2014, and with the team’s early success on the mound this season, he’s finally getting some much-deserved recognition. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently wrote a story on McClure, his pitching philosophy and the effect he’s having on Philadelphia’s young arms.
A coaching veteran of the Royals and Red Sox, McClure is credited with helping mold Zack Greinke into a Cy Young winner in Kansas City. Although that’s a high standard to live up to, the Phils hope that he can work some of the same magic on their crop of youngsters.
Based on what we’ve seen from Velasquez and Nola so far, McClure is having a positive impact on the club’s new-look staff. Rosenthal notes that a team official dubbed him a “mad scientist” because of his creativity and experimentation. With a renewed focus on the curveball (per Rosenthal, Phillies pitchers throw it an MLB-leading 19.8 percent of the time), the team currently boasts the sixth-ranked pitching staff in the NL by ERA (3.86).
Next: Old Meets New
Mix of Veterans and Young Players
Most of the Phillies’ old guard is gone by now. Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels all made their exits in the past couple seasons. Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz are the last two remaining members of the 2008 World Series championship team.
Although the veteran first baseman and catcher’s days with the team are likely also numbered as the franchise’s makeover continues, they’ve already made an impact on their younger teammates. Howard offered “awesome” feedback to hitters during Spring Training. Ruiz, despite his relegation to backup duties behind Cameron Rupp, also has wisdom to impart on the next generation of Phillies.
Sometimes the right combination of youth and experience can make all the difference both in the clubhouse and on the field, lifting a team’s overall performance. Right now, things seem to be working well for the Phils with a young foundation and a few key elder statesmen.
Next: Run Differential Be Damned
They’re Winning Close Games
The Phillies currently own a -27 run differential, the seventh-worst mark of its kind of all of Major League Baseball. That doesn’t exactly seem like a recipe for success. The squad has done very well in close games, however, which has helped keep its record above .500.
Of the Phils’ 16 wins, a staggering 15 of them were decided by three runs or fewer. And out of those, nine were won by only one run. This team isn’t going to outslug anyone; they’re ranked 27th in runs scored (90) and 29th in OPS (.638). But they’ve been eking out enough nail-biters to keep themselves afloat.
The other side of the coin, though, is that this trend probably won’t last. It’s going to be difficult for the Phillies (or any team, for that matter) to keep coming out on the right side of so many close contests for the duration of the season.
Next: 5 Fantasy Relievers to Watch
If they continue getting good pitching, they have a shot, but it’s hard not to look at that run differential and think they’re due for a regression soon. It may have already started with their series loss to the Cardinals this week.
How do you view the Phillies’ eyebrow-raising first several weeks? Sound off in the comments below.