Toronto Blue Jays: Has J.A. Happ really turned over a new leaf?
Is there a more efficient pitcher right now on the Toronto Blue Jays’ staff than J.A. Happ? The bullpen probably doesn’t think so.
The 15-15 Toronto Blue Jays saw their bats awaken some in a Thursday night drubbing of the Texas Rangers. On the strength of 15 hits, leading the way was Edwin Encarnacion with three total and six RBI in the 12-2 win. Quietly though, amidst the offensive onslaught, Jays starting pitcher J.A. Happ continued to impress.
While other pitchers his age are deteriorating, Happ is finding success like never before. The 33-year-old southpaw is the only starter to begin 2016 with a quality start in every outing. He has spun six straight to open the season — eight if you go back to the previous year with Pittsburgh.
Back in 2009 with the Phillies, Happ had a great season in the rotation. He went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA in 166 IP, including pitching two shutouts that season. Since then, he never really built on that success. From 2010-14, he posted a 38-48 record while with the Phils, Astros and Jays. Starting 112 and appearing in 120 games, his ERA during that stretch was 4.56 and his FIP 4.33.
While with Seattle in 2015, Happ was very average (4-6, 4.64, 4.12 FIP) until a trade to the Pirates on July 31. As a Pirate, he went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA and a 2.19 FIP. It’s an odd thing, because Safeco Field favors pitchers more heavily than does PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Yet Happ thrived pitching in the talented NL Central for baseball’s second half.
Now back with Toronto and teamed up with outfielder Michael Saunders, the player he was originally traded to Seattle for back in December of 2014, Happ finds himself back in a hitter friendly home ballpark once more, but he’s not been deterred.
The 4-0 start with a 2.50 ERA is promising. Happ certainly seems to be worth the $36MM over three years the Blue Jays agreed to pay him, for the time being. The one disconcerting number is his FIP so far in 2016 — 4.11. It’s not all that far off from his career mark of 4.21. Is his hot streak destined to turn cold in 2016?
Happ’s K:BB ratio of 2.50 is nothing special, either. It’s better than his 2.15 career mark, but his K/9 (5.67) this year is down from a lifetime rate of 7.6. He’s still getting a lot of outs with balls hit in the air, as well. While Aaron Sanchez leads Jays starters with a 2.25 GO:AO, Happ is fourth with a 0.79 mark, slightly better than Marco Estrada‘s 0.65. Another troublesome stat, given that fly balls at Rogers Centre eventually have a propensity to start leaving the park in bunches.
Happ is obviously getting good defensive play behind him right now and he’s not systematically giving up a lot of hits or walks when there are already runners on base. That doesn’t take away from the fact he’s still allowing a lot of batters to reach base, with an LOB% of 87.8. Right now, Happ is doing well at pitching himself out of jams, but that will eventually catch up to him given his other metrics.
Further evidence supporting Happ’s early winning ways can be found in run support. While the Blue Jays are yet to capitalize regularly with offensive outbursts like they did in 2015, they are giving their southpaw an average of 6.33 runs per outing, good for 10th most in MLB. However, more encouraging stats are present, also. While opponents are hitting him at a reasonable .253 clip right now, they aren’t connecting on his fastball. Last season, batters hit his fastball .245. So far in 2016, they’re hitting a lousy .210 against it.
Next: Cubs pitching staff has silent x-factor
For all of the mixed bag of treats J.A. Happ is showing Toronto Blue Jays fans this year, he has been getting the job done. There’s no verdict yet on if Happ is the real deal this season. We’ll need a bigger sample size to determine that. The early results are both confusing and pleasing at the same time.