Jackie Bradley was expected to be an important part of the Red Sox as a top prospect. Now, a couple of years later, is he finally having that breakout performance?
If you asked someone to name the most important pieces of the Boston Red Sox offense, you would likely get a couple of answers. Most would immediately mention David Ortiz, but after that there are a few names you might hear. Veteran players like Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez would probably make an appearance on such a list. Young starts like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogarts would also likely get mentioned.
However, there’s a surprising name at the top of the Red Sox offensive leaderboard in 2016. By wRC+ (FanGraphs) and OPS+ (Baseball Reference) Jackie Bradley has been the second most productive hitter in Boston’s lineup. Since the Red Sox acquired Bradley, fans have been hopeful that he could be a key contributor in the lineup. Up until last August those hopes had gone unrealized. However, at this point the question is worth asking. Has Jackie Bradley turned a corner? Are there reasons to believe that he’s finally breaking out?
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Bradley first popped up on the radar of baseball fans during his three years at South Carolina. Michael Baumann summarized Bradley’s time there this way, “For three years he was one of the smartest, savviest players in the college game, a small guy with average speed who became an elite hitter and the college game’s best defensive outfielder.” In 2011 the Red Sox made Bradley a first round pick, and there were high hopes for the 5’10, 200 lb. outfielder.
Throughout his time in the Red Sox farm system Bradley displayed his prowess as a hitter. However, his first stint in the majors didn’t turn out as hoped. Bradley started the 2013 season on the big league roster, but he was eventually sent down due to his offensive struggles. Over the course of 2013 he hit .189/.280/.337 which contributed to a 68 wRC+. Even though the early results were disappointing, there was still hope Bradley could adjust.
He spent all of 2014 at the major league level, but his offensive production was even worse than the year before. This time his wRC+ dropped all the way to 46, and his batting line was an uninspiring .198/.265/.266. Why did Boston keep him in the lineup given those numbers? A lot of that was due to Bradley’s production in centerfield. By DRS (15) and UZR (15.9) he was a top three center fielder in 2014. His defense kept him in the lineup, but clearly something needed to change at the plate.
Last season it appeared that Bradley was on track for more of the same. For the first four months of the season he was still below average at the plate, but in August his production became unrecognizable. Out of nowhere he spent the month hitting .354/.429/.734 with 5 HR and 23 RBI. No one expected him to stay that hot, but those numbers gave fans hope that just maybe he could still figure things out.
This season Bradley hasn’t been as good as he was last August, but he’s still been much better than his previous track record would suggest. Through 31 games he’s hitting .303/.353/.550, and his 147 wRC+ trails only Ortiz in the Red Sox lineup. How is this happening? What exactly has led to Bradley’s breakout over his past few months of baseball, and are there reasons to suggest that he can keep it going?
If you wanted to dismiss Bradley’s success at the plate as a matter of good luck you could make that argument. Currently he has a .377 BABIP which is the 16th highest rate among qualified hitters. This was clearly a factor during his white hot August in 2015 (.451 BABIP), and those two numbers are quite a big higher than his career .300 BABIP. Given this information it’s likely Bradley will regress some throughout the season, but has all of his newfound success been a product of good luck?
Bradley’s zone profile from Brooks Baseball shows one obvious reason for his hot streak. The most obvious difference between Bradley pre-August 2015 and post-July 2015 is that he’s punishing the ball in the zone. A quick look at the charts below reveal that if he makes contact in the zone having a profound new level of success.
Why is Bradley having so much more success when he makes contact? There might actually be a few mechanical adjustments that help explain Bradley’s development at the plate. Last season, Matthew Kory of FanGraphs offered a fairly thorough discussion of changes that Bradley has made. It’s well worth a read if you’re interested, but his basic conclusion was that Bradley has taken steps to “simplify” his swing. This gives credence to the idea that Bradley’s increased production might have some staying power.
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Is Jackie Bradley finally breaking out offensively? The sample size is still fairly small, and the evidence could be used to argue yes or no. Those who want to see Bradley’s production as a product of good luck can do so. However, those who want to find mechanical reasons that Bradley has been better can do so as well. My best guess is that Bradley’s numbers will regress some, but that we’re also seeing a different hitter at the plate from his first few seasons.