Chicago Cubs: What does Stephen Strasburg extension mean for Jake Arrieta?

By Tim Haberin |

Apr 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jake Arrieta (49) pitches during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

Jake Arrieta implied that he’s worth more than the big-money extension just signed by Stephen Strasburg. Is he right, and will the Chicago Cubs pay up?

Stephen Strasburg‘s contract extension with the Washington Nationals sent waves throughout the baseball world. For one thing, it set yet another precedent for what frontline starting pitchers might demand on the open market in the years to come.

When you think about elite-tier hurlers in the game today, the Chicago Cubs’ Jake Arrieta instantly springs to mind. The reigning NL Cy Young winner is enjoying another dominant campaign in 2016, boasting a perfect 6-0 record and a league-best 1.13 ERA over 48 innings thrown. Oh yeah, and he also tossed his second career no-hitter on April 21 against the Reds.

While the ace right-hander will be arbitration-eligible next season, he is currently set to become a free agent prior to the 2018 campaign. If he indeed makes it to that point while still performing at this level, he’ll naturally be an extremely hot commodity, even at age 32. And Arrieta himself already has a few ideas about the kind of deal he’ll be signing.

In the wake of the Strasburg news, reporters asked Arrieta to assess his own value in comparison to the Nationals hurler. “I’ll let you judge that,” he said, “Just look at the numbers.”

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Arrieta continued, “That’s why starting pitching is so valuable. There’s not many guys that can pitch at the top of the rotation floating around the league.”

Obviously, age is one of the primary factors separating Arrieta from Strasburg. Famously a late-bloomer at the big league level, Arrieta toiled for several years with the Orioles before it all clicked for him in the Windy City. He didn’t post a full-season ERA under 3.00 until 2014 at the age of 28.

Strasburg will be turning 28 in July, which presumably factored into the Nats’ willingness to hand him a seven-year, $175 million pact. His new deal will keep him in the nation’s capital through age 35, but he can also opt out at after 2019 or 2020 at age 31 or 32. Either way, Washington hopes the arrangement will allow them to avoid most of his decline years. Keep in mind that Strasburg also missed nearly all of 2011 while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

However, as Arrieta mentioned, there are also “the numbers” to consider. While both are fine pitchers, Arrieta is clearly the superior one at this moment in time. Since the beginning of 2015, he is 28-6 with a 1.66 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 4.38 K/BB ratio. Strasburg struggled in the first half of last year (5.16 ERA in 13 starts) before a midseason DL trip seemed to help him right the ship. He sports a 2.26 ERA in 17 outings since August 8, 2015.

“I’ll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers.”

Contracts aren’t drawn up in a vacuum, however. There’s much more to the picture when it comes to offering a player a long-term commitment. While Arrieta has convincingly answered all his doubters over the past couple seasons, it’s worth wondering how the next several years of his career might go, particularly in light of his rapid rise out of mediocrity.

If Arrieta continues to baffle major league batters and hits free agency after 2017, a better recent comparison might be Zack Greinke. The 32-year-old Greinke tested the market this winter, and it rewarded him handsomely with a six-year, $205 million deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The righty also has a Cy Young under his belt and was just coming off a 19-win, 1.66 ERA campaign for the Dodgers.

Baseball is notoriously unpredictable, but from an optimistic perspective, Arrieta has a legitimate chance of adding another Cy Young and perhaps even a Word Series championship to his mantle before free agency. If he enters the market on that kind of high, it’s not hard to imagine a club taking a Greinke-esque approach, offering a contract in the range of five or six years, but for a massive amount of money per season. He could definitely eclipse the value of Strasburg’s deal that way.

For what it’s worth, Arrieta has stated that he won’t give the Cubs a hometown discount either. “I made it clear I like Chicago,” he said. “I think everyone knows that. If I had it my way, I’d stay here. That’s just one side of the story. We’ll see.”

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From where the Cubs stand, it might be a good idea to continue exploring what it would take to lock their ace up now. The two sides reportedly held discussions in the offseason, but Arrieta held firm on a seven-year deal, which Chicago wasn’t inclined to give.

What kind of contract do you think Arrieta has coming his way? Sound off in the comments below.

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