MLB: Will the Draft Hold Up the Next CBA?
Draft Manipulation and the CBA: Recent Examples
I mentioned that the first manipulation was a common practice, so pointing out examples would take up an entire post.
Instead, we’ll explore the second and third manipulations I’ve mentioned. I’ll actually mention the third one first. The best example of this actually turned out quite well for the team in the “signable” player that they chose to go for. In the case in point, the Chicago Cubs used their #4 selection in the 2014 draft to select a catcher from Indiana University that they knew they could sign for less money than the slot required. Thus, Kyle Schwarber came into the fold.
The Cubs used the money they saved on college picks Schwarber, Jake Stinnett, and Mark Zagunis to pay heavily to three high school pitchers with big upside that had fallen, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, and Dylan Cease. Interestingly, Stinnett and Zagunis have been very solid prospects and we all know what Schwarber has become, and the high school pitchers have shown some promise, but none have panned out quite yet.
The Big Manipulation
The thing that is getting a lot of attention from the press and from MLB upper level types worried about the fairness of play among teams is the manipulation I discussed in scenario #2 on the previous page.
The most recent and blatant example of this was the Houston Astros last summer. Many reported before the draft began that Daz Cameron, a player who was expected to go in the 7-15 range in the draft, had a deal with the Astros for their later pick. This led to the assumption that the Astros were going to draft a player with the #2 overall selection that they could sign for a below-slot deal. That selection was Alex Bregman from LSU.
They also had picks #5, 37, 46, and 79 in the top 100 picks of the draft. With the #5 selection, they had another deal in place with a high school outfielder, Kyle Tucker, whose brother Preston Tucker was in the Astros system already. If you look around those first 3 selections, in order to get those two high school outfielders, the Astros picked college players in 7 of the first 10 rounds to help afford their move.
After the draft, it came out that Cameron had an $4M bonus set up with the Astros.
In light of this, many are seeing a possibility of multiple teams doing this same exact type of move in the 2016 draft, especially since the 2016 draft is labeled as having solid depth in talent, but not any necessarily elite talent at the top of the draft. You could see the Padres, Reds, Braves, Phillies, and even the Cardinals make some moves flexing their draft pool.
This kind of draft manipulation would likely have the same effect as the 2010 draft having 3 early picks not sign turn into a slotting system to encourage signability. How will they be able to quell this manipulation, though?
Next: Possible Solutions