MLB History: 5 biggest outlier seasons by active hitters
Sometimes, it all just comes together for an MLB player in a given stretch. Hot streaks can last days, weeks, months… or an entire season.
By definition, an outlier is a statistical observation point that is distant from other observations.
It’s not irregular for baseball players to see a sudden spike in their production over an extended period of time in comparison to what the norm is for them in their career. Perhaps one of the truest examples of this can be found in Roger Maris‘ historical 1961 campaign with the Bronx Bombers.
The product of Fargo, ND had never hit more than 39 home runs in a season until ’61 when he surpassed Babe Ruth‘s mark of 60 for the most long balls ever hit in a single year. In doing so, Maris beat teammate Mickey Mantle out in the race to 60. Mantle would go on to hit 162 more home runs after ’61 en route to 536 in his career.
Maris — who was 26 when he broke Ruth’s then record — would never hit more than 33 in another single season and finished his baseball career with 275 total. At only 34, Maris retired following the 1968 season.
Here are the five greatest outlier seasons by active MLB hitters. Stats from the current 2016 season are excluded.
Next: Josh Hamilton 's 2010
5. Josh Hamilton
Outlier season: 2012 – 133 GP, .359 BA, 95 R, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 8 SB, 7.5 oWAR
Best otherwise: 2008 – 156 GP, .304-98-32-130-9, 6.0 oWAR
Career averages excluding outlier season: 112 GP, .282-64-21-76-6, 2.70 oWAR
Few have put into question the raw talent of Josh Hamilton, though many have done so with his discipline and durability. In 2010, a then 29-year-old continued his insurmountable comeback from drug addiction to playing and starring in Major League Baseball.
Not only did he comeback, but he crushed the competition. Hitting .359/.411/.633 with the Rangers was a true feat for the former first overall draft pick. His power numbers actually dipped a bit in terms of career bests for home runs (43, which he would hit in 2012) and RBI (130 in ’08).
Hamilton’s ratio numbers were off the charts that season though. Since 2000, only him along with Ichiro Suzuki, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Nomar Garciaparra have hit .359 or better in the American League. His 1.044 OPS was also the 15th highest mark by any AL player in the 21st century.
That 2010 season raised Hamilton’s career batting average eight full points from .282 to .290. He is yet to suit up thus far in 2016.
Next: Curtis Granderson 's 2007
4. Curtis Granderson
Outlier season: 2007 – 158 GP, .302 BA, 122 R, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 26 SB, 6.2 oWAR
Best otherwise: 2013 – 156 GP, .262-136-41-119-25, 6.3 oWAR
Career averages excluding outlier season: 122 GP, .256-72-21-55-11, 3.2 oWAR
Curtis Granderson is the only person on this list whose best oWAR season isn’t considered the true outlier. In 2011, Granderson did a lot of special things including leading the American League in runs scored and batted in.
However, his 2007 with Detroit was historical for a number of reasons. His 23 triples tied for the second most in a single season dating back to 1920 and was the most in a season since Dale Mitchell hit 23 for the Indians in 1949. Granderson had as many three baggers that year as he did home runs.
Given the number of doubles he hit in that season as well as the bases he stole, he joined the 20-20-30-20 club, accounting for the 23 triples, 23 homers, 31 doubles and 26 swiped bags he had.
The last player to accomplish that feat was Frank “Wildfire” Schulte of the 1911 Chicago Cubs. Granderson also batted .302 that season, the first and only time in his career he surpassed the mark. His lifetime batting average is modest .256.
3. Joe Mauer
Outlier season: 2009 – 138 GP, .365 BA, 94 R, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 1 SB, 7.6 oWAR
Best otherwise: 2006 – 141 GP, .347-86-13-84-8, 6.2 oWAR
Career averages excluding outlier season: 129 GP, .309-66-9-53-5, 3.95 oWAR
Joe Mauer has been an excellent high contact hitter his entire professional career. His lifetime average is .312 and even now at 33 he’s hitting .295 in 2016. Mauer’s power numbers have been fairly sporadic throughout his career, though.
Never more so than his 2009 campaign, when he socked 28 dingers. It marked the first and only time in his life he hit more than 20 and was his highest mark since 2006 when he had 13. From the day Mauer entered the league in 2004 until now, only five times has he hit 10 or more home runs in a year.
His lowest total where he managed to register 450-plus at-bats came in 2014, when he went deep a mere four times. 2009 was special because Mauer was named AL MVP that season, but he also set personal bests in a number of ratio categories.
His .365/.444/.587 slash line and 1.031 OPS were all high marks in the AL that season, as well. Oddly enough, Mauer’s 76 walks that year were only the fourth most by him in a single season for the Twins’ franchise player.
Next: Chase Headley 's 2012
2. Chase Headley
Outlier season: 2012 – 161 GP, .285 BA, 95 R, 31 HR, 115 RBI, 17 SB, 6.4 oWAR
Best otherwise: 2013 – 141 GP, .250-59-13-50-8, 2.9 oWAR
Career averages excluding outlier season: 137 GP, .260-58-9-53-7, 1.95 oWAR
New York Yankees third baseman Chase Headley has made nearly $39MM in career earnings. Only about one week ago, the former Padre turned 32 and afterwards hit his first home run of 2016. Ever since his stunning 2012 season, Headley’s skills and production have been a mystery wrapped in a riddle.
Headley’s outlier season didn’t come in a contract year, but 2013 would mark his first season where he would be arbitration eligible. 2012’s output saw his salary jump from $3.475MM that season to over double the following year at $8.575MM.
His $14MM salary in 2016 makes him the fourth highest paid third baseman in MLB. When you look around at the pool of talented players at his position in recent seasons, there are a number of players more deserving of Headley’s earnings. It’s fitting though that if anyone was going to overpay for a mediocre position player at third base, it would be the New York Yankees.
Headley is presently hitting .192/.282/.253 and reallybhas no business being an everyday starter in a Major League lineup.
Next: Jacoby Ellsbury 's 2011
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
Outlier season: 2011 – 158 GP, .321 BA, 119 R, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 39 SB, 7.4 oWAR
Best otherwise: 2013 – 134 GP, .298-92-9-53-52, 4.1 oWAR
Career averages excluding outlier season: 111 GP, .281-68-7-42-37, 2.45 oWAR
Surprise surprise, another player now donning pinstripes alongside Chase Headley whose best seasons also appear to be behind him is on this list. Although Jacoby Ellsbury is a more serviceable player than Headley, he is yet to justify his seven-year, $153MM deal signed in December of 2013 to play for New York.
Ellsbury’s 32 round trippers and 104 RBI in 2011 are 16 and 35 more than his second best single season totals, respectively. Only twice in his career has he hit double digit home runs in a season. It’s an odd thing too, because Yankee Stadium is just as favorable a hitters park as Fenway is, if not more so.
A career .288/.343/.424 hitter with a good range in center field and the ability to hit leadoff, Ellsbury is usually in the running to compete for a stolen bases title in a given season.
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However, there must have been something in the water in Boston in 2011, as his power numbers came from out of nowhere. Even his 46 doubles have never been approached again, as his next best count came when he hit 31 in 2013. Ellsbury finished second behind Justin Verlander in AL MVP voting in 2011.