Houston Astros showing farm system depth
Despite their early season struggles, the Houston Astros’ depth in the minor leagues is shining brightly; plus more minor league notes.
Sometimes it pays off to suck. Unless it’s the NBA draft lottery, but that’s a different discussion. It may not pay off right away, but it’s been widely recognized that being really bad at baseball now can mean you’ll be really good later.
The most obvious examples are the Chicago Cubs, Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros. The Cubs are cleaning house in the National League Central and the Royals are the defending World Series champions. Both teams were terrible not too long ago. The Astros surprised everyone with their playoff run last season, and even though they’re off to a rough start in 2016, the evidence that they’ve prepared themselves for years to come is all over their minor league system.
Monday I discussed shortstop prospect Alex Bregman’s chances of making his major league debut this season. He’s currently dominating the Double-A Texas League with nine home runs and a 1.126 on-base plus slugging (OPS).
In that discussion, I also mentioned that third baseman Colin Moran could make his major league debut, which he did Wednesday, going 0-for-3 with a walk. Tony Kemp, who could fill a super-utility role for the Astros, made his MLB debut Tuesday as a pinch runner and was 2-for-3 with a double yesterday. For a team that entering Wednesday was last in the majors with a 25.7 percent strikeout rate, Kemp’s 15.0 percent K-rate and .410 OBP in Triple-A is a welcome addition.
Pitcher Joe Musgrove has a microscopic 0.57 earned run average between Double-A and Triple-A. That’s just 0.34 if you only take his Double-A innings into account, and those came with a 10.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s scheduled to make his second Triple-A start today against the Memphis Redbirds.
The Astros’ depth is evident in the lower levels of the minors as well. Kyle Tucker, an outfielder whom the Astros drafted with the fifth overall pick in the 2015 draft, is hitting .323/.399/.436 and is leading the Midwest League in stolen bases with 18.
Add in David Paulino’s miniscule 1.74 ERA and 5.67 K/BB at Double-A, and most of the team’s top-10 prospects are living up to their billing. And with that, let’s get to some additional juicy minor league notes.
Next: Triple-A
Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Braden Shipley is in the midst of his best professional season. He has the lowest ERA of his career (3.35) as well as his lowest walk rate (1.30 per nine innings) and his highest K/BB (4.86).
Shipley’s success is a product of allowing more groundballs than in past seasons. He is getting 1.70 groundouts for every out in the air, the highest rate of his career. Groundballs aren’t as dangerous as fly balls, especially in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so he’s keeping the damage against him to a minimum: Shipley has allowed just one home run in 48 1/3 innings and opponents are slugging just .384 against him.
The Diamondbacks’ rotation is not pitching as well as the front office had hoped when it signed Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers and traded for Shelby Miller. Entering play Wednesday, the rotation was 21st in the majors in home run rate (1.30) and 23rd in fielding independent pitching (4.56).
Miller and Patrick Corbin especially have been plagued by home runs—they had a 2.06 and 1.62 HR/9 entering Wednesday—so if and when the team decides it needs a boost in its rotation, Shipley could provide it.
Phillies pitching prospect Zach Eflin tossed seven scoreless innings yesterday and allowed just two hits and struck out seven. Eflin is having a career year of his own, posting career lows in ERA (2.36), batting average allowed (.185) and has his highest K/BB (5.57). He joins Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola as young Phillies pitchers off to hot starts.
Cubs catching prospect Willson Contreras is hitting .343/.429/.543 over his last 10 games. He is second in the PCL in walks-per-strikeout (1.27) and is slashing .339/.437/.500 this season, all career highs.
Next: Double-A
The Texas Rangers’ farm system is having a great season—just look at what Nomar Mazara is doing. That goes for all levels of the minors, and in the Texas League, two hitters are leading the way. Entering Wednesday Ryan Cordell and Ronald Guzman were second and seventh in the league in weighted on-base average at .467 and .409, respectively. Cordell leads the league in home runs (10) and slugging (.699) and Guzman is in the top 10 in every traditional slash line statistic.
Neither one can sustain his current pace. They were also second and sixth in batting average on balls in play at .400 and .394, respectively. Cordell’s career BABIP entering this season was .328 while Guzman’s was .321, so they should see their production slow down. But how much?
Cordell’s power has exploded, as he’s already within shouting distance of last season’s 18 home runs and is slugging more than 250 points higher. The power surge should level out, but regardless Cordell could be making a huge leap this season. For Guzman, other than an impressive .321/.374/.434 line during his first professional season in 2012, his 2016 season is blowing his career production out of the water, so significant regression should be expected.
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chih-Wei Hu has been the most stingy pitcher in the Southern League. He leads the league with a 0.54 ERA and is second in FIP at 2.18. But perhaps the most noteworthy number concerning his season is that he’s stranded 91.7 percent of the runners to reach base against him, which hasn’t been many. Hitters are hitting just .220 and he’s only walked eight batters in 33 1/3 innings.
Chance Sisco is having a career year for the Bowie BaySox. The Baltimore Orioles catcher is hitting .337/.443/.408 and has just 15 strikeouts in 30 games. Sisco has always been an adept hitter, but it’s his progress defensively that is eye-catching: Entering play Wednesday he had thrown out 40 percent of base stealers, double his career high.
Next: Class-A Advanced
The Astros’ Bregman isn’t the only shortstop having a great 2016. In fact, there are several shortstops just in the Florida State League who are living up to their high prospect rankings. The New York Yankees’ Jorge Mateo is the most noteworthy example. Mateo is third in the league with a .915 OPS and leads the league’s shortstops with five home runs. He is at or near career highs in batting average, OBP and slugging.
The Pittsburgh Pirates Kevin Newman, a 2015 first round draft selection, is second in the league in batting (.360) and is second in OBP (.418). Newman is the most contact-happy hitter in the league, boasting the league’s lowest strikeout rate (5.0% entering Wednesday) and a low walk rate (8.6%) to go with it.
Amed Rosario of the New York Mets is having a career season, slashing .312/.361/.487 with three home runs, which is already tied for a career high with the three he hit in 2013 while in the Appalachian League. Add in Nick Gordon of the Minnesota Twins, who is slashing .328/.364/.467, and shortstops are ruling the league.
The Cleveland Indians’ Justus Sheffield is making steady improvements as he’s climbing the minor league ladder. His 2014 season was unimpressive, but he put together a 3.31 ERA and struck out 138 batters in 127 2/3 innings in 2015. So far in 2016, he has a 2.76 ERA and is holding hitters to a .236 average. In his most recent start Monday, he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed no runs on five hits.
The San Diego Padres’ Dinelson Lamet is also improving on a strong 2015 performance. Lamet has a 1.67 ERA in the California League and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in four of his starts.
Next: Class A
At this time, we should all wish the Washington Nationals’ Victor Robles a very happy birthday. The outfielder turns 19 today, and he is doing what most teenagers struggle to do: whip minor league pitching.
He’s actually cooled down lately. He’s hitting a measly .250 over his last 10 games, but that doesn’t tell the story of his season. Robles is slashing .338/.426/.504, all of which put him in the top 10 of the South Atlantic League. He’s also hit four home runs and has struck out just 20 times in 36 games.
Robles slashed .313/.408/.484 in 2014 as a 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League and followed that up with a .352/.445/.507 line between the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League and the New York-Penn League. Robles is MLB.com’s No. 59 prospect, and if he keeps hitting like he has been he could crack the top 40 when rankings are updated mid-season.
Justin Donatella, a pitcher in the Diamondbacks organization, had a bit of a rough outing last time on the mound, but it wasn’t entirely his fault. In the third inning, a catcher’s interference and two errors helped five runs cross the plate and Donatella lasted just 2 2/3 innings.
That has been his only rough outing this season. In all of his other starts he’s lasted at least 5 2/3 innings and allowed two runs or fewer. He’s third in the Midwest League in K/BB (7.00) and is eighth in ERA (1.41). He was named the D-backs’ Minor League Pitcher of the Month for April.
Next: Five prospects on the major league doorstep
Mitch Keller of the Pittsburgh Pirates is also having a stellar season. Entering Wednesday he led the SAL with an absurdly high 16.00 K/BB and was third in the league with a 1.10 ERA. In his Sunday outing, Keller tossed seven innings and allowed two runs on five hits. He began the year with three consecutive starts of five shutout innings and struck out 10 batters in two of them.