Philadelphia Phillies Tied for First, But Will it Last?

The Philadelphia Phillies may be the biggest surprise in baseball thus far this season. How long can that remarkable run to start the year continue?

Take a look at the Philadelphia Phillies roster and count how many names you recognize. Two, maybe three? Sure, there’s Peter Bourjos, the former center fielder that kept Mike Trout in left field for a season. There’s also Jeremy Hellickson, a budding star with the Tampa Bay Rays who’s seen his career go in the wrong direction since leaving Florida. Ryan Howard has been a shell of his former self for years.

And then there’s Maikel Franco. The 23-year-old third baseman with a smooth swing and hair that would make Allen Iverson jealous who has been hailed as the future of the organization for the past two seasons.

But those players only make up a portion of what’s sparked the Phillies remarkable turnaround this season.

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Odubel Herrera entered the 2015 season as the biggest question mark in baseball. A Rule 5 draft pick that had never played above Double A or in the outfield, the Phillies slotted him in as the starting center fielder, and now he’s arguably the team’s best hitter.

Aaron Nola, like Franco, has been long hailed as the future of the team, except as a pitcher. At only 22, Nola has a mean curveball to offset a fastball that rarely reaches above 91 mph. But with command unparalleled at his age, Nola is quickly emerging as one of the top starters in the National League.

When the Phillies began the season 0-4, following a sweep from the lowly Cincinnati Reds, not many batted an eye. Just another season for a team waiting for prospects to emerge. But then something changed in South Philly.

The Phils stole two games from the Mets to improve to 2-4, then grabbed another three wins in a four-game series with the San Diego Padres. Suddenly, things weren’t so bad. The offense was okay, pitching had been solid. Oh, and a guy named Vincent Velasquez was off to a flaming hot start.

Through three starts to start the season, the 23-year-old right-hander had only given up two runs and looked to be the hands-down Cy Young winner in the National League. While many doubted Velasquez’s ability to hold up, he’s been solid through the month of May. In four starts, he’s only given up eight runs and currently owns a 2.42 ERA with a dominant 10.99 K/9.

Things really began rolling for the Phillies on April 26, when they were scheduled to take on the Nationals in what should have been another series loss. Instead, the Phillies swept the Nats and limited them to only three runs in the series, including two shutouts. They followed up the sweep with another sweep of the Cleveland Indians, a team that’s remained competitive in the AL Central this season.

Nearly three weeks later, the Phillies have won their last four series and are in a tie for first place at 24-17. A place no one expected them to be at this point in the season.

Outside of Velasquez and Nola, the rest of the Phillies roster has been over performing. Nola looks to be a legitimate All-Star candidate alongside Velasquez, as he owns a 2.89 ERA with 9.85 K/9 and only 1.53 BB/9. With the ability to rack up strikeouts and limit walks without overpowering hitters, Nola isn’t showing any signs of slowing down soon.

After veteran Charlie Morton went down with a season-ending torn hamstring, things didn’t look good for the young Phillies rotation. But with Hellickson leading the youngsters, there’s been a surprising sense of stability. Hellickson has been typical Hellickson, with a 3.99 ERA, he hasn’t been spectacular, but should continue to eat up innings while limiting damage from opposing offenses.

The Phillies bullpen has been remarkably solid, too. Hector Noesi and Jeanmar Gomez are providing shutdown innings toward the end of games, while the long relievers are eating up innings.

At the back of the rotation, however, Jerad Eickhoff and Adam Morgan have had mixed results. Eickhoff is striking out batters at a decent rate and pitching a rather solid amount of innings, but Morgan is struggling. With a 6.41 ERA, Morgan’s numbers on the surface are rough – but a 4.08 FIP (fielding independent pitching) tells a different story. Morgan, the only lefty in the rotation, could improve as the season wears on, as most of his struggles can be simply attributed to bad luck.

That bad luck has extended to the offense, too. To put it simply, the Phillies offense has been as good as expected. The team’s pitching staff currently owns a 3.83 ERA, which is tied for 11th in the league with the St. Louis Cardinals (impressive company for a team expected to lose 100 games). The offense, on the other hand, is 29th in the league with only 132 runs scored.

Other than Herrera, who is slashing .333/.443/.458 with four homers, 25 runs scored and six stolen bases, there hasn’t been consistent production.

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Franco has seven home runs, but is only hitting .242 after hitting above .280 last season. However, his low batting average could be attributed to a .254 BABIP. In the rest of the infield, the theme of bad luck has persisted.

Howard is hitting under .200, despite hitting eight home runs; Cesar Hernandez has an OBP in the low .300s; Freddy Galvis is slashing .238/.265/.374 with a 20.5 strikeout rate; and Cameron Rupp can’t seem to get on base consistently.

The outfield hasn’t been much better, either. While Herrera is making his case for an All-Star appearance (and possibly an MVP award?), Bourjos is hitting below .200 with a .521 OPS. One positive has been the emergence of rookie outfielder Tyler Goeddel, who is hitting .262 and went 3-for-4 Wednesday with his first homer of the season.

If things don’t improve for the offense soon, the team will likely turn to prospects to take the place of the current crop of struggling starters.

J.P. Crawford is the top prospect in the organization and is viewed as the team’s franchise shortstop going forward, and could have an impact similar to Francisco Lindor last season. Crawford is slashing .262/.389/.369 with 11 RBI and four stolen bases this season, and represents a potentially potent bat capable of hitting atop the Phillies order.

In the outfield, Bourjos is clearly ill-suited to starting on a regular basis, so the team may turn to 22-year-old Nick Williams, who was acquired in the Cole Hamels trade with the Texas Rangers last season, to take the position.

While Williams doesn’t walk much and strikes out at a somewhat high rate, he’s hitting .274 this season with three homers and 18 RBI. He’s the kind of impact bat the Phillies need to drive in runs near the middle of the order.

And if Eickhoff or Morgan become problems at the back end of the rotation, Philadelphia can call upon either Jake Thompson or Mark Appel, the former Houston Astros number one draft pick.

In the coming weeks, the Phillies have a grueling schedule to endure. After what should be an easy series against the Atlanta Braves this weekend, Philadelphia will travel to Detroit to take on a surging Tigers squad, then will head to Chicago to take on the league best Cubs before returning home to take on the Nats.

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The Phillies could seemingly be under .500 in the next two weeks, but even so, they’ll have an extremely bright future to look forward to with Nola, Herrera and the abundance of prospects knocking at the door of the big league squad.