Arizona Diamondbacks: Is Zack Greinke Getting Comfortable?

Zack Greinke struggled in the early going with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but is now beginning to round into form. Is he finally getting comfortable in Arizona?

When the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke this offseason it shocked the baseball world. Most expected Greinke to either re-sign with the Dodgers or land in San Francisco. However, when Arizona stepped up and made a six-year $206.5 million dollar offer it was too much to pass up. It signaled that the Diamondbacks saw themselves as contenders sooner rather than later, and Greinke immediately became the ace at the top of their rotation.

It’s not difficult to understand why expectations were high for Greinke coming in to 2016. He was coming off of a season in which he went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA which was best in baseball. Over 222.2 innings he also led the majors in ERA+ (220) and WHIP (0.844). It might have been unreasonable to expect Grenike to repeat that performance, but there was no reason to think that he wouldn’t continue to be one of the best starters in the game.

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However, Greinke’s season got off to a surprisingly rough start against Colorado. In that game, Greinke gave up seven runs and nine hits through four innings of work. In all of 2015, Greinke’s worst starts were two outings in which he gave up five runs. Following that start against Colorado, he gave up four runs against the Cubs in six innings. Arizona’s optimism and expectations were so high for Grekine that these two starts had to be a shock. However, most still assumed Greinke would figure things out and begin to look more like the 2015 version of himself.

Through ten starts this season Greinke has a 4.59 ERA that is clearly inflated due to two outings in which he has given up seven runs this season. His 3.49 FIP suggests a pitcher who has been better than traditional metrics suggest, but that number would still be his highest total since 2012. In the midst of the “struggles” Greinke’s SO9 and BB9 rates have basically held steady. During his dominant 2015 he walked 1.6 per nine and struck out 8.1 per nine. So far this season those numbers have basically held steady at 1.8 BB9 and 8.1 SO9.

So what exactly has been the source of Greinke’s troubles this season? One of the clearest differences between 2015 and 2016 has been an almost .100 difference in Greinke’s BABIP allowed. In 2015 he ran a ridiculously low BABIP of .229. This was well out of step with his career average of .293. This season he’s allowing a .328 and BABIP, and while that number is still high for Greinke it’s closer to his career average.

The other big change in Greinke’s metrics has been the number of home runs he’s allowed. Last season he gave up 0.57 HR/9, which again was lower than his career average of 0.82. This season that number has jumped all the way to 1.11. One of the questions about Greinke’s move to Arizona was how he would handle a more hitter friendly ball park. By ESPN’s park factors Chase Field is currently the third most conducive environment for home runs in baseball. Greinke’s old stomping grounds, Dodger Stadium, checks in at number fourteen on that list. Again, that number is inflated by two games in which he gave up a combined five home runs (both starts were at home), but he has also given up at least one home run in each of his last three starts.

While there are obvious reasons for why he hasn’t had a repeat of 2015, are there indicators that Grekine is starting to sort things out? In his last two starts he’s gone at least seven innings, and in both games the Diamondbacks were able to get the win. In both outings he only gave up five hits which tied for his lowest hit totals of the season. His most recent start was clearly his best outing of the season in which he gave up five hits and one run in eight innings of work.

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No one should expect Zack Greinke to be able to repeat his 2015 performance. Few pitchers in baseball history have been able to put together a season like that. However, he’s clearly not as bad as his numbers suggest. This season is still a fairly small sample size for starting pitchers. Barring injury, Greinke should progressively look more and more like the ace the Diamondbacks paid for. It’s difficult to bet against a pitcher with a thirteen season track record like Greinke’s.

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