MLB: Ranking the top 10 SP duos in 2016
MLB is full of great starting pitchers, both young and old. Teams are always looking for dominant starters that they can pair at the top of the rotation. So when playoff time comes along, clubs have a much better chance of winning. But what teams have the top starting pitching combos in the league?
When looking around MLB, there are a lot of pitchers at the top of teams’ starting rotations that have a strong track record of success, but there are also top of the rotation pitchers that have broken out this season to give clubs a boost that they might not have otherwise thought they had.
Some of the predicted great pitching duos have performed up to or exceeding expectations, and some teams have found starting pitchers that have surprised the entire league with their production.
While some of these 1-2 starting combos may be elevated because of the strength of a single starting pitcher, most of these rotations have two equally dominant pitchers at the top of their rotation.
For clarification, these rankings are based on which teams have the best 1-2 starting pitching combos in the MLB right now. The rest of the club’s rotation is irrelevant for this list.
Next: Honorable Mention
TEX – Hamels/Darvish
Hamels 2016 stats: 57.1 IP, 5-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 62 K
Darvish 2016 stats: N/A (Injured)
Technically, the Rangers top of the rotation starting pitchers are not eligible for this list because Yu Darvish has been on the shelf for a little more than a season, however with the foreign-born ace returning soon, Texas is set to have one of the better starting pitching combos in MLB.
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Cole Hamels has put up his normal production for the most part this season, even though he has been a hit a little harder in recent outings. At 32-years-old, the veteran left-hander still possesses great stuff and is getting a lot of swings and misses this season, which is an encouraging sign for the him.
Hamels is letting more free passes than he has in past seasons which has certainly raised his FIP and WHIP in 2016. However, Hamels has still gotten the desired results and should continue being a reliable top of the rotation starter for the Rangers.
Getting Darvish back in the fold will give the club further dominance in their rotation. The 29-year-old is more of a power pitcher than Hamels and the argument could be made that he is actually the better of the two when fully healthy.
This is evident by his dominant seasons in 2013 and 2014, when he had ERA’s in the high 2.00’s to low 3.00’s and a K/9 rate above 10.0. If he can round into form quickly off his injury, Texas should have one of the more proven and dominant starting pitching combos in the major leagues.
Next: Number 10
10. PHI – Velasquez/Nola
Velasquez: 48.1 IP, 5-1, 2.42 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 59 K
Nola: 60 IP, 3-3, 2.85 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 64 K
Starting off the list is the youngest 1-2 combination of any team in the MLB. The Phillies were not expecting either of these young hurlers to experience this type of success this early on in their major league careers, but both righties have been excellent. Vincent Velasquez and Aaron Nola both have ERA’s under 3.00 and strikeout rates of over one putout every inning.
Velasquez is more of a hard thrower, while Nola uses his off speed pitches to get swings and misses. The former was Philadelphia’s 1st round pick (7th overall) in 2014 and the club traded for Velasquez when the team dealt Ken Giles to Houston. Both were highly ranked prospects coming through the minors and should continue to climb up this list as they make more starts.
Next: Number 9
9. STL – Garcia/Martinez
Garcia: 52.2 IP, 3-4, 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 51 K
Martinez: 48 IP, 4-4, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 35 K
Coming into this season, a top Cardinals pitching duo may seem incomplete without Adam Wainwright or the 24 year-old postseason stud Michael Wacha in it, but the best two pitchers on St. Louis right now are Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez.
Garcia has been a consistent force for the Cardinals’ rotation over the past couple of seasons. The lefty is coming off a very productive 2015 season and is looking to possibly improve this year as he has been more of a strikeout pitcher in the early goings.
Martinez had a breakout season last year, pitching to just above a 3.00 ERA while flashing stuff that indicated he had top of the rotation potential. His numbers haven’t been as good this year, but with the type of pitching arsenal he possesses, the 24 year-old should be able to continue as a productive force for St. Louis for years to come.
Next: Number 8
8. LAD – Kershaw/Maeda
Kershaw: 70 IP, 6-1, 1.67 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 80 K
Maeda: 52 IP, 3-3, 3.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 48 K
This may seem a little high on the list for a rotation that had two of the top starting pitchers in the MLB over the first month of the season.
Clayton Kershaw has been his typical self, dominating hitters with his mix of impressive stuff and ridiculous control. He is still probably the best pitcher in the major leagues.
Kenta Maeda started off the season hot, only allowing one run in his first four starts. But the Japanese-born righty has cooled off considerably in recent outings. He had not made it through the sixth inning in his last two starts and has given up four runs in those games as well. Hitters seem to have adjusted to the 28 year-old and Maeda will need to adjust if he hopes to continue to be the number two starter behind Kershaw for the rest of this year.
Meada’s pure stuff does not scream a top of the rotation starter and he’s going to have to prove that he belongs among the MLB’s best. Kershaw may carry the Los Angeles’ rotation, but this ranking is for who is the best 1-2 combo and Maeda’s recent struggles and lack of a track record keeps the game’s best pitcher out of the top five.
Next: Number 7
7. SEA – Hernandez/Walker
Hernandez: 57 IP, 4-3, 2.21 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 47 K
Walker: 42.2 IP, 2-3, 2.95 ERA, 1.13 ERA, 41 K
A classic case of old and new coming together to form one of the league’s best pitching duos, Felix Hernandez has been a staple of quality pitching in MLB since he made his major league debut in 2005.
Still just 30-years-old, King Felix continues to reign over major league baseball with his excellent location and ridiculous changeup. He hasn’t finished a season with an ERA above 3.50 since 2007 and has made six All-Star game appearances in the process.
Hernandez may not have the heater he once had in his prime, but he is changing the way that he pitches to keep hitters off balance and get the results he’s used to.
Taijuan Walker on the other hand is in the midst of a breakout year. Unlike Felix, the 23-year-old has a heater that he can throw in the mid to upper 90’s and should continue to refine is other pitches as he matures.
Next: Number 6
6. CLE – Kluber/Salazar
Kluber: 59.1 IP, 3-5, 4.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 58 K
Salazar: 54.1 IP, 4-3, 2.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 67 K
If not for Carlos Carrasco being on the disabled list for a chunk of this season, the Indians’ Opening Day starter could be off this list entirely.
For the past two seasons, Corey Kluber has not been able to have the top success he had during his Cy Young performance in 2014. He still has been a good starter since that time, he just hasn’t been as dominant as he was.
Danny Salazar has been the best starter in Cleveland this season, if not the best in the entire American League before a hiccup May 22 versus the Red Sox. Like most top of the rotation starting pitchers, Salazar rides his electric fastball when he is on the mound. His strikeout and ground ball numbers have been very impressive over his career and it seems that everything is coming together for the 26 year-old right hander.
If Carrasco comes back and performs like he has in recent seasons, there is no reason why Cleveland can’t have one of the best top 3 starting pitching combos in MLB.
Next: The Top 5
5. WAS – Scherzer/Strasburg
Scherzer: 66.1 IP, 5-3, 3.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 84 K
Strasburg: 61 IP, 7-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 75 K
While Stephen Strasburg as been the better of the two pitchers this season, Max Scherzer should still be regarded as the ace of the Nationals’ rotation because of the types of dominant performances he can turn in like his record tying 20 strikeout outing from a week ago against the Detroit Tigers.
Scherzer hasn’t gotten off to his best start because of the increased number of long balls he’s given up. However, taking a look at his other peripheral numbers, they don’t seem that much different from his impressive 2015 campaign.
Scherzer is letting up slightly over one more walk a game than he did last year, but he is also averaging one more strikeout per game. His fly ball and ground ball numbers are basically the same as last year as well. He also hasn’t seen a dip of velocity in his fastball, either. Scherzer has been a victim of some bad luck to start this year, and his numbers should return to form as we get further into the season.
But while Scherzer’s home run numbers have ticked up, Strasburg’s have been on the way down this season. Like Scherzer this year, Strasburg has recently been plagued by the home run ball, even when his peripheral stats look like he should be producing better results.
In 2016, Strasburg may be on his way to having a career year. He has given up less long balls and his other numbers have been consistent with years past as well. He still has a great fastball and one of the best curveballs in MLB, so it shouldn’t be a surprise of he is one of the better starting pitchers in the National League when all is said and done.
Next: Number 4
4. SFG – Bumgarner/Cueto
Bumgarner: 66.1 IP, 6-2, 2.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 77 K
Cueto: 66.2 IP, 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 61 K
The signing of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija has given a big boost to San Francisco’s pitching rotation. But, Cueto has been a slightly better pitcher than Samardzija this season, even though both have been very productive.
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Madison Bumgarner has established himself in the upper echelon of starting pitchers in the game, and the start of this season has not given any reason for him to be taken off of that mantle.
Bumgarner has been getting hitters out this season using the same combination of deceptiveness and control. His strikeout numbers have continued to be some of the best in MLB and he has one of the lower ERA’s in the National League as well. His increase in free passes is somewhat of a concern, but when you have a track record like Bumgarner has, the Giants shouldn’t worry about their ace regressing over the course of the this year.
It also seems like Cueto has gotten over his disappointing stint with Kansas City Royals. He is back to striking hitters out at a pretty high clip and is controlling his pitches better as you can see by his lower walk rate. Cueto’s wear on his arm and inconsistent delivery gave many people around baseball pause over the type of money the Giants gave him this offseason, yet he has still continued to be a top of the rotation arm.
Next: Number 3
3. CHC – Arrieta/Lester
Arrieta: 63 IP, 8-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.841 WHIP, 63 K
Lester: 55.1 IP, 4-3, 2.60 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 52 K
What Jake Arrieta has transformed into over the past three years is nothing less than incredible. He was no more than an under performing top prospect when he was with the Baltimore Orioles, but since being traded to the Cubs, Arrieta has turned into one of the most dominant pitchers in the game.
Most people thought that it was going to be difficult for the 30 year-old righty to improve over his career year last season, but he managed to do so by throwing his cutter at a 25 percent rate, according to FanGraphs, to get hitters to make weak contact.
Chicago probably planned on having Jon Lester be the ace of their staff when they signed the longtime Red Sox pitcher to a huge deal two offseasons ago. However, having him as a strong number two must still have the team in good spirits.
Lester had an ERA under 2.00 until a rough last outing when he let in five runs through just 2.2 IP. This raised his earned run average close to one full point. Lester’s 3.46 FIP also suggests that he may be getting a tad lucky with where batters are hitting the ball against him. But with his stuff not really declining and a strong strikeout rate, the southpaw should continue to be a nice complement to Jake Arrieta through the rest of 2016.
Next: Number 2
2. CWS – Quintana/Sale
Sale: 68.1 IP, 9-0, 1.58 ERA, 0.717 WHIP, 62 K
Quintana: 59 IP, 5-3, 1.98 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 52 K
With the continued success of Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta and the hype of the New York Mets’ rotation, it can be possible to overlook the tremendous success that Chris Sale and Jose Quintana have had in Chicago. Going into this season, most people expected Sale to continue being one of the best starters in MLB, but not many could predicted the rise of Quintana.
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Quintana has been a solid pitcher for the White Sox over the past four years, finishing every season from 2013-2015 with an ERA in the mid 3.00’s. These numbers show that the 27 year-old left-hander is a good starter, but not deserving of being part of a rankings as hefty as this. This rise up near the top of pitching combos in the majors has started this season with Quintana allowing less than two runs per start and being third in Fielding Independent Pitching in the entire major leagues. But how has Quintana improved so much in 2016?
His strikeout and walk rates are slightly improved, but not so much that it would signal this type of increased production. He has also not seen a tick in velocity, even though he is throwing his fastball at a much greater percentage according to FanGraphs. The main reason for this improvement is that he rarely gives up homers. He has always had low home run totals, but this season has been something else with him giving up around 0.2 long balls for every nine innings pitched.
Sale has been dominant once again this season, even with his strikeout rates and velocity on the decline. He has made history with his 9-0 start to 2016. Both southpaws have been some of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, which should excite many White Sox fans about their prospects for the rest of this season.
Next: Number 1
1. NYM – deGrom/Syndergaard
Syndergaard: 60.1 IP, 5-2, 1.94 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 76 K
deGrom: 41 IP, 3-1, 3.07 ERA, 1.244 ERA, 30 K
This Mets rotation was supposed to be one for the ages with how young their arms were going to be (outside of Bartolo Colon…obviously) and with the type of un-hittable stuff that their starters had up and down their staff.
While the Mets’ starters have been some of the best in baseball, they have not entirely lived up to lofty expectations. This is mostly due to the struggles of Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom not being the stopper he was expected to be.
At the start of 2016, no one really knew who the ace of their staff was going to be, however it seems clear now that Noah Syndergaard has taken that title fairly easily.
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Thor is starting to realize the immense potential he has because of his high 90’s fastball, which he can touch triple digits with and his ability to challenge batters in any count. It is quite amazing to see a pitcher that throws as hard as he does yet is capable of controlling his heater the way Syndergaard does. He is only averaging 1.5 walks per nine innings, while being fourth MLB-wide in K’s.
On the other end of the spectrum, deGrom has regressed this year. In 2015, the 27 year-old righty was New York’s ace in their run to the World Series. He averaged around 10 strikeouts per nine innings and had a walk rate of under 2.0. In 2016, both of these numbers have gone in the wrong direction with deGrom now only striking out 6.6 hitters per nine innings. His average fastball velocity dropped from 95.0 to around 92 so far in 2016 as well.
The positive news is that the right hander is still producing respectable numbers and most of these problems can probably be fixed by a slight change in mechanics and some mental gathering. Still, deGrom’s exemplary track record and lack of wear on his arm should give Mets fans hope that he will be able to regain his form soon.
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How would you rank the top pitching duos in the majors? Let us know in the comments below.