The Milwaukee Brewers may have the worst starting staff in baseball, but Jimmy Nelson has been quietly putting together a strong season.
You could point to a variety of reasons as to why the Milwaukee Brewers are currently one of the worst teams in baseball, but the starting rotation is a pretty good place to start. The 5.45 ERA owned by Brewers starters as a unit is the worst mark of its kind among all MLB clubs.
For comparison’s sake, last year’s Milwaukee rotation finished the year ranked 28th with a 4.79 ERA. So while starting pitching hasn’t been a strength for the Brew Crew in a while, this year’s group is moving in the wrong direction thus far.
The numbers would be even worse were it not for the right-hander unexpectedly leading the staff during the first two months of the campaign: 26-year-old Jimmy Nelson.
Nelson paces the Brewers rotation with a 3.07 ERA in nine starts. Over 58.2 innings of work, he sports a 1.18 WHIP and 2.00 K/BB ratio. In all but two of his outings (4/20 vs. Twins, 5/7 vs. Reds) he has surrendered only two earned runs or fewer.
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Listed at 6’6″ tall and 250 pounds, Nelson cuts a daunting figure on the mound. A second round pick by Milwaukee in the 2010 draft, he was a moderately praised prospect as he worked his way through the minor league system. Prior to the 2014 season, he was ranked the #83 prospect in the league by MLB.com and #96 by Baseball America.
Though this marks his fourth season in the big leagues, last year was his first full year as a member of the Brewers rotation. He took the hill 30 times, posting a 4.11 ERA in 177.1 frames. All things considered, it was a solid first taste of extended major league action, although he received a late-season scare in September after being hit in the head by a line drive.
Nelson entered the current campaign aiming to build on last year’s performance as part of a rebuilding franchise. The Brewers probably didn’t have any delusions about competing this year, but the starting pitching to this point has been a palpable disappointment. Chase Anderson (5.33 ERA), Wily Peralta (6.99) and Zach Davies (5.75) all carry ERAs over 5.00. Taylor Jungmann sported an ugly 9.15 mark through five outings before being demoted to Triple-A.
Matt Garza, who Milwaukee hoped would rebound after a lackluster 2015, has been sidelined with a strained lat, and there’s no telling how he will fare when he returns.
If there has been another early success story on the Brewers rotation besides Nelson, it’s likely been Junior Guerra. The 31-year-old rookie has held his own in winning three of four starts to the tune of a 3.96 ERA. Last night may have been his most impressive turn yet, as he fanned 11 Cubs over the course of seven innings.
For a team in the Brewers’ position, any kind of positive development is welcome. While Guerra might be more of a wild card moving forward, can Milwaukee depend on more steadying performances from Nelson?
His 4.59 FIP, a full run and a half higher than his ERA, is not exactly encouraging. A .239 BABIP and 79 percent strand rate have also been friendly. There are some potential home run concerns as well. Nelson’s fly ball rate has climbed from 29.4 percent to 32.7 percent since last year, while his HR/FB ratio has also inflated from 11.8 percent to 15.1 percent.
It’s a fair bet that more challenging days are ahead for Nelson and that he won’t be able to maintain his present ERA throughout the entire season. However, the Brewers will take heart in how he has stood up to some formidable competition (1 ER in 12 IP vs. Cubs) and hope that he can continue defying expectations.
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Nelson will try to keep it rolling tonight against the Atlanta Braves and another hurler who is enjoying a very successful start to the season, Julio Teheran (2.73 ERA).