MLB: Will We Ever See Another Pitcher Reach 300 Wins?
In baseball lore, pitchers with 300 career wins are the rarest of the rare. Are there any current MLB hurlers who could make a run to join the list?
When Randy Johnson won his 300th game on June 4, 2009, he became just the 24th pitcher in big league history to do so. The 300 win club is more exclusive than its 500 home run and 3,000 hit counterparts. In a time with rampant arm injuries claiming victims by the dozens, 300 wins may be the most difficult achievement in the game.
Among the 24 members of the club, just over half played the game in the live ball era, and a mere four began their careers after 1967. The sort of career longevity reaching 300 wins requires is going extinct in a Major League Baseball that preaches maximum effort on every pitch, often to the detriment of pitchers’ arms.
There is currently not a single active pitcher among the top 74 winningest all-time. Bartolo Colon, who turns 43 on Tuesday, is the current leader with 221 and comes in tied for 75th on the all-time list with Joe Niekro. C.C. Sabathia, himself 35 years old, is the only other active pitcher who tops 200. Neither are going to reach the vaunted 300 mark.
While the odds of joining the 300 win club are stacked against every man who takes the mound, there does seem to be a recipe for getting there: start young, play for a contender, and stay relatively injury-free. There are those rare players who have been able to combine the luck of playing for winning clubs, the physical makeup to stay healthy, and the stuff necessary to rack up notches in the win column at an elite rate.
Using the Bill James Favorite Toy formula, there are a few pitchers in the big leagues right now who at the very least stand a shot at reaching the milestone. Let’s take a look at who they are.
Next: First up: The eye test lies
The zero percent club
There are a number of pitchers who, based on just the eye test, one would assume have at least an outside chance of reaching 300 wins before they hang up their spikes. According to the Favorite Toy calculation, though, the following three have no shot at all: Justin Verlander, David Price, and Rick Porcello.
Verlander leads this group with 160 career wins, and he’s only 33 years old, but he’s now five years removed from his MVP/Cy Young season in 2011, and his numbers have slipped. The righty dealt with arm problems in 2015, and though he has experienced a resurgence of sorts in 2016, he does not have the dominant ball club behind him that he once had.
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Price is in his ninth big league season at the age of 30 and has 110 wins. Playing for a few middling Tampa Bay Rays teams prevented that number from being higher, but last season he won 18 and has six through his first nine starts in 2016. Pitching for a Red Sox club loaded with young talent that looks as though it could be a perennial contender could improve his outlook.
Porcello may seem like an odd name to have in the mix, but prior to a disastrous 2015 that saw him go 9-15 in Boston, he was among those pitchers that Favorite Toy gave a chance to reach 300 wins. Only 27 years old, with seven wins in his first nine starts this season, and having the same team behind him that Price does, Porcello could put his name back into contention by year’s end.
Next: So you're saying there's a chance?
Zack Greinke – ARI – 4 percent
According to the calculation, Zack Greinke has a 4 percent chance of reaching 300 wins. Already with 147 at age 32, the 2009 Cy Young Award winner has averaged 17 wins over the past three seasons.
That number may be deceiving, though, as he did so playing for a Los Angeles Dodgers club that is stronger annually than his current Arizona team. But Greinke is 5-3 through his first 10 starts of 2016 and the Diamondbacks are the third-highest scoring team in the National League, so hitting that average is certainly not out of the question.
To Greinke’s detriment, he started his career on some pretty terrible teams with the Kansas City Royals, going 60-67 in his seven seasons with them. Since being traded to Milwaukee after the 2010 season and stints with the Angels and Dodgers, Greinke has a .750 winning percentage. If he continues at such a pace, there’s a sliver of hope he can make it to the promised land.
Next: The King of wins?
Felix Hernandez – SEA – 11 percent
Felix Hernandez has the exact same number of wins as Greinke, but he’s two years younger. At just 30, the calculation gives King Felix an 11 percent chance of making it to 300.
Much like Greinke, playing for some non-contending teams seems to have hurt Hernandez’s chances, and there is a question of whether his durability is actually a hindrance. Since his first full season in the big leagues at age 20, he has never made fewer than 30 starts or thrown less than 190 innings. That’s a lot of mileage on an arm that would need to perform for several more seasons at its current level.
With the Mariners presently second in the American League in runs scored and first in run differential, Hernandez has a chance of equaling the 18 wins he registered in 2015. But at just 4-3 through his first nine starts this season, and seeing the worst strikeouts and walks per nine innings numbers of his career, there is a big question mark looming over whether the King is beginning to decline.
Next: Still only a kid
Madison Bumgarner – SFG – 17 percent
Madison Bumgarner has two things working for him that put his odds of reaching 300 wins so high: he’s only 26 and he plays for the Giants. Already with 91 career wins in this his seventh full season in the big leagues, the left-hander has been a model of consistency.
In his previous six full seasons, Bumgarner has averaged just over 14 wins, and that number climbs to over 16 in the past three years. Since 2011, he’s never started fewer than 31 games, thrown less than 201 innings, or had an earned run average over 3.37. Couple that with his mates in the Bay Area consistently being one of the best teams in all of baseball, and Bumgarner is well equipped for making an honest run at the 300 win club.
If MadBum can stay healthy, he and the Giants are poised to remain at or near the top of the senior circuit for years to come. That should bring with it a whole lot of W’s.
Next: The favorite to reach 300?
Clayton Kershaw – LAD – 18 percent
Is it any surprise that Clayton Kershaw would be atop this list? The most dominant pitcher in a generation already has 120 wins and he just turned 28 during spring training, making him the odds-on favorite among today’s MLB hurlers to join the 300 win club.
Beginning in his third full season in 2011 when he won the first of his three Cy Young Awards to date, Kershaw has averaged nearly 18 wins a year, and his start to 2016 actually suggests he’s just now hitting his prime. Through nine starts, the lefty is 7-1 and putting up historic numbers in WHIP, walks per nine innings, and strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Kershaw is undoubtedly the best pitcher in the game (apologies to Jake Arrieta), and though the Dodgers have had their struggles early in 2016, they still own the best run differential in the NL West.
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With a schedule packed full of divisional games throughout the summer, Kershaw has the the offensive backing to complement his out-of-this-world stuff and put together another 20-win season on his march towards 300.