San Diego Padres witnessing big jump from Hunter Renfroe
A San Diego Padres prospect living up to his draft pick and bright spots in weak farm systems are highlighted in the week’s minor league rundown.
Hunter Renfroe didn’t deserve to play in the Texas League All Star Game last season. After a 0-for-4 day with two strikeouts on June 26, 2015, the San Diego Padres outfield prospect was hitting .236 with a .300 on-base percentage and was slugging a measly .370 with two days until the All Star break.
The next day, Renfroe hit a home run and had 10 hits over the next five games. He hit 17 home runs the rest of the season, including three in the Pacific Coast League playoffs after a promotion to Triple-A, and had a .392 weighted on-base average. It’s as if a light bulb came on inside him.
Since that home run last June 26, Renfroe has been the hitter the Padres expected him to be when they drafted him 13th overall in the 2013 draft. Over that span, he’s hit .310/.340/.571 with 26 home runs and a .396 wOBA (through play Tuesday).
Most pundits expected the Padres to struggle this season, and their starting outfield was a big reason why. Aside from subpar defense, the Padres outfield of Matt Kemp, Jon Jay and Melvin Upton was ranked 27th in OBP, 22nd in slugging and 26th in wOBA entering play Wednesday despite an uprising from Upton.
Renfroe won’t be much of a salve this season, but he certainly provides hope for the Padres’ future. If he continues to show the improvements he’s made are legitimate, he could take over in right field next season. Unfortunately, Kemp and his titanic contract will be lodged there until the end of time unless General Manager A.J. Preller conjures up another creative trade.
Renfroe has the lowest strikeout rate (18.9%) of his career, and even though he has a low walk rate (3.9%) to go with it, his future is promising. Place him alongside new Padres prospect Manuel Margot, whom the Padres received from the Boston Red Sox in November’s trade of Craig Kimbrel, and the Padres could have a really good outfield in the near future.
That gets another minor league notes column off and running. This week, rather than focusing on different levels of the minors, the focus will be on teams that haven’t been discussed in previous posts. The reason they’ve been overlooked: the farm systems are terrible.
Next: Trouble in Florida
Baseball Prospectus sums up the Miami Marlins’ farm system thusly: “There are good systems, there are poor systems, then there’s 50 pounds of effluence, and then there’s the Marlins.”
That’s a scathing review, but it’s true. The Marlins don’t have a single player ranked in either BP’s top 101 prospects or MLB.com’s top 100 prospects. But while the system as a whole is an eyesore, there have been some bright spots.
Outfielder Austin Dean isn’t going to compete for a batting title in the Southern League, but he’s posted a respectable .282/.363/.442 line entering Thursday. He also has his highest walk rate (11.0%) and his second highest slugging and on-base percentages. He is having a bounce-back season after a down 2015 that saw him hit .268/.318/.366.
Pitcher Austin Brice has a 1.99 earned run average and opponents are hitting just .205 against him. That ERA is good for sixth in the SL and his 2.60 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the highest of his career. His fielding independent pitching of 3.57 suggests rough days are ahead, but he’s riding high now.
Coming into Thursday’s game, second baseman Brian Anderson was hitting just .212 over his last 10 games. Despite the rough stretch, he was still hitting .304/.376/.446 this season. This is his second stint in the Florida State League, and he’s doing much better this time around after slashing .235/.304/.340 in 2015.
Pitcher Cody Poteet, a fourth round pick in last season’s draft, pitched six scoreless innings Monday and allowed just three hits and three walks. The outing pushed his ERA to 2.95 in the South Atlantic League and was his second scoreless start in a row.
Next: A slow rebuild in the minors
To be fair to the Detroit Tigers, their farm system is getting better. Trading David Price netted them three left-handed pitchers in Matt Boyd, Daniel Norris and Jairo Labourt. More importantly, the 2015 draft class is putting up some impressive numbers.
The Tigers’ first pick of the draft was pitcher Beau Burrows. Burrows threw 28 professional innings last season and struck out 33 batters and surrendered only five earned runs. He hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but he still boasts a 4.33 K/BB and 2.70 ERA. Since he is just 19 years old, the Tigers are handling him with kid gloves, as all of his outings have come with at least five days of rest and he has gone more than five innings once.
The Tigers’ second pick in the 2015 draft was outfielder Christin Stewart. Stewart has raked since becoming a professional, blasting 10 home runs in 2015. He currently leads the Florida State League in slugging (.549 entering Thursday), OPS (.912) and wOBA (.419) and is fourth in walk rate (14.6%). Oh, and he also leads the league with 14 home runs, twice as many as second place.
The Tigers might have gone 3-for-3 on their first three draft picks. Pitcher Tyler Alexander hasn’t allowed an earned run since April 23, a span of five starts and 35 innings. His 1.68 ERA is third in the FSL and his K/BB (4.56) is eighth.
Next: A promising future in AA
Call it a coincidence, but the best performances in the Seattle Mariners’ farm system seem to be happening in Double-A for the Jackson Generals.
The Mariners are grooming Edwin Diaz to be a dominant relief pitcher… probably. His first six appearances of the season came as a starter and he posted a 3.10 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 29 innings, which by no means are sneeze-worth numbers. Still, the Mariners switched him to a relief role and he hasn’t allowed an earned run since the move.
Tyler O’Neill homered for the ninth time Wednesday to bring his season’s slash line to .311/.373/.557. For a franchise that has missed on drafting power prospects in the recent past, O’Neill’s production is an encouraging sign. He hit 32 home runs last season in the California League but struck out 137 times, but he’s made an improvement early this season, cutting his strikeout rate by almost five percentage points.
Pitcher Andrew Moore made his first start in Double-A Wednesday, giving up three runs in three innings. It may not have been the best debut, but considering he was leading the Class-A Advanced California League with a 1.65 ERA and .188 opponent’s average, he deserved the promotion. Since becoming a professional as a Competitive Balance Round B pick last season, Moore has a 5.00 K/BB and 1.99 ERA.
Ryan Yarbrough, another pitcher, has a 2.49 ERA over nine starts. The Force was with Yarbrough when he tossed his first career shutout and he’s allowed just one earned run over his last three starts.
Next: Worst system in the minors
If the Los Angeles Angels’ woes don’t make you feel sorry for Mike Trout, then the farm system will probably do the trick. Remember what BP said about the Marlins’ minor league system? Well, add an additional 50 feet of effluence, and there are the Angels.
Like the Marlins, the Angels don’t have a player ranked in either BP’s or MLB.com’s top prospect list. Most of the highly-ranked ones the Angels did have got traded to the Atlanta Braves in return for Andrelton Simmons. But still, like the other weak farms already mentioned, there have been bright spots, including a pitcher earning a weekly MiLB award.
The Angels’ best minor league performance is coming from their 2015 third round selection. Grayson Long has pitched exactly five innings in each of his starts and has yet to allow more than two earned runs in a single outing. He has a 1.58 ERA—good for seventh in the Midwest League—and opponents are hitting just .190 against him, fifth lowest in the league. Long also has the fifth highest strikeout rate in the league with 10.13 punch outs per nine innings.
Next: derek Jeter wants his own team
The Angels recalled Kaleb Cowart Wednesday to provide infield depth. The third baseman was slashing .303/.352/.454 and had struck out in 21.6 percent of his plate appearances, a modest drop off from last season.