Baltimore Orioles star Manny Machado is affordable now, but that will change come 2018 free agency. Can Machado command $400 million?
Baltimore Orioles’ star infielder Manny Machado is making $5 million this season, in his fourth full year in the Major Leagues. While $5 million is undeniably a large sum of money, though, it pales in comparison to what Machado could eventually receive on the open free agent market, in 2018.
It’s been widely discussed and speculated that Washington Nationals star outfielder Bryce Harper could net $400 million, or even $500 million when he reaches free agency, which he is scheduled to do in the same year as Machado, 2018. It remains to be seen just how much Harper gets, but it seems Machado’s dollar amount may be close.
As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports discusses in his “Full Count” video, Machado is arguably every bit as valuable as Harper. Machado’s defensive ability, his tendency be at, or near the top of the league in Wins Above Replacement, and his age all benefit Machado as it pertains to his future free agency.
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Currently, the biggest contract in Major League baseball belongs to Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton inked a whopping 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins in 2014. Considering that Machado will be a free agent four years after Stanton inked that deal, it’s absolutely feasible that he could fetch more, as the sticker shock will have worn off by then.
What will benefit Machado, Harper, and others for that matter, is the structure of the contract. With the trend of how contracts are being structured in recent years, it seems teams are less afraid of dishing out jaw-dropping amounts of money. Here’s why: Let’s say, hypothetically, that Machado — who will be 26 as a free agent — nets a staggering deal. Something in the neighborhood of a 13-year deal for $400 million. On the surface, that has an average annual value of just under $31 million per season. But in reality, the deal would likely be very different than the initial figures suggest. This is due to two things, opt-out clauses, and deferred money.
Using this same example, Machado will be 26 as a free agent. Perhaps he will want the chance to test the market again at age 29 or 30. If that were the case, the 13-year deal would have opt-outs after the third and/or fourth years. Opt-outs are extremely common. The aforementioned Stanton has one after six years. Jason Heyward has them in the 8-year deal he signed with the Chicago Cubs, and Yoenis Cespedes can opt-out of his New York Mets deal after this season, just to name a few.
The other factor is deferred money. This has been increasingly discussed over the past few years. Max Scherzer has deferred money with the Washington Nationals, as does Zack Greinke with the Arizona Diamondbacks, as well as others. The deferred money would give the team signing Machado some financial relief in the immediacy of completing the deal, but if Machado were to never opt-out, he’d be owed money long after the playing portion of the contract ends.
Free agent contracts seemingly get bigger every year. Seeing as there are more than two full years until Machado reaches free agency, he should be in line for a substantial amount of money, likely keeping pace with Harper.
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Machado, 23, is slashing .323/.397/.634 this season, and has a BABIP of .345. According to Fangraphs, Machado leads the league in WAR. He is unquestionably a superstar, and when he eventually hits free agency, Manny Machado will cash in.