MLB Awards Watch: Top 5 NL MVP candidates thru May
Through the first two months of the season, MLB awards watch time is beginning to pick up some steam. With 2/3 of the season to go, here are your top contenders in the running right now for the National League’s Most Valuable Player.
In May’s instalment tracking the NL MVP race, there are some different faces to consider, compared to where things sat at the end of April. For example, Bryce Harper scorched opposing pitching in April, but at the moment, the Nationals are winning more games right now on the strength of guys like Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer. Harper has been mired in a 16-for-80 slump in May, hitting only .200 with four HRs and 10 RBI.
There have been a lot of Cubs players continuing to elevate their play, as well. The lineup is stacked and probably has better performing candidates than Anthony Rizzo to look at right now.
It’s not too soon to write-off a pitcher being thrown into the mix, either. While the BBWAA usually shows bias in favor of hitters who play every day when it comes to MVP awards, there’s certainly some credence behind voting for at least one arm.
Next: Honorable Mentions
Honorable Mentions
Daniel Murphy – WAS – .397/.428/.634, 29 R, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, wRC+ 179, 2.0 WAR
The last second baseman to win any kind of MVP award in baseball was Boston’s Dustin Pedroia back in 2008. Right now, Murphy isn’t just the Nationals’ best hitter, he’s the best at his position in the league. Into June, he’s the only player right now seriously flirting with hitting .400 and his wRC+ of 179 ranks second in MLB. A career .294 hitter who has never went deep more than 14 times in a year, Murphy’s Law would suggest his numbers are going to deteriorate at some point.
Kris Bryant – CHC – .281/.368/.500-37-11-37-1, wRC+ 138, 1.9 WAR
2015’s NL ROY hasn’t skipped a beat transitioning from the offseason into 2016. Bryant has a well-to-do batting average when it comes to hitting for contact and the power is there too. He’s one of many Cubs lighting up box scores at the moment.
Dexter Fowler – CHC – .317/.434/.533-34-6-24-6, wRC+ 163, 2.5 WAR
Another Cub who is clearly the beneficiary of being surrounded by such incredible talent and coaching. Fowler has never made an All-Star Game or an appearance on an MVP ballot. He’s having a career year and if things persist, you can bet Chicago will want to pick up the $9MM mutual option on him for 2017 and consider it a bargain. But will Fowler choose to do the same?
Gregory Polanco – PIT – .310/.386/.556-38-8-36-7, wRC+ 156, 2.1 WAR
It’s not Andrew McCutchen buoying the Bucs right now, but Polanco who leads his team in a number of offensive statistical categories. Teammate Starling Marte is playing very well also and Pittsburgh is sitting pretty at 29-22, 6.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central and holding down the second Wild Card seed for the time being.
Marcell Ozuna – MIA – .333/.384/.579-34-10-27-0, wRC+ 160, 2.1 WAR
Ozuna is quietly having one of the greater bounce back seasons of the 21st century after a 2015 demotion to Triple-A. With Giancarlo Stanton not hitting for average and Christian Yelich missing multiple games due to back spasms, Ozuna has kept the Marlins afloat with his spectacular play.
Next: Number 5
5. Bryce Harper – WAS
.242/.415/.535-32-13-34-7, wRC+ 141, 1.8 WAR
A slow May does not an MVP make. There’s little reason to discount Harper in the race. Only 30 days ago, he was the clear favorite to take home the hardware and be the first repeat winner in the NL since Albert Pujols in 2008 and 2009.
A productive June should give weight to Harper staking claim to a second MVP award and historically, June has been a very strong month for him. In terms of career splits, his .316 BA ranks as the highest of such for the month of June. His biggest issue in the past has been staying healthy during the current month.
Harper still ranks top five in the NL in home runs and RBI and his OPS ranks sixth.
Next: Number 4
4. Nolan Arenado – COL
.287/.358/.590-37-16-43-0, wRC+ 125, 2.2 WAR
Surprise surprise — it’s June and the Colorado Rockies are hovering around .500. Most of that is thanks in large part to their offense and leading the way is their NL ROY candidate at shortstop Trevor Story, as well as third baseman Nolan Arenado.
Ranking in the top three of a number of prominent statistical categories in the National League, the 25-year-old Arenado has mutated from a promising rookie who plays great defense at the hot corner to a true franchise player to build a team around.
2016 is the first time in his career Arenado saw his salary jump to seven figures. He’s arbitration eligible in 2017, but you can bet the Rockies’ front office will want to see Arenado and Story manning the left side of their infield for years to come. Expect discussions between his agent and the club toward a long-term deal to be ongoing this offseason.
Next: Number 3
3. Yoenis Cespedes – NYM
.275/.349/.596-31-15-37-1, wRC+ 161, 1.8 WAR
A physical specimen with an outfield arm few players will attempt to run on, Yoenis Cespedes is now starting to make a real impact on a macro level with his bat as well.
During his first four seasons in MLB from 2012-15 with the A’s, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets, Cespedes averaged 144 games played per season to go with 26 home runs, 92 RBI and a .271 BA over the that span. He appeared on an MVP ballot last season for the first time after being an All-Star in 2014.
Now, the Cuban defector is onto his second big league contract and in its first season, he’s wasting no time earning his keep with a base salary of $27.5 MM in 2016.
Next: Number 2
2. Ben Zobrist – CHC
.345/.445/.529-37-7-35-2, wRC+ 168, 2.4 WAR
Long a productive and versatile baseball player, Ben Zobrist has to be one of the biggest surprises from the 2016 season right now. His days with Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay earned him two All-Star Game nods. Now it appears reuniting with Maddon on Chicago’s North Side has been a wise career move for the 35-year-old moving forward.
Zobrist leads an explosive Cubs lineup in a number of categories like OPS, AVG and hits and ranks inside the top five in the NL in RBI and AVG.
With the Cubbies being an odds on favorite to win not only the NL Central right now, but also the World Series, you have to believe the BBWAA will take a good look at their roster of players when it comes time to vote. Not only at their hitters, but pitchers as well. The last time a team swept the MVP/Cy Young awards with two different players was as recent as 2013 with Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer, respectively.
Given the number of strong candidates who swing a bat on the Cubs and ace-like potential from pitchers Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, Chicago is sitting real pretty headed into June.
Next: Number 1
1. Clayton Kershaw – LAD
86.2 IP, 7-1, 1.56 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, 1.49 FIP, 105 SO, 5 BB, 3.7 WAR
The Claw is mowing down the competition. Few Dodgers fans would’ve thought during the 1960’s that their franchise would see a more dominant southpaw than Sandy Koufax playing baseball for them. Clayton Kershaw might just be that southpaw.
And forget southpaw. That’s too narrow a classification. Pitcher is a broader term and Kershaw is the best of his generation, possibly ever. Two years ago in 2014 he swept the awards podium with his third Cy and first ever MVP.
His 2016 campaign is shaping up to be his finest yet. So fine, there might not be a word with enough potency to describe what Kershaw is doing right now. In May, he dropped his ERA almost one full point and it now sits tied for first with Arrieta’s in NL rankings. With seven wins and over 100 strikeouts already, he’s a viable candidate to win his second Triple Crown in pitching, last accomplished in 2011 by Kershaw and Verlander.
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His most staggering stat from 2016 is his current K:BB ratio. The best marks all-time by a starting pitcher since 1920 was Phil Hughes‘ 2014 season (11.63) and Bret Saberhagen‘s 1994 season (11.00). Hughes struck out 186 and walked 16 in his historic campaign, while Saberhagen K’d 143 and gave up 13 free passes in his.
Kid K is the only pitcher in MLB with over 100 punch outs this season. He has walked only FIVE batters all season. His current K:BB mark of 21.00 is unfathomable. If or when the Dodgers’ bats decide to wake up, it won’t matter. There won’t be a better NL MVP candidate on the club than Kershaw. Should Los Angeles qualify for postseason action, this ace of all aces will be the primary reason.
Next: Dustin Ackley to have season ending surgery
Clayton Kershaw presently leads all MLBers — pitchers and position players — with a WAR of 3.7. Multiply that number by three for his pace and it would equal 11.1 for the regular season, besting his previous personal best of 7.8 by over three full points. Virtually the only thing missing on the 28-year-old’s resume would be a World Series ring.