Houston Astros Trade Deadline Overview
After taking the baseball world by storm in 2015, the 2016 version of the Houston Astros had been struggling to string wins together until recently. At 25-29, and riding a five-game win streak, the Astros look to have turned a corner, but will their early deficit prove to be too much?
Injuries and a lack of production hurt the Astros over the first month of the season, with Lance McCullers, Evan Gattis and backup catcher Max Stassi all missing significant time in April. Stassi has since be sent down to Triple-A Fresno with Gattis assuming the backup catching duties, with McCullers racking up the strikeouts with 28 punch-outs in 20.2 innings.
The big move for the team was flip-flopping Jose Altuve and George Springer in the lineup with Springer acting as the leadoff hitter. In 35 at-bats from that spot heading into Wednesday’s game, the 26-year-old outfielder is batting .371 with an on-base percentage (OBP) of .436, up from his .260 and .354 from the two-hole. Altuve has seen his average slip slightly from .330 to .310, but his OBP has taken the bigger hit falling from .415 to .344. More importantly, the Astros are 8-1 since the switch against the Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Arizona Diamondbacks.[
We could have figured that a surge would be coming from Houston at some point this season, and their timing couldn’t have been better. With a late-May push towards .500, GM Jeff Luhnow should have plenty of time to properly assess his team’s chances this season before any hastily-made trades are put in play. In those nine games they have outscored their opponents 46-34 and have scored eight runs in each of their last three games.
While the team has been winning, they have still allowed 3.78 runs per game over that stretch, which is an improvement, but likely not enough of one to get it done should the Astros reach October for the second straight year.
Dallas Keuchel hasn’t been himself this season, holding a 3-6 record with a 5.58 ERA. The leader of the rotation thus far? Doug Fister. He’s 4-3 with a 3.86 ERA, which is nearly a run lower than the second-lowest starter’s ERA which just so happens to be McCullers at 4.79 in four starts.
Next: Get Your Aging Veterans Here
The Astros Have Some Contracts They Could Unload
The likelihood of some of the players set to hit free agency this winter being involved in a trade that is a straight-up deal are relatively slim, meaning that the Astros would have to include some minor league talent or take on some salary to make a trade happen.
With that said, third baseman Luis Valbuena, outfielders Carlos Gomez and Colby Rasmus, catcher Jason Castro and starters Scott Feldman and Doug Fister will all test free agency after the World Series. At most, two of those players–Rasmus and Castro–have a legitimate shot at signing on with the club for 2017. That could make the rest of the players mentioned expendable. Both Feldman and Fister have had their moments and if a contending team faces a significant injury or wants to add some depth, they represent more affordable options.
Gomez is the one player that could potentially bring back a haul, but if he was going to do that he would need to get hot, like now. If Gomez were hot, he’s also the sort of player that could help the Astros with their own playoff aspirations, so unless he is a real virus in the clubhouse he will likely stick around through the end of the season and net the Astros a draft pick.
If you’re a contending team and you’re looking to add Valbuena as your starting third baseman down the stretch, then your playoff chances are likely pretty slim. As a bench option he could have some value, however, especially to an American League team with fewer arms needed in the bullpen which clears up an extra roster spot.
Next: Buyers or Sellers?
Buyers or Sellers?
It all depends on how things shake out over the next two months. The Astros currently hold a 6-13 record against their own division which includes an 0-6 record against their in-state rival Texas Rangers. First things first, that record has to improve if the front office is going to expend more prospects to help the team compete this year.
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Recent trades for veterans have not worked out in Houston’s favor of late, and have depleted what was once an even deeper farm system. With the troubles that the rotation has had this year, they would likely love to have Vincent Velasquez back at the big league level. Ken Giles will most likely prove to be a worthy add in the long run, but regardless of how great his performance is, the Astros gave up a lot to get him.
The next couple of months will consist of keeping an eye on the Astros wins and losses as well as those with some pieces that could become available at the trade deadline, which we go over on the next slide.
Next: What Could Happen in the Coming Weeks
What the Astros Could Do in the Coming Weeks
They trade Doug Fister. This sounds crazy since he leads the rotation in ERA, but a team with a worse-off farm system may want to take a flier on him for their own postseason run. Houston shouldn’t give him away by any means, but getting a prospect that could use a change of scenery, someone like Jon Singleton but on another team.
The second part of this equation is the more important one. Fister’s absence in the rotation will clear up a spot for one of a couple of players. Michael Feliz has been dominant of late in the bullpen as August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs pointed out just a couple of days ago, and could be considered an option for the rotation if he adds consistency with a third pitch.
The other option is Joe Musgrove who is the highest upside pitcher that is within shouting distance of the big leagues. After dominating (which is an understatement) the Texas League to begin the season with a 0.34 ERA over 26.1 innings, Musgrove got the call to Triple-A in May. Through four starts in Fresno, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA, but his calling card control is still in full effect. He has walked three batters at each level, combining for six walks over 49.1 innings pitched this season. Last year he walked eight in 100.2 innings.
Giving either of these two a shot in the rotation wouldn’t be throwing in the towel on the season by any means, as they offer more upside than Fister, and would also set the team up in future seasons with some experience starting games at the Major League level under their belts.
Add in that top prospect A.J. Reed could join the team in the coming weeks and potentially solve the team’s first base woes, and riding the young guns to the playoffs seems like the team’s best bet.
Teams to keep an eye on in the coming weeks: The Oakland Atheltics (SP, 3B, RP), New York Yankees (RP) and the fire sales from the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves. The starting pitcher market currently consists of Rich Hill and then the rest of them. Hill is the kind of pitcher that could really improve the Astros rotation, and wouldn’t cost any top prospects, but after acquiring Scott Kazmir from Oakland last year adding another lefty from the A’s this season just doesn’t feel right.
If Houston decides to add some players, Danny Valencia could be an option at third base if they decide to keep Alex Bregman down in the minors or Colin Moran/Matt Duffy don’t pick it up. Oakland could also offer up Marc Rzepczynski or even Josh Reddick if he proves that his wrist is healthy when he returns from the disabled list. Rzepczynski is a situational lefty that would complement Tony Sipp well. Valencia is the kind of streaky hitter that can carry a team for long periods of time, while acquiring Reddick could help lure him to Houston in the offseason.
Next: Angels Trade Deadline Overview
The Yankees have a couple of bullpen options to offer up if they fall out of the race in Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller, either of which would be a welcome addition to Houston’s bullpen. If the Braves were to make Ender Inciarte available, he would be an interesting option to consider to fill the gap that will be left by Gomez and potentially Rasmus in the offseason. The Twins have reliever Glen Perkins who has served as Minnesota’s closer in recent years. He’s another lefty that would be nice to have, but is currently on the disabled list and has been since early April, and is someone that other teams would likely be willing to outbid Houston to add.
The Astros have depth in the farm system to acquire any player they please, really, but with the trades that they have made in the past year they have to be sure to make the right moves this time around instead of adding the biggest name left on the market. But first things first, they have to stay in the race long enough to make a move necessary.