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MLB: Will We Ever See Another Pitcher Reach 3,000 Strikeouts?

By Benno Martens

May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
May 28, 2016; New York City, NY, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports /
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The time running out guys

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports /

Among active pitchers, 60 percent of the top 10 career leaders in strikeouts are given less than a 10 percent chance at reaching 3,000. The top two, CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon, are given no chance at all by the calculation.

Among the others, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Justin Verlander and James Shields are all given a 2 percent chance or less of making it before time runs out on their careers.

Verlander would seem to have the best shot at first glance, being only 33 years old and having passed the 2,000 strikeout mark earlier this season. The calculation sees him falling short, though, projecting 2,530 before he hangs up his spikes, though his injury-riddled 2015 numbers would seem to skew the numbers. Prior to last season, the projection was a healthy 29 percent.

The Tigers right-hander is currently eighth in the big leagues in punchouts this season and has seen his strikeouts per nine innings rise dramatically to the second-highest total of his career. If that production continues and he remains healthy, Verlander could jump right back into the conversation by this time in 2017.

Next: Taking their first steps.

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