MLB: Will We Ever See Another Pitcher Reach 3,000 Strikeouts?
The strikeout is the holy grail for pitchers in Major League Baseball, and amassing 3,000 in a career provides a shot at immortality. Are there any guys on the bump in MLB today that have a shot of reaching the milestone?
There are only 16 pitchers in big league history to strike out 3,000 or more batters in their career, making it an even more elusive feat than reaching 300 career wins. In fact, until 1974, only one man had reached the 3,000 strikeout plateau, the legendary Walter Johnson. That’s more than 50 years of hurlers falling short, including all-time greats like Christy Mathewson, Bob Feller, Warren Spahn and Sandy Koufax.
Much like getting to 300 wins, racking up 3,000 strikeouts requires a pitcher to not only have great pure stuff, but also to stay healthy over the course of a long career and have a little luck on his side. Only three of the pitchers in the club currently played fewer than 20 seasons, with Bob Gibson the low man at 17.
Just two of the club’s members have not been enshrined in the Hall of Fame (Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling), but that’s a debate for another day. In 2015, Cooperstown welcomed the last man to do it, John Smoltz, as well as two others in Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. A full list of the 3,000 K club, as well those who came up just short, can be found here.
With flame throwers the league over stealing headlines on a nightly basis in MLB, we here at Call to the Pen wondered who the next 3,000 K pitcher might end up being. Using the Bill James Favorite Toy formula, there are a few pitchers in the big leagues right now who at the very least stand a shot at reaching the milestone. Let’s take a look at who they are.
Next: It’s not looking good for these guys.
The time running out guys
Among active pitchers, 60 percent of the top 10 career leaders in strikeouts are given less than a 10 percent chance at reaching 3,000. The top two, CC Sabathia and Bartolo Colon, are given no chance at all by the calculation.
Among the others, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Justin Verlander and James Shields are all given a 2 percent chance or less of making it before time runs out on their careers.
Verlander would seem to have the best shot at first glance, being only 33 years old and having passed the 2,000 strikeout mark earlier this season. The calculation sees him falling short, though, projecting 2,530 before he hangs up his spikes, though his injury-riddled 2015 numbers would seem to skew the numbers. Prior to last season, the projection was a healthy 29 percent.
The Tigers right-hander is currently eighth in the big leagues in punchouts this season and has seen his strikeouts per nine innings rise dramatically to the second-highest total of his career. If that production continues and he remains healthy, Verlander could jump right back into the conversation by this time in 2017.
Next: Taking their first steps.
The too early to tell guys
There are a number of young pitchers who are producing eye-popping strikeout numbers, but who due to youth or injury or both, don’t possess enough data to make an accurate projection just yet. Among 2016’s top ten in strikeouts per nine innings thus far, seven are players that are still establishing themselves in some way.
The top two in this category in all of Major League Baseball right now are 23-year-olds Jose Fernandez of the Miami Marlins and Noah Syndergaard of the New York Mets. Stephen Strasburg, Danny Salazar, Drew Pomeranz, Vincent Velasquez and Robbie Ray are all 27 years old or less and feature in the top ten as well.
Throw in arms like Jake Arrieta, Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Jose Quintana, and there are a number of players that, if they continue their current trends, could have a realistic shot at reaching 3,000 strikeouts in their careers.
Next: So you’re saying there’s a chance?
The under 20 percent guys
There are four marquee pitchers in the big leagues right now who the calculation give an outside chance at getting to 3,000 Ks. It’s less than one in five, but it’s better than most players could ever dream of.
David Price, who is given a seven percent shot, is currently 21st among active pitchers with 1,451 strikeouts in this his ninth pro season. The Red Sox lefty is roughly halfway there, but there is reason to believe he has a better than forecasted chance, as his strikeouts per nine innings took off after last season’s midyear trade. Price posted a 10.5 K/9 with the Blue Jays during the second half of 2015, and that number is 10.4 so far in 2016, both eclipsing his career average by nearly 2 K/9.
Just ahead of Price with a 10 percent forecast is Zack Greinke. The righty of the Arizona Diamondbacks should pass the 2,000 K mark sometime around the All-Star break, and at just 32 years old, he should have a few good years left ahead of himself. Greinke’s K/9 is at the lowest it’s been since 2010 this season, but he’s been consistently in the 200 strikeout neighborhood the previous seven years, so there’s no reason to bet against him just yet.
Perhaps the most surprising name on the list is that of Cole Hamels, who the calculation gives a 16 percent chance at joining the club. Hamels is in his age-32 season as well, and sits a mere six strikeouts shy of 2,000. He’s posting the second-best K/9 mark of his career in 2016 at 9.4, and like Greinke always seems to come in right around 200 punchouts every year.
The final member of the under 20 percent club is Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox. The hottest pitcher in the American League through the first two months of the season has a 17 percent chance of amassing 3,000 strikeouts. The lanky lefty turned 27 just before the season began and already has 1,087 strikeouts in his career in just his fifth full year as a starter. Sale led the AL in Ks in 2015 and currently sits third in the league in 2016, despite posting the lowest K/9 of his career. Despite that, he’s still on pace to top 200 for the fourth consecutive season.
Next: Getting closer to the club.
These guys could get there
Now we’re getting to the pitchers who the calculation says have a legitimate chance at joining the 3,000 strikeout club. The names should come as no surprise, as Max Scherzer and Madison Bumgarner are two of the elite arms in the game today.
Bumgarner is only 26 years old despite being in his seventh full major league season, and has a 23 percent forecast for joining the club. Since 2011, the San Francisco Giants lefty has never recorded fewer than 191 strikeouts in a year, has topped 200 in each of the last two, and already has over 1,200 to his credit in his career. Bumgarner is currently fifth in MLB in strikeouts and is posting the highest K/9 of his career at 10.3.
Scherzer is a little older at 31, but is gunning for his fifth straight season over the 200 K mark, and has a 27 percent chance of getting to 3,000. Scherzer is second in MLB in punchouts in 2016, and tied the single game record of 20 earlier in the season. With 1,698 already to his credit in his career and a K/9 that tops 11, the right-hander may be one of the safest bets on the list.
Next: The kings of K?
These guys should reach 3,000 Ks with ease
The final two names on the list are perhaps not surprising, as they are two of the dominant pitchers of the current generation. Felix Hernandez and Clayton Kershaw have progressed from phenoms with electric stuff to the kind of steady veterans whose performances can almost be taken for granted. Almost.
Hernandez, who just began a rare stint on the disabled list, is given a 48 percent chance of reaching 3,000 strikeouts in his career. Only 30 years old, the Seattle Mariners right-hander had a six-season streak of 200+ strikeouts come to an end in 2015, as he only got a mere 191. Hernandez is experiencing his lowest K/9 this season but already has 2,195 strikeouts in his career. Given his age and track record, that 48 percent forecast actually seems a little low.
Next: Will we ever see another pitcher reach 300 wins?
Is it any surprise that Kershaw lands in the top spot of this list? As was the case when we looked at potential 300-win pitchers, the favorite toy calculation makes the Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander the odds-on favorite to reach 3,000 punchouts. Leading the big leagues thus far in his age 28 season and certain to pass the 2,000 mark by year’s end, Kershaw has a 71 percent chance of making it. His current 10.9 K/9 is the second-best of his career, coming on the heels of 2015’s 11.6 mark, and suggests that he is just now hitting his prime. And that’s a scary proposition for big league hitters.