The under 20 percent guys
There are four marquee pitchers in the big leagues right now who the calculation give an outside chance at getting to 3,000 Ks. It’s less than one in five, but it’s better than most players could ever dream of.
David Price, who is given a seven percent shot, is currently 21st among active pitchers with 1,451 strikeouts in this his ninth pro season. The Red Sox lefty is roughly halfway there, but there is reason to believe he has a better than forecasted chance, as his strikeouts per nine innings took off after last season’s midyear trade. Price posted a 10.5 K/9 with the Blue Jays during the second half of 2015, and that number is 10.4 so far in 2016, both eclipsing his career average by nearly 2 K/9.
Just ahead of Price with a 10 percent forecast is Zack Greinke. The righty of the Arizona Diamondbacks should pass the 2,000 K mark sometime around the All-Star break, and at just 32 years old, he should have a few good years left ahead of himself. Greinke’s K/9 is at the lowest it’s been since 2010 this season, but he’s been consistently in the 200 strikeout neighborhood the previous seven years, so there’s no reason to bet against him just yet.
Perhaps the most surprising name on the list is that of Cole Hamels, who the calculation gives a 16 percent chance at joining the club. Hamels is in his age-32 season as well, and sits a mere six strikeouts shy of 2,000. He’s posting the second-best K/9 mark of his career in 2016 at 9.4, and like Greinke always seems to come in right around 200 punchouts every year.
The final member of the under 20 percent club is Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox. The hottest pitcher in the American League through the first two months of the season has a 17 percent chance of amassing 3,000 strikeouts. The lanky lefty turned 27 just before the season began and already has 1,087 strikeouts in his career in just his fifth full year as a starter. Sale led the AL in Ks in 2015 and currently sits third in the league in 2016, despite posting the lowest K/9 of his career. Despite that, he’s still on pace to top 200 for the fourth consecutive season.
Next: Getting closer to the club.