Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Preview

With a number of attractive assets, the Milwaukee Brewers could be big sellers at the trade deadline. Who can we expect to see on the block in the land of beer and cheese?

Though the throwback uniforms they wore this weekend were straight fire, the Milwaukee Brewers are in the unfortunate position of sharing a division with three of the best teams in the National League. Playing 57 games a year against the likes of the Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals isn’t the sort of thing that helps out the winning percentage for a team that has spent the past four seasons in a sort of baseball purgatory after its last trip to the postseason in 2011.

Entering an off day on Monday before beginning a six-game homestand against the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets, the Brewers are sitting five games under .500 at 26-31 and more than a dozen games out of first place. It is already “waiting for next year” season in Milwaukee.

The Brewers could be major players at the MLB trade deadline, though, as a number of their players could be very attractive to contending clubs. Milwaukee made a number of moves during the last year, including unloading guys like Carlos Gomez, Francisco Rodriguez, Mike Fiers, Adam Lind, Khris Davis, and Jean Segura, which threw its rebuilding efforts into overdrive. The result was a farm system that went from being one of the worst in baseball to one of the best. Adding another round of highly-prized prospects via trades, plus four of the first 82 picks in this week’s draft (including No. 5 overall), could set the franchise on a course to be competing in the division once again much more quickly.

First year general manager David Stearns has already made two extremely minor moves, trading former first round pick Jed Bradley, a left-handed reliever who has never panned out, to Atlanta for a player to be named later or cash considerations and returning Rule 5 draft pick Colin Walsh to Oakland after designating him for assignment on May 31st.

But the big splash from the Brew Crew is still to come. Let’s take a look at who the team could move at the deadline as it continues to look towards the future.

Next: A starting arm

Matt Garza

Garza is not exactly a front of the rotation starter, but for a contender looking to shore up the back end of its starting corps, could make a lot of sense. The 32-year old right-hander is currently on a rehab assignment after starting the season on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, but is slated to be big league ready in the next 7-10 days.

He is no longer the kind of pitcher who will flirt with a 200-strikeout season, but Garza has proven to be slightly better than replacement level throughout his career, and in the previous two seasons in Milwaukee was a reliable arm every fifth day. His 2015 numbers of 6-14 with a 5.63 earned run average and full season career worsts in strikeout-to-walk ratio, WHIP, FIP, and hits per nine innings may scare teams off, though.

Garza would not be a half-season rental, as he is signed through 2017 at $12.5 million a season and has a vesting option of $13 million in 2018. If he doesn’t meet that vesting option, though, it becomes a $5 million team option. Were he to return to his 2014 form, when he went 8-8 with a 3.64 ERA and was worth 1.4 bWAR, those salary figures could turn out to be quite the bargain.

Next: Bullpen depth

Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith

A contender looking to bolster the back end of its bullpen will almost certainly kick the tires on Smith and Jeffress. Smith just returned from a torn ligament in his knee after having appeared in 78 games and 76 games the past two seasons respectively, and Jeffress has taken hold of the Brewers’ closing duties, going 15-for-16 in save situations.

Jeffress came on as a solid bullpen option in 2015, appearing in 72 games and posting a 1.5 bWAR in 68 innings of work. The right-hander was 5-0 as a setup man for Rodriguez, with a 2.65 ERA. This season, Jeffress is already worth 0.8 bWAR and sports a 2.36 ERA in 27 appearances.

Smith figured to compete with Jeffress for the closer’s role before bizarrely tearing the LCL ligament in his right knee while taking off his shoe towards the end of spring training. Just 26 years old, the lefty posted career-highs in strikeouts per nine innings, ERA, FIP, and bWAR in 2015, and has a fresh arm due to the stint on the DL.

Both Jeffress and Smith will be free agents at season’s end and should command decent money on the open market, which could cause some potential trade partners to look elsewhere. There is also the possibility, given the fact that both are relatively young, that Milwaukee could hold on to them for the remainder of 2016 and try to work out an extension with one or both.

Next: HR or bust

Jonathan Lucroy

Now 30 years old, Lucroy has established himself as one of the premier offensive catchers in the NL, and is enjoying a terrific first half of the season. Slashing .312/.370/.540 with nine homers and 28 RBIs, the veteran signal caller figures to be one of the most sought-after trade pieces at this year’s deadline.

Perhaps making the former all-star even more attractive is his contract situation. Lucroy is making just $4 million this season and has a team option in 2017 for $5.25 million. That’s a bargain for a player that led the National League in bWAR just two seasons ago and has amassed 2.1 bWAR through the first two months of 2016.

Just a couple of weeks ago, there was a report that he was nearly shipped out of Wisconsin in a three-team deal, so it seems more a question of when and where than if.

Lucroy is in his prime right now, and that means that he’s probably not going to fit with the Brewers’ contention timeline. He’s productive and his contract is a bargain for another season after this one. It’s been awhile since a big trade centered around a catcher, but that should change at the deadline this year.

Next: Former MVP

Ryan Braun

The case of Braun may be the most interesting of any player that could be on the block at the trade deadline this year. The former NL MVP is having a monster first half to 2016, but has a contract that could scare potential trade partners away.

Braun is 32 years old and is signed through 2020 with a mutual option for 2021. After this season, he will still be owed some $76 million ($91 million if the option is exercised), which is a pretty big chunk of change for another team to absorb. There will likely be fewer suitors for his services than Lucroy’s as a result.

But the stats don’t lie, and Braun is still ridiculously productive. Thus far in 2016 he is slashing .337/.406/.552 with nine homers, 33 RBIs, and a 1.8 bWAR, which comes on the heels of a 2015 campaign that saw him put up a .285/.356/.498 slash line with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs. The guy still gets it done at the plate, and that could be very valuable to a contending club.

Next: Atlanta Braves Trade Deadline Preview

The contract, though, not to mention the PED accusations he has endured, may detract from his trade value. It’s also certainly plausible that Milwaukee chooses not to trade the face of their franchise. But with the rumor mill already swirling and several teams reportedly interested, if Stearns can find a blockbuster package for Braun, it may be worth it for the Brew Crew to get out from under his contract and run full speed ahead into their rebuild.