When David Stearns took over as the Milwaukee Brewers GM late last year, he acquired a number of players that he was familiar with, including the resurgent Jonathan Villar.
Villar with a liner to center. He’s going to try to stretch this into a double! The ball is picked up by Cincinnati Reds outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, who fires it in to second. Brandon Phillips applies the tag–backwards–and Villar’s face slides right into Phillips’ backside.
Even if you aren’t terribly familiar with Jonathan VIllar, you likely know of this play, and if you are familiar with Villar, then this is one of his most infamous moments. That is, until this season.
Acquired from the Houston Astros, Stearn’s former team, for minor league pitcher Cy Sneed in November, Villar was thought of as a stop-gap for 2016 until Brewers number one prospect Orlando Arcia was ready to take the helm at short. Instead, Villar is batting .307 with five home runs (two off his career high), and nearly as many stolen bases (21) as RBI (25). His .406 on-base percentage is 67 points higher than his career high.
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Throughout his time in Houston, Villar was considered a good talent but couldn’t shed the ‘raw’ label. While his defense has been below average with the Brewers, his wRC+ stands at 132, much better than league average which stands at 100, and among the likes of Kris Bryant (136) and more than the 131 put up by reigning American League MVP Josh Donaldson and the talented Mookie Betts.
While part of his success may be from regular playing time–he was a utility man with Houston and has already played more games in the big leagues this season than he did all of last year–luck has had something to do with it. Villar currently has a BABIP of .404, which is the second-highest mark in all of baseball behind Starling Martes‘ .409. Generally a player’s BABIP is closer to the .300 mark over the course of a full season, but players with speed, which Villar has displayed by swiping bases, can usually go a bit above that mark by legging out infield singles.
It’s also worth noting that his walk rate is nearly double what it was last year, currently sitting at 14%, while his strikeout rate is just a tick below his career average. His batted ball charts on FanGraphs really tell a story, however. In those charts you can see that he is making more hard contact than in previous years, and is also hitting more line drives than he has throughout his career. Both of these generally translate to more home runs, and they have. His home runs per fly ball rate is currently at 17.9%, the highest of his career. Players with that same rate? Another mention for Mookie Betts, while Hunter Pence and Yasmany Tomas round out the list. Just above them at 18.3% is Baltimore’s Chris Davis, who has made a habit of destroying baseballs in recent years.
As far as his future with the club goes, it will be interesting to see how the Brewers play this one. He is a versatile player that isn’t arbitration eligible until after the 2017 season, which also makes him extremely affordable. Villar made his MLB debut in 2013 but is barely 25 years old and in the midst of a career year. Those factors could play both ways, although there is likely too much control left to squander it now when the return could be much greater down the road. Stearns will certainly have to weigh his options on this one.
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The Brewers have plenty of other big-name pieces that could be on the move at the trade deadline, so Villar should be safe for the next year or two while the club continues to rebuild. There are a lot of prospects on the way however, and his role will likely be diminished as the seasons go on, but hopefully by then his value will be even higher than it is today, and the Brewers can collect a nice haul of talent in return. Then again, if Villar keeps hitting like he has been through the first third of the season, the Brewers may keep him to be their savvy veteran presence for what will hopefully be many postseason runs.