MLB: Will we ever see another player reach 500 home runs?

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The steroid era took some of the shine off the 500 home run club, but everyone still digs the longball. Which current MLB players have a chance at reaching the vaunted mark?

Since Babe Ruth made the permanent switch from pitching to the outfield and started launching baseballs out of stadiums, the home run has been the most iconic part of the game. Sluggers were and are superheroes, marvels of muscle, larger than life.

In the context of the steroid era, that takes on a different meaning, as there are detractors that speak of asterisks and the soiling of the sanctity of the 500 home run club. Twelve of the club’s 27 members have joined since 1999, and include the suspicious names every baseball fan has come to know so well. Bonds, Rodriguez, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro. Whether the diminishing of the club is right or not is a debate for another time, and despite the critics, the 500 homer mark is still the level that every power hitter aspires to.

While the longball is down across the board in Major League Baseball today, there are still plenty of players that fans line up to see in the hopes they will crush a ball beyond that distance that seems reasonable. Some of those sluggers have a chance of reaching 500 home runs in their careers and joining the likes of Ruth, Mays, Mantle and Aaron.

Using the Bill James Favorite Toy formula, we take a look at the players in the big leagues right now who at the very least stand a shot at reaching the milestone. No one is a sure thing, and predictions can prove inaccurate, but based purely on the numbers, the 500 home run club should have another member or two (or more) by the end of the decade.

Next: The future is now.

Young sluggers

Before moving on to the odds of more established players, let’s take a look at a trio of young power hitters that have begun their assaults on the home run record books. In 10 to 15 years, we may be looking at one or more of them as the newest members of the 500 home run club.

The headliner is Mike Trout, which should come as no surprise. Since bursting onto the big league scene as a 20-year-old in 2012, all the New Jersey native has done is win an American League MVP award and finish as runner-up for three others. Still only 24, Trout has already hit over 150 home runs, and according to the projection has a 51 percent chance of reaching 500.

Giancarlo Stanton is next in line behind Trout with a 33 percent chance of reaching the mark. Himself just 26 years old, the Miami Marlins masher is already closing in on the 200 homer plateau, and has become infamous for his tape-measure blasts and ridiculous exit velocities.

The man most often compared to Trout is next on the list. Last year’s National League MVP, Bryce Harper is only 23 years old and passed the 100 home run mark at the beginning of the season. The projection says there is a 31 percent chance that he will make the 500 home run club fun again before he hangs up his spikes.

Next: The odds are not in your favor.

Not a chance

Quite a few players in MLB today stand an excellent chance of getting to 400 career homers, but have zero shot of 500 according to the projection. There are a variety of reasons for this whether it be age, a dropoff in production, or injuries that have led to lost seasons.

Among the top 100 active career home run hitters the most likely to get to 400 home runs with not a chance of 500 are Prince Fielder and Adrian Gonzalez. They would join Carlos Beltran, who got to 400 earlier this season.

Beltran is 39, and though he’s experiencing a resurgence of sorts lately, is projected to finish his career with 442 longballs, which would tie him with Dave Kingman. Fielder, despite only being 32 years old, is given just a one percent chance of 500, with his projected career mark being 408. His being benched recently certainly won’t help him get there.

The projection is slightly kinder to Gonzalez, giving him nine percent odds of amassing 500. The 34-year-old Dodger is projected to hang it up with 415 for his career.

Also of note is the Cincinnati Reds’ Jay Bruce, who the projection gives a 10 percent shot at reaching 500 home runs. Bruce is just 29, and has averaged 30 homers per 162 games played in his career. While he is the constant focus of trade rumors, playing at the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park for a few more years could certainly make him a legitimate contender.

Next: Not likely, but possible.

Just a flicker of hope

One of the most under-the-radar players in baseball in recent memory has to be Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers. Now 37 and armed with a contract extension that will take him through 2018, Beltre is within striking distance of both 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Only five players in history have accomplished that feat.

The projection says Beltre will finish just short at 484 homers, but does give him a 29 percent chance of reaching 500 home runs. As of this writing, he is 77 longballs short, but his home run percentage has increased dramatically over the past two seasons. If Beltre can continue at that pace, it may not be out of the question by the time his contract is up.

Also given a 29 percent chance of reaching 500 is the New York Yankees’ Mark Teixeira. Currently, Tex sits three short of 400 and turned 36 years old at the beginning of the season. Of course, health will be a factor, as he recently sustained an articular cartilage tear in his right knee and may not be back this season. His contract is also up at the end of the year, and a change of scenery appears to be coming.

Behind Beltre and Teixeira is Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays. One of the most feared hitters of the past seven years, Joey Bats is given a 22 percent chance of reaching 500 home runs. In Bautista’s case, he didn’t start hitting for major power until his age 29 season, so he has quite a bit of ground to make up. Beginning with his 54 homer outburst in 2010, he has not hit fewer than 27 in a season, and has launched 239 of the 298 in his career. Now 35, his home run percentage has slipped slightly in 2016, but with 12 already is still on pace to eclipse 30 once again.

Next: This could actually happen.

A legitimate shot

There are two established players among the top 100 active home run hitters who the projection gives better than a one in three chance of getting to 500 home runs. One is Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles, which should perhaps not be too shocking. The other, though, is the Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion, which at the very least surprised the author.

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Davis just turned 30 near the end of Spring Training and sprinted across the 200 career homer mark since becoming an everyday player with the O’s in 2012. Twice the league leader in longballs, Davis has a 43 percent chance of amassing 500 by the time he’s done according to the projection.

He’s hit 11 thus far in 2016, but has seen a major decline in his home run percentage. Currently, he’s hitting the ball out of the park at his lowest rate since 2012. But we’ve all seen Davis get hot before, and he’s averaged 37 homers per 162 games in his career. There’s no reason to expect he won’t be near the top of the league by summer’s end.

Much like Bautista, Encarnacion was a late bloomer as far as power numbers are concerned. He’d hit more than 20 in a season just twice in his first seven years in the big leagues, but since 2012 has never hit fewer than 34. Also like his teammate, he has seen a slip in his home run percentage in 2016. The projection gives Encarnacion, who is only 33, a 34 percent chance of getting to 500 home runs, but it remains to be seen if the free agent to be will chase that mark up north or elsewhere.

Next: Miggy the mega slugger.

Money in the bank

The highest likelihood that the favorite toy projection allows is 97 percent, and that’s exactly where Miguel Cabrera comes in. The Detroit Tigers star is just 80 homers away from 500 as of this writing, and projects to hit a total of 543 before it’s all said and done.

Cabrera has been a model of consistency since breaking in with the Marlins 13 years ago, hitting fewer than 25 longballs in a full season only once and averaging 34 per 162 games. Miggy overcame a slow start to 2016 and is now hitting home runs at the best rate he’s had since his 44-homer 2013 season.

Health has been a major factor in Cabrera getting to this point. 2015 was the first season since his very first that he played fewer than 148 games, and the first since then that he fell short of 25 home runs. Thus far in 2016, he has played every game for the Tigers.

Next: Will we ever see another pitcher reach 3,000 strikeouts?

Still only 33, Cabrera has two MVPs, a Triple Crown, and is also on pace to join the 3,000 hit club. Much like Beltre, he is approaching rarefied air. If Cabrera remains healthy, he will go down in history as perhaps the best hitter of his generation and won’t be waiting long to make a trip to Cooperstown.

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