Just a flicker of hope
One of the most under-the-radar players in baseball in recent memory has to be Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers. Now 37 and armed with a contract extension that will take him through 2018, Beltre is within striking distance of both 500 home runs and 3,000 hits. Only five players in history have accomplished that feat.
The projection says Beltre will finish just short at 484 homers, but does give him a 29 percent chance of reaching 500 home runs. As of this writing, he is 77 longballs short, but his home run percentage has increased dramatically over the past two seasons. If Beltre can continue at that pace, it may not be out of the question by the time his contract is up.
Also given a 29 percent chance of reaching 500 is the New York Yankees’ Mark Teixeira. Currently, Tex sits three short of 400 and turned 36 years old at the beginning of the season. Of course, health will be a factor, as he recently sustained an articular cartilage tear in his right knee and may not be back this season. His contract is also up at the end of the year, and a change of scenery appears to be coming.
Behind Beltre and Teixeira is Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays. One of the most feared hitters of the past seven years, Joey Bats is given a 22 percent chance of reaching 500 home runs. In Bautista’s case, he didn’t start hitting for major power until his age 29 season, so he has quite a bit of ground to make up. Beginning with his 54 homer outburst in 2010, he has not hit fewer than 27 in a season, and has launched 239 of the 298 in his career. Now 35, his home run percentage has slipped slightly in 2016, but with 12 already is still on pace to eclipse 30 once again.
Next: This could actually happen.