A legitimate shot
There are two established players among the top 100 active home run hitters who the projection gives better than a one in three chance of getting to 500 home runs. One is Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles, which should perhaps not be too shocking. The other, though, is the Blue Jays’ Edwin Encarnacion, which at the very least surprised the author.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Davis just turned 30 near the end of Spring Training and sprinted across the 200 career homer mark since becoming an everyday player with the O’s in 2012. Twice the league leader in longballs, Davis has a 43 percent chance of amassing 500 by the time he’s done according to the projection.
He’s hit 11 thus far in 2016, but has seen a major decline in his home run percentage. Currently, he’s hitting the ball out of the park at his lowest rate since 2012. But we’ve all seen Davis get hot before, and he’s averaged 37 homers per 162 games in his career. There’s no reason to expect he won’t be near the top of the league by summer’s end.
Much like Bautista, Encarnacion was a late bloomer as far as power numbers are concerned. He’d hit more than 20 in a season just twice in his first seven years in the big leagues, but since 2012 has never hit fewer than 34. Also like his teammate, he has seen a slip in his home run percentage in 2016. The projection gives Encarnacion, who is only 33, a 34 percent chance of getting to 500 home runs, but it remains to be seen if the free agent to be will chase that mark up north or elsewhere.
Next: Miggy the mega slugger.