St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled this season to stay above .500 despite a potent offense. There might not be an easy fix to what has gone wrong this season.
The St. Louis Cardinals have the longest current streak of playoff appearances in baseball at the moment with five, including one World Series win (2011) and one World Series loss (2013). They have made the playoffs in 12 of 16 years. The Cardinals’ 11 World Series titles are the most in the National League.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs, 39-16 in the National League Central, are threatening to run away with the division. The Cardinals stand at 30-27 and third place in the division, a half game behind the Pittsburgh Pirates. While they are 10 games out of the division lead right now, they stand just one half game out of the Wild Card before Monday’s games and in the first week of June, so no one is giving up on the playoffs.
The wild card format makes everyone a contender, especially a team with as much playoff experience as the Cardinals. With the team in playoff contention the trade deadline is always going to get a lot of attention for a team as high profile as the Cardinals. For a team as battle-tested as the Cardinals, they have had their early season struggles. Rotation anchors Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright have ERAs above five. Their five man rotation has taken every turn this season, which, in the age of pitcher arm injury, is quite remarkable.
We are only a third of the way into the season, but the stability is apparent. Better performance is needed, though. Their rotation ERA of 4.34 is a full two runs worse than the Cubs (2.33), whom they are chasing.
Next: What can the Cardinals do to catch the Cubs?
The Cardinals are an uncharacteristic 3-7 in one run games so far this season. Proficiency in this area is a hallmark of playoff teams and that magic just has not been there so far this season. With an improved offense, perhaps this trend might be reversed, though they are already second in the majors in runs scored.
Baseball-Reference.com has a metric called Pythagorean win-loss to show how much luck has played a part in how the team fares. Considering the Cardinals have a +51 in run differential, they should have a record of 33-23 rather than 29-27, which is significant with only a third of the season gone. Sometimes this can happen if a team has a lot of blowouts which is the case with the Cardinals. 22 of their games have been decided by at least five runs
Going into Sunday’s games, the team was just 14-16 at home this season which must be improved to better their overall record. The Cubs have beaten the Cards four out of six times this season, so this is an area that has to get better as well. One would have to think the Cubs are not going to win 110 plus games and will be more vulnerable as the season goes on.
With a team that has so few obvious holes, there are just a few tweaks to suggest that might make a slight difference before the trade deadline. Injuries usually pop-up but that is difficult to predict. Once past solid performers start doing the job up to that standard, things will get better.
What could they do to give some help to one of their cornerstones?
Next: Back-Up Catcher
Yadier Molina is the best catcher in the game of baseball. His brothers Jose and Bengie established the family craft of catching and Yadier has turned out to be the best in baseball. He has earned the last eight Gold Gloves at catcher in the National League. When he started out the season, with a .341/.426/.457 batting line, the Cardinals must have been thrilled that their catcher could provide so much production out of such a physically demanding position.
It would seem that the Cardinals are leaning a bit too heavily on Molina. Sunday night, he is starting for the 52nd time out of 57 games. Coming into Sunday, Molina was mired in a four for 55 slump. His May batting line plummeted to .212/.288/.293. Back-up Eric Fryer has just 27 at-bats on the season. The team has to start giving Molina more of a breather. He is 33 years old, catching at least 128 games in six of the past seven seasons. It seems clear the physical demands of the position are taking their toll.
Who could the Cardinals acquire to give them the confidence to give Molina more of a rest this summer?
One player they could acquire which likely wouldn’t cost much in terms of prospects would be A.J. Pierzynski, whom the Atlanta Braves would surely be willing to relinquish. Pierzynski played in St. Louis in 2014 after his release from the Boston Red Sox, seeing action down the stretch and in the 2014 National League Championship Series. He is making $3M this season.
Minnesota Twins’ catcher Kurt Suzuki might be another option to consider, though he is making $6M this season and has a vesting option for next season, that the Cardinals would not be too eager to pick up. However, the vesting option would likely not happen since he has to attain 485 plate appearances for that to kick in.
What is more likely is that the Cardinals will seek to bolster their bullpen for the stretch run. Who might be an option to consider?
Next: Bullpen Help
Though a bullpen arm isn’t generally an Earth-shaking acquisition, putting the right pitcher into the high leverage situation mix can make a big difference to win those close games the Cardinals have struggled to win this season.
So far, the stalwarts in the bullpen have been 33 year old rookie Seung-hwan Oh (1.82 ERA, .81 WHIP, eight holds), Kevin Siegrist (2.38 ERA, one save, three holds) and Trevor Rosenthal (3.50 ERA, nine of ten saves converted).
Who else might they pick up if former stars like Jonathan Broxton (5.06 ERA) don’t start performing up to their past norms? Righthander Blaine Boyer of the Milwaukee Brewers and Alexi Ogando of the Atlanta Braves are two candidates for a possible seventh inning role.
Boyer has a 2.03 ERA in 26.2 innings so far this season. He is pitching in some good luck as his FIP (fielding independent pitching which predicts ERA based on hits and walks) is 3.54, but perhaps this is just the way he gets batters out. Last season for the Minnesota Twins he sported a 2.49 ERA but 4.00 FIP. Certainly, the Cardinals notice his success, as he pitches for the NL Central Brewers. He is making only $950 thousand so he would be an affordable option.
Ogando, a veteran righthander, is earning $2M this year. The former Red Sox and Rangers pitcher has been the topic of many trade talks so far this season for the struggling Braves. Ogando was cruising along with a 2.52 ERA until his last two appearances. He allowed five runs while only getting four outs, spiking his ERA to 4.10. This was against the Los Angeles Dodgers who have scored on him the last three times he has faced them. Cost consideration likely makes Boyer the better option.
Next: Jhonny Peralta is their deadline acquisition
As this article was being prepared, the Cardinals made a shakeup in their infield on June 6. Second baseman Kolten Wong, who was signed to a five year, $25.5 million deal in Spring Training, was sent down to Triple-A to make room for Jhonny Peralta who is returning from thumb surgery. Matt Carpenter will move from third base to second, rookie sensation Aledmys Diaz (batting .328 through Sunday, with 30 RBI) will stay at shortstop while Peralta takes over at third base.
Carpenter started at second base for the Cardinals in 2013 when they won the National League pennant. Peralta has gone much longer without seeing action at the hot corner, last starting a game at third base in 2010 with the Tigers. In his career, he has started 203 games at third. Perhaps the Cardinals are looking to give a boost to their offense as Wong, who had played 41 games at second this season, had just a .592 OPS this season. Carpenter, the National League player of the week, has a robust .931 OPS at this writing.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers Trade Deadline Preview
Since the team is second in the majors in runs, third in slugging percentage and fourth in on-base percentage, the offense is not the issue with this team. Still, the fact that the team is willing to send down a highly paid player for the good of the team tells the other players that they will do whatever is necessary to win no matter the payroll implications.