Chicago Cubs Trade Deadline Preview
A team on the cusp of greatness, the Chicago Cubs will pick and choose their spots as the 2016 trade deadline approaches.
On pace to win 116 games, the Chicago Cubs are by far the best team in baseball.
As they carry a ten game lead in the National League Central over the Pittsburgh Pirates, projecting to a 15-game bulge by the trade deadline, the Cubs are in a position where they should not be caught.
With no glaring weakness, you would think outside a spare bullpen arm that the Cubs are set for a deep run into October.
You would be wrong. Although the team appears to be in the middle of a long run, President Theo Epstein, General Manager Jed Hoyer and Manager Joe Maddon know you take nothing for certain.
Even with a team as well as the Cubs, there is room for improvement. Swept by the New York Mets last year in the NL Championship Series, and a franchise eternally linked to goats and failure, the time to win is right now. Merely making the playoffs is not the goal, a victory parade in November is.
As they fire on all cylinders, Chicago has to balance the current goals with future ones. As they search for the last piece completing their championship puzzle, they realize a giant bullseye sits on their backs. How much of the future do they mortgage to win now?
For the Cubs, it is a wonderful problem to have.
Next: Is The Offense a Weakness?
THE OFFENSE
If there is a weakness for a team running away towards a division title now, it is the Cubs offense.
Sure, with the team second in the NL in runs scored, weakness is a relative term. A quick look at their slash line of .255/.352/.423 says things could improve.
The Cubs draw walks, a league best 250 as of June 6. That pumps their OBP to second in the league. Batting average, however, is sixth and slugging is fifth. Again, these are acceptable numbers, but makes them vulnerable come playoff time.
Although Jason Heyward’s slow start accounts for most of the lack of production, Addison Russell needs to stop striking out so much. Those are the lone healthy regulars with an Adjusted OPS+ of under 100.
Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant provide plenty of power, combining for 26 homers, driving in 83. Russell and Ben Zobrist’s RBI totals are over 30 while Bryant by himself has scored 42 times.
Depth is the primary issue going forward.
Kyle Schwarber still is on the 60-day disabled list. Jorge Soler went on the disabled list Tuesday for another hamstring injury. Much depends on how well Albert Almora does replacing Soler. Called up from Triple-A Iowa, MLB.com’s fifth-ranked Cubs prospect and 80th overall, hits for average but not much power. Projected ready next year, will he be able to deal with the pressure of winning now?
Zobrist is 35. While he is having a tremendous season, .326/.438/.500, can he stay healthy down the stretch? How well Tommy La Stella spells Zobrist and the rest of the infield over the next few weeks goes a long way in whether the Cubs try to get another utility player.
The best bet is grabbing an outfielder. If the Cubs ate Matt Kemp’s deal, would the San Diego Padres ask for much?
If Almora can hold his own, the Cubs will breathe easier.
Next: Never Enough Pitching
THE PITCHING
If you think the Cubs are Jake Arrieta and his little brothers, think again.
No Cubs starter has an ERA worse than John Lackey’s 2.88. The Adjusted ERA+ translates to 140 or 40 percent above league average. As a team, the Adjusted ERA+ is 156. With a true ERA of 2.60—yes, 2.60—you would think this unit is ready for October now.
They are, but the Cubs have an interest in New York Yankees lefty reliever Andrew Miller, with some suggesting Kyle Schwarber being dangled in front of the Yankees’ eyes if they are sellers come July.
With two lefties in the pen, Travis Wood and Clayton Richard, the team could use another lefty arm. Wood is off to a great start, a WHIP of 0.955 in 22 innings with an ERA of 2.45. Richard, on the other hand, has an ERA of 8.00 and a WHIP of 2.111. Again, you can paper over that hole in August, but October is different.
None of Chicago’s five starters have missed a start. In fact, the Cubs have only used five all year. Unless an injury pops up, and Jason Hammel’s legs had him leave a start early last week, the Cubs will go with what they have.
Out of the pen, Justin Grimm, along with Richard, has an Adjusted ERA+ of under 100. Yet, Grimm’s WHIP is 1.161. As a team, the pen has a 7-5 won/loss record. Hector Rondon has 11 saves with a WHIP of 0.672. Safe to say the Cubs are set.
Next: Show Me the Money
THE CONTRACTS
Chicago is carrying a payroll of $170.8 million. Next year that drops for the moment to $117.3 million. If they need to eat a bloated contract they can.
In the position to win right now, and with only three players eligible for free agency next year, they have the flexibility if needed to take on more.
Arrieta has one more year of arbitration. Rizzo and Zobrist are signed through 2019. Soler and Jon Lester are locked until 2020. Even Heyward will be only 33 when his deal finishes in 2023. Kris Bryant does not reach arbitration until 2018 and Schwarber until 2019.
Rarely does a team in this position have their long-term affairs in order as the Cubs do.
The only things Chicago is selling in July is $8 beers and playoff tickets.
Outside of a Kemp-type of outfielder or an unexpected pitching injury, expect Chicago to keep their payroll close to what it is now. If they need to spend, they will.
When you are looking at minor pieces to fill in a championship puzzle, however, those are cheaper in the pro-rated $4-6 million range. How healthy the Cubs stay will shape the final wage bill.
Next: What Will The Cubs Do?
THE CRYSTAL BALL
A large chunk of what Chicago considers over the next seven weeks depends on everyone staying healthy.
Yes, another left-handed reliever would be nice. Heyward finding his stroke and Soler returning quickly from his injury would too. It would be an incredible feat if Chicago never needed to use more than five starters.
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The Cubs needs are luxuries. At 40-16 as of June 6, they are, if you can believe this, unlucky. Their Pythagorean record is 43-13. If anything, gulp, the Cubs are underperforming.
A good team never rests on its laurels. Finding someone to match with Wood as a lefty out of the pen would be a good idea. Ensuring the everyday players get rest once they clinch a playoff spot is essential. If, and this a big if, the Cubs continue on this pace, they will play nearly the last quarter of the season in meaningless, to them, games. The toughest job will be ensuring everyone gets playing time and healthy without taking the foot off the pedal.
Through waiver deals, calling kids up as needed from Triple-A Iowa and eating a bad contract, the Cubs can mix and match the rest of the way.
Health is the key. They have a winning poker hand right now. Outside of improving depth, they will not be buyers unless injuries mount.
Next: St. Louis Cardinals Trade Deadline Preview
As of now, the shopping list is light.