Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce is Bouncing Back
Jay Bruce was not supposed to be with the Cincinnati Reds right now. However, they have to be glad he is still in town.
During this past off-season it seemed certain that the Cincinnati Reds would trade Jay Bruce. In February a deal seemed imminent that would have sent the right fielder to the Toronto Blue Jays. However, medical concerns regarding one of the players in the deal stopped that trade from happening.
Once the season started Bruce was still in right field for the Reds, and for the first month and a half struggled at the plate. In March/April Bruce hit .241/.299/.456 with a 95 wRC+. This came on the heels of back-to-back seasons in which he failed to crack an OPS+ of 100. From 2010 through 2013 Bruce was a two time all-star, and one of the best hitters in Cincinnati’s lineup. Now, in his age twenty nine season, fans were wondering if he could return to that pre-2014 form.
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However, as the calendar flipped to May a new Jay Bruce started to emerge at the plate. Since May 1, a span of 31 games, Bruce has hit .297/.344/.661 with 9 HR and 25 RBI. That type of production has Bruce on track for one of the best offensive seasons of his career.
What exactly has led to this bounce back season from Bruce? Admittedly the sample size is still fairly small, but there have been enough good signs for fans to be optimistic.
During this stretch Bruce is carrying a .317 BABIP which is admittedly out of step with his career mark of .287. While this likely suggests that Bruce’s offensive numbers will regress some, there are factors that help explain the bump. Currently Bruce is swinging at a career low 26.3% of pitches out of the strike zone. Part of Bruce’s success could stem from increased plate discipline. He’s also running a career high 78.3% contact rate.
There’s another reason for Bruce’s recent production. When you look at his zone profile one thing becomes abundantly clear. He is destroying pitches on the outer half of the plate.
Just about everything seems to be clicking for Bruce since May 1. In that period of time he’s hitting .317 and slugging .707 on fastballs. Against sinkers, the pitch he’s seen the second most since May 1, he’s batting .400 and slugging .840.
Most stats you would consider looking at to explain a hitter’s hot streak really aren’t too out of the ordinary. His BB% and SO% are basically in line with his career averages. He’s going up the middle a little more (37.7 Cent%), but this pull rate is basically unchanged (45.5%). His soft, medium, and hard contact rates are all basically where you would expect them to be.
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Bruce has the look of a hitter on a hot streak who will likely regress in the coming weeks. However, he’s shown an ability to hit this well before so fans shouldn’t simply dismiss this as a fluke. A solid month or two of hitting would go a long way toward reestablishing Bruce’s trade value. Reds fans should enjoy this while they can because it’s likely he’ll be playing elsewhere by the trade deadline.