As we look to the MLB Draft on Thursday, how have previous #1 overall picks fared in the 2000s?
2000: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Florida Marlins
Gonzalez was the first pick in the 2000s (yes, I know 2001 is the first year of the millenium, but w’re not here to worry about that!). The Marlins were coming off their tear down from their 1997 World Series championship all the way to being the worst team in all of baseball in 1999. The very interesting part is that Adrian’s trade away from the Marlins helped their run to their 2nd World Series as he was moved to Texas in a package of prospects for Ugueth Urbina.
Gonzalez was part of one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory as the Rangers traded he, Terrmel Sledge, and Chris Young (the outfielder) to the Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and a prospect that never made the majors. Eaton had a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts for the Rangers before becoming a free agent. Otsuka did close for the Rangers and saved 32 games for the team in 2006 and was solid in 2007 until he got hurt, but he was never able to come back after the injury.
Gonzalez blossomed in San Diego, hitting .304 with 24 home runs in his first full season with the Padres. He hit 30 home runs 4 straight seasons for San Diego in spite of being in one of the biggest ballparks in the majors. He’s currently with the Dodgers, hitting .284/.364/.401 as the starting first baseman for the Dodgers.
Career bWAR: 42.3
2001: Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
In a draft with Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira gaining all the headlines, the Twins made a very bold move by picking the local player, a catcher no less. Mauer moved quickly through the system, and his fast ascent actually helped produce some of best Twins teams in the last 20 years as the Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants after the 2003 season for Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan in order to open the starting spot up for Mauer.
Mauer was just the best hitting catcher possibly ever in his time behind the dish for the Twins, but he got clocked in the head much too frequently, and after winning 3 batting titles and winning an MVP award as a catcher, the Twins moved Mauer to first base in 2014.
Mauer is currently the starting first baseman for the Twins, hitting .281/.388/.412.
Career bWAR: 49.4
2002: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bullington is a great example of why the draft system needed to be changed. Due to the fact that they knew they couldn’t afford Melvin Upton, Jr., Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, or Jeff Francis, the Pirates went with the low-cost, reportedly high-floor option in Bullington.
He came from college, and the Pirates challenged him by sending him directly to full season A ball to start his pro career in 2003, and he earned a promotion to high-A. Then he got to AA, and his lack of stuff became overly apparent. Sure, he could mix pitches and sneak balls past A-ball hitters, but advanced hitters made good contact, and his strikeout rate was the first sign of issues.
Bullington did make the majors in 2005, but nearly immediately blew out his arm and missed all of the 2006 season. He did not have an ERA under 4 again as a start in the majors or minors.
Bullington is now entering his 6th season in the Japanese leagues. He’s gone 45-45 with a 3.25 ERA in 124 starts in Japan, and he’s happy to be there.
Career bWAR: -0.3
Next: Young, Bush, Upton