MLB Draft: First Picks of the Draft in the 2000’s
As we look to the MLB Draft on Thursday, how have previous #1 overall picks fared in the 2000s?
2000: Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Florida Marlins
Gonzalez was the first pick in the 2000s (yes, I know 2001 is the first year of the millenium, but w’re not here to worry about that!). The Marlins were coming off their tear down from their 1997 World Series championship all the way to being the worst team in all of baseball in 1999. The very interesting part is that Adrian’s trade away from the Marlins helped their run to their 2nd World Series as he was moved to Texas in a package of prospects for Ugueth Urbina.
Gonzalez was part of one of the most lopsided trades in recent memory as the Rangers traded he, Terrmel Sledge, and Chris Young (the outfielder) to the Padres for Adam Eaton, Akinori Otsuka, and a prospect that never made the majors. Eaton had a 5.12 ERA in 13 starts for the Rangers before becoming a free agent. Otsuka did close for the Rangers and saved 32 games for the team in 2006 and was solid in 2007 until he got hurt, but he was never able to come back after the injury.
Gonzalez blossomed in San Diego, hitting .304 with 24 home runs in his first full season with the Padres. He hit 30 home runs 4 straight seasons for San Diego in spite of being in one of the biggest ballparks in the majors. He’s currently with the Dodgers, hitting .284/.364/.401 as the starting first baseman for the Dodgers.
Career bWAR: 42.3
2001: Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
In a draft with Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira gaining all the headlines, the Twins made a very bold move by picking the local player, a catcher no less. Mauer moved quickly through the system, and his fast ascent actually helped produce some of best Twins teams in the last 20 years as the Twins traded A.J. Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants after the 2003 season for Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan in order to open the starting spot up for Mauer.
Mauer was just the best hitting catcher possibly ever in his time behind the dish for the Twins, but he got clocked in the head much too frequently, and after winning 3 batting titles and winning an MVP award as a catcher, the Twins moved Mauer to first base in 2014.
Mauer is currently the starting first baseman for the Twins, hitting .281/.388/.412.
Career bWAR: 49.4
2002: Bryan Bullington, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Bullington is a great example of why the draft system needed to be changed. Due to the fact that they knew they couldn’t afford Melvin Upton, Jr., Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder, or Jeff Francis, the Pirates went with the low-cost, reportedly high-floor option in Bullington.
He came from college, and the Pirates challenged him by sending him directly to full season A ball to start his pro career in 2003, and he earned a promotion to high-A. Then he got to AA, and his lack of stuff became overly apparent. Sure, he could mix pitches and sneak balls past A-ball hitters, but advanced hitters made good contact, and his strikeout rate was the first sign of issues.
Bullington did make the majors in 2005, but nearly immediately blew out his arm and missed all of the 2006 season. He did not have an ERA under 4 again as a start in the majors or minors.
Bullington is now entering his 6th season in the Japanese leagues. He’s gone 45-45 with a 3.25 ERA in 124 starts in Japan, and he’s happy to be there.
Career bWAR: -0.3
Next: Young, Bush, Upton
2003: Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
With family bloodlines and one of the most advanced hit tools that many scouts had ever seen in a high school player, Delmon was a clear #1 selection. He made a quick ascension to the majors, ending up in the majors at 20 in 2006, hitting .317 in a short stint. His first full season in 2007, he hit .288 with 93 RBI and finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting.
The Rays made the move to trade him to the Minnesota Twins, and it could be argued that it was a key move to their run to the 2008 World Series, as they traded Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie for Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, and a minor leaguer. Bartlett and Garza were huge cogs on the 2008 team (Garza was even the ALCS MVP for the Rays that season).
In the end, Young struggled with a poor attitude and poor condition, and he never really became the power hitter his natural skills suggested he could become. His best season came in 2010 for the Twins, when he hit .298/.333/.493 with 46 doubles and 21 home runs and 112 RBI. His plate discipline was still poor, though as he walked only 28 times in 613 plate appearances.
Young was traded by the Twins in 2011, and he bounced around the league. He’s currently not playing in the major leagues or minor leagues.
Career bWAR: 2.5
2004: Matt Bush, SS, San Diego Padres
Bush was a tremendous story of sadness until this season. He was drafted as a shortstop in a draft dominated with great pitching that the Padres assumed they couldn’t afford (Justin Verlander, Philip Humber, Jeff Niemann, Homer Bailey, Jered Weaver). Bush was a guy with a gun of an arm, and a significant drinking problem. He never could get the bat going.
The Padres finally tried to move him to the mound in 2007, but by then his alcoholism was raging, and he ended up having TJS and having to sit out the entire 2008 season. That offseason an incident led to the Padres trading him away for cash considerations to the Blue Jays, but within 60 days, he had been drunk at a party and attempted to assault a woman, and the Blue Jays immediately released him. He was out of baseball all of 2009.
The Rays signed him in 2010, and he worked his way up their minor league system until Bush ended up charged and serving time due to an incident where a drunken Bush ran over a 72 year-old man.
The Rangers signed him in December of this season after he had served his prison sentence. He’s already worked his way to their major league team, and he’s made 11 relief appearances with a 1.69 ERA, walking 1 and striking out 11.
Career bWAR: 0.4
2005: Justin Upton, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Upton moved quickly through the D’backs system, going from the 2005 draft two months before his 18th birthday to debuting in August 2007, roughly 20 days before he turned 20. Upton flashed tons of talent throughout his time in Arizona, even arguably earning the 2011 MVP before Ryan Braun was awarded it and eventually found to have failed a PED test.
Upton has struggled to hit like the power hitter his talent says he should be, only achieving 30 home runs one time in his entire career. Currently, he is hitting very poorly for the Detroit Tigers .220/.255/.325 with 3 home runs, and he’s struck out 76 times, the most in all of baseball.
Career bWAR: 24.3
Next: Hochevar, Price, Beckham
2006: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Kansas City Royals
Hochevar was drafted three times, going from a 39th rounder to the 40th selection overall, and instead of signing, he pitched in independent ball for a season, and he was impressive enough that the Royals made him the top pick in 2006. Hochevar, however, never could seem to get it as a starter at the major league level, pitching to a 5.44 ERA.
The Royals did what the Royals do, they took a great arm and turned him into a dominant reliever. His arm did pop, however, requiring him to miss the 2014 season with TJS. He returned back, and he’s been dominant again. This season, he’s made 24 appearances with a 2.82 ERA with a 4/26 BB/K.
Career bWAR: 3.3
2007: David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Price was one of the highest regarded college pitchers of the last 25-30 years when he was drafted in 2007. He moved quickly, making his debut in 2008 and serving as a reliever for the 2008 Rays that made a run through the playoffs.
In his 9 seasons, he has won 111 games, including finishing in the top 2 of Cy Young voting three times in his career and making 5 All-Star games.
Career bWAR: 29.4
2008: Tim Beckham, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Beckham quickly became known as a choice of a team getting “too cute”, as he was selected first over Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hosmer, and Buster Posey. While athletic, his baseball talent was never as good as his atheticism, and he got some pretty rough marks for his make up along the way.
Beckham has hit .267/.332/.381 across just short of 3,000 minor league plate appearances. He debuted with the Rays in 2013, and he’s found himself to be a bench bat since, hitting to a .180/.231/.328 line in 19 games in 2016.
Career bWAR: 0.0
Next: Strasburg, Harper, Cole
2009: Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Washington Nationals
Strasburg was the center of a new generation of coverage for the draft. He was on Sportscenter on ESPN before his draft. The big advent in the meantime was the availability of video from scouting sources online, so the average Joe could see video of the top guys now, so by the time Strasburg was drafted, many baseball fans had seen him throw.
Strasburg took very little time to make the majors, debuting roughly a year after he was drafted, and his triple digit heat and major breaking stuff led to tons of headlines and must-see TV. Then his elbow popped, and he missed nearly all of 2011 after TJS. Strasburg has come back well since, but never been the stud that everyone assumed he’d be, frequently due to missing time to injury.
2016 has been different, however. Strasburg has flown under the radar in a season of Kershaw and Arrieta, leading the league with 9 wins with a 2.85 ERA and striking out 100 in 79 innings of work.
Career bWAR: 16.4
2010: Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals
If Strasburg was the start of the new type of coverage, Harper was the guy made to take it to the masses. He was the 16 year-old kid that graduated early so he could hit with a wood bat. He was the guy that was on video hitting 500-foot shots with a wood bat. He was the 16 year-old kid who looked more physically mature than most major league veterans. For all those reasons, minor league attendance was very high when he was coming up through the Nationals system.
Harper has been that player that fans of opposing teams love to hate and fans of the Nationals absolutely love. His hard play in the outfield and reckless base running is viewed by one side as a virtue, the other side as immaturity. His comments to the media viewed as funny and sarcastic to those who support him, viewed as cocky and disrespectful by those who do not.
Then, he put up his 2015. He led the league in runs scored, home runs, on base, and slugging. He hit 42 home runs and 38 doubles while hitting .330. Now there were arguments about whether he may be the best hitter in the entire game and if he could be a guy to get $500 million when he becomes a free agent after 2018.
This season, he’s shuffled a bit, hitting .249/.413/.521, but he’s walked more than he’s struck out and showed his tremendous athleticism, stealing 7 bases already (he stole 6 all of last season).
Career bWAR: 21.6
2011: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
It seemed the 2011 draft could have been one where the Pirates threw a dart and picked the right guy at #1 with four big arms that all made sense to go #1 in Cole, Danny Hultzen, Trevor Bauer, and Dylan Bundy. I think the Pirates are happy they got the guy they did!
Cole found himself moving quickly, coming up in 2013 and making 19 major league starts. He took a big step forward in 2015, going 19-8 with a 2.60 ERA and a 44/202 BB/K. That could have garnered Cy Young consideration in any other season, but not last season in the NL.
This season he’s had continued success, with a 2.85 ERA over 11 games and 66 1/3 innings with a 19/52 BB/K.
Career bWAR: 8.4
Next: Correa, Appel, Aiken, Swanson
2012: Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
2012 marked the start of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The new CBA changed the finances of the draft, creating a slotting system. Due to this, the Astros went with Correa over Byron Buxton due to Correa’s cheaper number to sign. Needless to say, I think they’re happy they made that choice.
Correa worked his way up the system quickly, making his debut last summer. Since his debut was June 8th of last season, we now have roughly a season worth of data, where Correa has hit .275/.359/487 with 30 home runs and 22 steals. Oh, and he plays a very good shortstop on top of hitting like an MVP candidate.
Correa is hitting .267/.357/.443 this year.
Career bWAR: 5.5
2013: Mark Appel, RHP, Houston Astros
Appel was one of the best pitchers in the 2012 draft but returned to school. He was then selected by the Astros, and they put him immediately at full-season A-ball. He didn’t have a perfect ERA, but he showed very good skills. He has since struggled, posting a combined ERA of 6.91 in 2014 and then 4.37 in 2015.
Appel still has great stuff, now part of the Phillies organization at AAA. He has yet to make his major league debut.
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2014: Brady Aiken, LHP, Houston Astros
Aiken may end up being part of the reasoning behind some big changes in the upcoming CBA. The Astros drafted him #1 in an attempt to do some manipulation with their draft pool, and then they found an issue with his elbow ligament. They tried to back out of the original deal they had with Aiken, but he refused to negotiate down, so the Astros flat cancelled his deal, which then cost two other draft picks their deals as their deals were predicated on the money left over from Aiken signing under slot.
Lo and behold, after the dust cleared, Aiken went to a pitching academy and ended up actually having TJS due to issues with his elbow ligament, vindicating the Astros to some degree. He went 17th overall to the Indians in last summer’s draft but has yet to make his pro debut as he recovers from elbow injury. His issues with the Astros could end up being a big piece of a hard slotting system being proposed for the draft in the next CBA.
2015: Dansby Swanson, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
After a highly decorated college career, the Arizona Diamondbacks made Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson the top pick last June. He barely got his feet wet in the Arizona system before he was a key component of the Shelby Miller trade between the Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves.
Swanson has moved quickly in the Braves system this season, already showing that he could be ready to make a major league appearance by the end of the season. He’s currently hitting .298/.392/.471 with 24 extra base hits and 10 stolen bases between high-A and AA (4 of his 5 home runs have come with AA!).
Next: What can we learn?
So what’s it all mean?
In the 2000s, there have been 8 #1 draft picks from high school, 6 from college, one from junior college, and one from independent ball. The two highest WARs are from high school players, but they’re also from the first two picks of the 2000s, so the players have had the most time to accumulate WAR as well.
From the guys who failed or had to “redefine” themselves to have any sort of big league career, 3 of the “failures” were high school picks, one from college, and the other was the independent ball selection.
I think we see quickly that manipulating for money is a bad decision in the long run when you’re selecting #1. There are only so many times that you get the #1 pick, and basically, only with Correa has picking a guy who would sign for less money worked out well for the team.
Pitcher versus hitter doesn’t seem to really matter. The “failure” guys were two pitchers and three hitters. The best guys via WAR were both hitters, but in general, WAR tends to favor hitters. Overall, 7 pitchers were selected and 9 hitters were selected at the top of the draft.
When the Phillies step to the podium on Thursday evening, if they went along the most popular trends, their pick would be a high school hitter. Instead, it sounds like they’re actually going to buck both of the most popular routes of the 2000s and go with a college pitcher. In the 2000s, college pitchers chosen #1 were Appel, Cole, Strasburg, Price, and Bullington, so the range of outcomes varies widely.