Arizona Diamondbacks stay patient as trade market heats up
The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t overreacting to trade rumors despite a disappointing start to their season.
The 2012 Miami Marlins should serve as a cautionary tale that making the splashiest moves during the offseason doesn’t always lead to success. The same could be said of the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays. Or the 2015 Chicago White Sox. Or the 2015 San Diego Padres.
It’s quite possible the 2016 Arizona Diamondbacks could join that inglorious fraternity. The Diamondbacks were a popular pick to compete for the National League West title—or at least a Wild Card—due to their headline-grabbing offseason acquisitions. The two biggest moves were luring Zack Greinke away from their division foes in Chavez Ravine and giving a king’s ransom to the Atlanta Braves for the services of pitcher Shelby Miller.
Things have not gone according to plan: Center fielder A.J. Pollock, an under-rated Most Valuable Player candidate and centerpiece of 2015’s best defensive outfield, broke his elbow in a meaningless exhibition April 1, just days before the season was to begin; Miller has been a shell of the pitcher he was in St. Louis and Atlanta; and Greinke had an earned run average above 5.00 midway through May.
The Diamondbacks are 26-36 and sit 10.5 games behind the division-leading San Francisco Giants and are 7.5 games behind the Pittsburgh Pirates for the second Wild Card. Chief Baseball Officer Tony La Russa has said the team won’t start shopping it’s players because it’s too early to give up on 2016; the cost of giving away prospects is high; and the moves made this offseason were made with future success in mind.
While they’re sitting on what they have, the Diamondbacks’ plans could change over the coming months.
Next: The Diamondacks' wacky season
The injury to Pollock is an obvious place to start for the Diamondbacks’ woes. Pollock was worth 7.4 Wins Above Replacement last season according to Baseball-Reference, and the void he left was too big for anyone on the roster to fill. In 20/20 hindsight, it would’ve been easier if the team hadn’t sent Ender Inciarte to the Braves as part of the Miller deal.
Want an example of how crazy the team’s outfield situation has been this season without Pollock? Consider the Diamondbacks’ 6-2 loss to the Cardinals May 21: That day, Manager Chip Hale wrote Rickie Weeks, Chris Owings and Brandon Drury as the three outfielders on the lineup card. Weeks is a career second baseman; Owings is a middle infielder who never played outfield prior to this season; and Drury is a rookie infielder who had never played outfield in either the majors or minors prior to this season.
Understandably, the outfield defense has cost the team a lot of runs this season, and David Peralta’s time on the Disabled List hasn’t helped the cause, either.
In addition to a revolving door in the outfield, the pitching rotation has under-performed. Entering Wednesday the Diamondbacks’ rotation was 20th in Fielding Independent Pitching (4.48), 17th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.38) and 23rd in home runs per nine innings (1.32).
Next: Why they're staying put
La Russa alluded to it in the article linked earlier: “…they take your best kids, and we like our young players.”
Apparently that thought process wasn’t used in the Miller trade. In addition to Inciarte, the Diamondbacks sent 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson and pitcher Aaron Blair to the Braves. Both are top-100 prospects—Swanson is No. 6 overall according to MLB.com and Blair is No. 51—and mailing them to Atlanta left the Diamondbacks with just one prospect in the top 100.
Another reason to stay put has to do with their screwy season: There are some positives among the madness.
For example, Greinke is starting to turn things around, throwing seven and nine shutout innings over his last two starts. Miller is set to begin his rehab assignment today, during which he’ll try to rediscover himself. Also, the bullpen has been somewhat reliable. They don’t strike out a lot of hitters (7.90 entering Wednesday, 23rd in the majors), but they also don’t give up many home runs (0.77) and are middle of the road in FIP (14th at 4.04).
The Diamondbacks also can handle the lumber a little bit. Other than shortstop Nick Ahmed, all of the everyday hitters are close to league average and the team is ninth in the majors with a .325 weighted on-base average.
Next: Where they could improve
In the outfield is the most obvious place, and there is help in the minors. Peter O’Brien is putting up monster numbers in Triple-A this season, slashing .337/.362/.683 with 17 home runs entering Wednesday. That’s a .442 wOBA, and his bat would be a welcome addition to the lineup.
The Diamondbacks could also use another good pitcher to help in the rotation, and the minors could supply that as well. Braden Shipley is fifth in the Pacific Coast League in ERA (3.23) and FIP (3.60) and is fourth in K/BB (5.20). He could join the rotation later this season and reunite with former top prospect Archie Bradley, who allowed just four runs and struck out 19 over his first two starts after being recalled from the minors. (Last night he pitched 5 2/3 innings and allowed four earned runs.)
The most beneficial improvement in the rotation would have to come from Miller. From 2013 to 2015, Miller had a 3.27 ERA, 3.87 FIP and was one of the best No. 2 starters in the game. A return to his past form would be a welcome occurrence.
The Diamondbacks could also try to improve their farm system. While they may not be willing to part with a player who could bring back top-shelf talent, dealing a few bullpen arms to a team that needs help late in games could bring back a few worthwhile prospects.
Next: Possible moves
It would completely sabotage the bullpen, but if the Diamondbacks decided they wanted to land a few prospects, they have some relievers who would be good rentals for other teams.
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Daniel Hudson and Brad Ziegler will be free agents at the end of the season. They also have been two of the team’s most reliable bullpen arms. Hudson has a 1.52 ERA in 23 2/3 innings entering Wednesday and Ziegler has 11 saves with a 3.00 ERA. If it becomes clear the team isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot as the trade deadline approaches, they could flip the two relievers and maximize their value now and wait to address bullpen concerns in the offseason.
Weeks will also be a free agent at the end of the season and could be included in a deal. Outfielder Michael Bourn, whom the D-backs signed after he was released by the Braves, and pitcher Josh Collmenter could also be free agents if their 2017 options aren’t picked up. The extra year of control could make them more appealing to potential buyers.
Next: First picks of MLB Draft in the 2000's
Since the Diamondbacks don’t have many noteworthy prospects left in the farm system, adding a bullpen arm or a reliable outfielder is most likely out of the question. Blowing up the team also isn’t likely to happen because the team taking the field right now is not the team the Diamondbacks’ brass envisioned would be taking the field in 2016.