New York Yankees Failing With First Round Draft Picks

The New York Yankees have struggled to draft a long-term impact player in the first round in recent memory.

As the 2016 MLB draft marches into day three, we will undoubtedly begin the transition from projecting where prospects might end up (both in terms of draft position and organization) to prognosticating what impact the newly acquired raw talent may produce for all 30 teams.

Comparisons will inevitably be made, as ceilings and floors are assigned to each pick. Part of the beauty of the draft process is the naïve, yet not completely unfounded, degree of hope and positivity that every front office and fan base currently possesses about each of their picks, most especially their first rounder. In theory, any of the thirty young men selected on Thursday possesses the potential to blossom into that current All-Star caliber player their skill set most closely resembles. In practice, very few of them will ever reach such a lofty pinnacle of performance.

While the good vibes currently pulsing through each respective fanbase are all in some ways fragile, some ought to have more concern than others. There’s a science to drafting well. The development of a star, or regression of a bust, is the end result of a number of factors, many of them which prove to be entirely external and impossible to predict.

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Still, some organizations have better track records than others, and this is emblematic of the discrepancies in the quality of contemporary scouting and player development each currently deploys. Those whom rely more heavily on less precise methods of player evaluation, and less upon analytically minded means of player development tend to produce inferior results to those who have embraced a newer, demonstrably better way of doing things.

When evaluating the relative recent success of each team, one rather surprising finding is the utter void of first round draft hits coming from the team which possesses the most lofty supply of resources this side of the Dodgers. This team is the New York Yankees, and their lack of success at the top of the draft is beginning to reach rather historical proportions of futility.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Yankees possessed a plethora of homegrown talent. Their dynasty years of the late 90s and early 00s featured a cast of characters that included the likes of Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte. No doubt, their capacity to augment such a homegrown core with pricey acquisitions such as Roger Clemens, Tino Martinez and Paul O’Neill had something to do with their massive success, but their farm system was a relatively well-oiled machine.

Times, though, have changed. The Yankees’ current roster has just one position player (Brett Gardner) drafted by the organization (3rd round in 2005) with over 100 ABs, along with one significant pitcher (Dellin Betances) whom likewise began his career by being drafted into the pinstripes. To be fair, outside of Jeter none of the core players from the previous generation were high end picks. Bernie Williams was an international signing, while the others were all drafted beyond the 20th round. Still, the Yankees generally lack minor league depth, having been ranked in the second tier of MLB farm systems each of the past three years by Baseball Prospectus.

As measures to even dollars in both the free agent and international signing markets continue to dilute the financial cushion of playing in the league’s largest market, the Yankee’s inability to secure high quality talent at the top of the draft may be, for their fans, the most unnerving aspect of this pattern.

Solace may be taken, though, in the fact that the Yankees have, quite frankly, not missed out on much. An analysis of their first round picks over the past decade reveals not a long litany of decisions in the realm of Bush over Verlander or Appel over Bryant, but rather coming up short within situations where opportunity was decidedly barren. In 2006 they selected Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain with their two first round picks.

Both went on to have disappointing big league careers when held up against initial expectations. However, the only other first rounder taken after the Yankees’ initial pick that season who went on to do much of anything in the big leagues was 2009 Rookie of the Year and chronic injury-sufferer Chris Coghlan. In 2007 the Yankees took Andrew Brackman, missing out on Todd Frazier, Travis d’Arnaud and Josh Donaldson in the process, but every team passed on Donaldson at least once before he was taken late in the supplemental round. Frazier only recently finally blossomed, while d’Arnaud has only shown sporadic flashes of his full potential.

In subsequent years the best first rounder they passed on would be Logan Forsythe and Chris Owings. They did pass on Noah Syndergaard in 2010, but then lacked a first round pick until #51 in 2011, and only missesd out on Stephen Piscotty in 2012. More recent first rounders Aaron Judge (2013) and James Kaprielian (2015) are considered high level prospects, each ranked in the top three of the Yankees system. One must also consider how they selected future #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole in the late first round of 2008, with Cole deciding to go to college rather than sign; a bold move that paid off big for him.

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So, perhaps the ineptitutde of the Yankees drafting is overstated. Or perhaps not. Whatever the real reasons behind their recent drought at the top of their draft board, it is an interesting development, and thus one worthy of further examination. Whatever the case, this is a team that will have to get significantly younger in the coming years, so for better or worse their ability to develop their own will quickly be on much more prominent display.