May 18, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago White Sox shortstop Jimmy Rollins (7) reacts after missing a line drive against the Houston Astros during the sixth inning at U.S. Cellular Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports
Rollins was recently designated for assignment by the Chicago White Sox in lieu of their top prospect Tim Anderson, and after he struggled to find a job this offseason before taking a minor league contract with the White Sox, it could spell the end of Rollins’ career.
With an NL MVP in his past and the stats above, Rollins could make a decent argument for the Hall of Fame, and while the current loaded ballot would give him problems, he’d be a good discussion point. That led me to thinking about a number of recent players who have been very good on a historical level, but perhaps weren’t appreciated enough in their own time.
While we’ll explore those other players moving forward, Rollins is the focus on this slide, and his career is one where there are some interesting comparisons. For instance, on his Baseball Reference page, Rollins’ top three similarity scores for his career are Barry Larkin, a Hall of Famer, Alan Trammell, and Lou Whitaker, the latter two both being guys who many feel were snubbed and should be in the Hall.
Then you look at some of the analytical statistics that are out there. The most cited of them, “JAWS”, scores Rollins at 39.2 with an average HOF SS being at 54.8. Via “Black Ink”, Rollins has a 14 score, which is short of the 27 of the average HOFer. Via “Gray Ink”, Rollins has 82 with the average HOFer having 144. On Hall of Fame Standards, Rollins scores 42 with an average HOFer scoring 50. Now on the Hall of Fame Monitor, Rollins scores a 121 while a likely HOFer scores 100.
I do think Rollins likely ends up short of the Hall of Fame, but he has some intriguing argument for a spot on the wall of display in Cooperstown for sure!
When Damon couldn’t find another job after struggling through an injury-riddled 2012 season before being released in August by the Indians, many just assumed he was done, and he never got another shot to pursue his goal of reaching 3,000 hits, ending up 231 hits short at age 38.
Damon got much more attention for his long hair and beard on the 2004 Red Sox team that broke through to end Boston’s long World Series drought, only to then leave after the 2005 season for the Red Sox primary rival, the New York Yankees. Many baseball fans don’t remember Damon for putting up big stats in that era, just his outlandish personality. That may have worked against him.
What’s also worked against Damon is that much of the best work of his career happened in Kansas City, and this is not the Royals that we know now. This Royals squad was covered about as well as the Dominican Summer League in baseball circles, so when Damon had 42 doubles, 10 triples, 16 home runs, stole 46 bases, and scored 136 runs on a team that finished in 4th place in its own division, nearly no one even noticed, as evidenced by the fact that his performance that season only garnered a 19th place finish in the MVP voting that season.
Damon still had solid seasons in Boston, but by the time the Red Sox had turned around their fortunes, Damon was no longer the speed demon he once was, becoming more of a guy who hit 30 doubles and 20 home runs while stealing 15-25 bases. Those are still tremendous number, but people rarely noticed, partly because Damon was more stable than he was ever elite, only having 200 hits once, having 40 doubles once, having more than 20 home runs twice, and never winning a batting title in spite of hitting .300 5 times.
When you look at the HOF numbers, JAWS has Damon at 44.4, while a HOF CFer typically has a 57.8 score. His black ink is 6 instead of 27, his gray ink is 77 instead of 144, his Hall of Fame Monitor is 90 instead of 100, and Hall of Fame Standards is 45 instead of 50. His numbers all rank low, but it’s notable that his age 37 and age 38 “most similar” from B-Ref is Paul Molitor, who then finished his career for his home town Twins, collecting 530 hits in his last 3 seasons to end up with just over 3,300 hits. Another 500 hits would comfortably put Damon over 3,000, and that would have likely ensured his place in Cooperstown.
Mauer has fallen out of national knowledge in the last few seasons, and I’d wager nearly no one would believe that he’s only 33 and currently sporting a 120 OPS+ on the season. Mauer was a #1 overall selection that won 3 batting titles as a catcher, twice leading the entire major leagues in hitting, something that had never been done.
However, after he suffered a number of concussions and struggled with recovering from those concussions, he was moved from behind the plate to first base in 2014. He’s still struggled with effects from the concussions, but he reports this season that he is finally feeling clear and seeing the ball well again.
The interesting part will be how history will look at Mauer. He is still signed for two more seasons with the Twins, which would bring him through his age 35 season. If his rejuvenation this season is real, then he could end up with 10 seasons at catcher and 9 seasons at first base at the end of his contract. If he gets one more 2-3 year deal after that as a 1B/DH, he could certainly have more time off of catcher than at catcher, and that could change his view historically.
Currently, he’s got a 44.0 JAWS score, which is already higher than the HOF catcher score of 43.4. Away from positional adjustments, he’s still making good strides, though. His black ink is 15 with 27 being average HOFer. His gray ink is 39 with average HOFer being 144. His Hall of Fame Monitor is 84 with a likely HOFer being 100. His Hall of Fame Standards number is 40 already with the average HOFer scoring 50.
We may be watching a future Hall of Famer every day for the Twins, and I highly doubt most people would be able to rattle off Mauer if you gave them the quiz of naming the 5 active players who have already exceeded the average JAWS score for a HOFer at their primary career position.
Career Stats: .316/.414/.539, 2,519 hits, 369 HR, 1400+ R & RBI
In an era of incredible offensive numbers throughout the sport, Helton was a guy who had numbers that others simply couldn’t even fathom. In 2000, Helton led the entire league in batting average, on base, slugging percentage, hits, doubles (with 59!), and RBI, yet he finished 5th in the MVP voting!
Why was this happening?? Well, since the time baseball started in Colorado in 1993, balls have flown to the gaps of the expansive outfield in Colorado, and hard-hit balls have carried far enough to clear the deep fences in Coors Field, making many of the hitters who play for the Rockies have numbers that seemed drastically inflated by their home park.
However, one of the things that is remarkable about Helton’s career is that he didn’t have monster numbers at Coors and nowhere else. He actually put up an OPS+ of 133 in his career, and from 2000-2005, his worst OPS+ was 144, and he had four 160+ OPS+ seasons. He wasn’t just hitting the ball hard because he was in Coors. He was hitting the ball hard because he was an exceptional hitter.
The tragedy is that at age 34, Helton was diagnosed with a degenerative back condition that caused him only to play over 124 games and come to the plate over 491 times one time in the last 6 seasons of his career. Those 6 seasons of injury cost him 16 points of career batting average and OBP while costing him nearly 50 career points of slugging percentage.
Helton actually has very good numbers to make the Hall of Fame argument. His black ink is 16 vs. 27 of an average HOFer. His gray ink is 143 vs. 144. His Hall of Fame Monitor is 175 vs. 100. His Hall of Fame Standards score is 59 vs. an average HOFer score of 50. Helton’s JAWS score is 53.8 vs. a 54.2 score of an average HOF 1B. He could end up having a very good argument, but I’d imagine many will be surprised his numbers are this high.
One of the most fun conversations I had with someone regarding Lofton was when discussing his Hall of Fame credentials and discussing the list of teams acknowledged on his plaque. He would certainly be a Clevaland Indian going into the Hall, but he has 11 teams that he played with over his 17 year career.
When Lofton appeared on the ballot in 2013, he remarkably immediately received so few votes that he fell off the ballot, garnering only 3.2% of the vote when 5% is required to stay on the ballot going forward. This is crazy to me, specifically as he’s most closely compared via similarity scores to Tim Raines, who has received a massive swell of support in recent seasons.
For a decade from 1992-2001, Lofton was the quintessential leadoff man and center fielder for the Indians (and one season for the Atlanta Braves). He averaged a 5.3 bWAR season each year during that time with his excellent offensive play on top of his great defensive play. In that decade, Lofton averaged a .303/.379/.428 line with 104 runs, 7 triples, 9 HR, and 48 SB on the offensive end.
From 2001 forward, Lofton seemed to be a renegade player, playing for 9 teams over 6 seasons, often traded at midseason to a contender to help that team to the playoffs. He still played well in that time, but as it was his age 35-40 seasons, he obviously had slowed down. He hit .293/.360/.418 with 8 triples, 6 home runs, and 24 stolen bases, so he did slow down, but was still very productive, hitting nearly .300 in his final season and stealing 23 bases, in spite of being 40!
Due to that role of being a “bought” player at the deadline, he ended up playing in the postseason in 11 of his 17 seasons, even hitting .375/.444/.438 for the Indians against the Yankees in 2007 at age 40.
Lofton’s also very close based on the analytical numbers, certainly too close to be voted out on the first ballot. His black ink is 15 vs. 27. His gray ink is 62 vs. 144. His Hall of Fame Monitor score is 91 vs. 100. His Hall of Fame Standards score is 42 vs. 50. His JAWS score is 55.7, with a HOF CF scoring 57.8 on average.
Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
Bobby Abreu, OF, 1996-2014
Career Stats: .291/.395/.475, 2,470 hits, 288 HR, 400 SB
Abreu is likely remembered most by average fans as the winner of the 2005 Home Run Derby at the All Star Game, setting records in the process and starting a big discussion about the damages of the participants in the derby as he fell off dramatically in the second half of 2005, hitting just 6 home runs after the All Star Game after hitting 18 that season before the break.
He was, however, a very productive player for many years with the Phillies before age caught up to him and really take away his ability to play in the outfield, forcing him to a DH role (or to a team that was tolerant of below-average outfield defense). He’s also got very unfortunate timing that likely kept him out of the public eye, leaving Philadelphia in 2006 just before they made a run to two division titles, including winning the World Series in 2008. He left the Yankees after the 2008 season, and the Yankees then proceeded to win the 2009 World Series (interestingly, over the Phillies).
His lack of postseason exposure for the average fan who didn’t get to see his season of 30 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 2004. The crazy part is that in spite of having an average of .301/.406/.497 with 39 doubles, 21 HR, 28 SB over 12 seasons from 1998-2009, yet he never once finished higher than 12th in the MVP voting.
When you look at the analytical numbers, Abreu shows that publicity doesn’t equal skill, though, as he is very close with many of the numbers. His black ink is 5 vs. 27. His gray ink is 88 vs. 144. His Hall of Fame Monitor score was 94 vs. 100. His Hall of Fame Standards score was 54 vs. 50. His JAWS score was 50.7 vs. 58.1 of an average HOF right fielder.
Career Stats: 211-144, 3.28 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2,397 strikeouts
Brown’s most memorable moment for most fans was becoming the first player to sign a contract worth over $100 million. He then had two and a half tremendous seasons for the Dodgers before suffering injuries that then affected him until the end of his career.
Brown had a run from 1996-2000 that was absolutely incredible. He won 82 games over the 5 seasons with a 2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 1,058 strikeouts over 1,209.2 innings while completing 28 games with a 4.17 K/BB ratio. In that time, he was the ace on a team that won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and the ace of a team that made a surprising run to the World Series in 1998 with the Padres.
Brown’s long career had multiple iterations as he started late, not having his first full season until he was 24, starting out as a ground ball-inducing inning-eater with the Rangers before re-inventing himself with the Marlins to become the ace he was for those seasons. He was also an excellent defender on the mound.
While pitchers like Curt Schilling and Mike Mussina are getting pushes for the Hall of Fame, neither had a peak comparable to Brown’s and their career numbers are not demonstrably better than Brown’s either, yet he fell off the ballot in his first year, getting only 2.1% of votes.
Brown’s black ink was 19 versus 40 for the average HOF pitcher. His gray ink was 166 versus 185 for the average HOF pitcher. Brown’s Hall of Fame Monitor score was 93 while a likely HOF pitcher would score 100. His Hall of Fame Standards score is 41 versus 50. Brown has a 56.9 JAWS score while the average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 62.1 JAWS score.
In all of these cases, there are definite arguments both for and against the players, but I’d wager each of these players would surprise you that they’re even that close to being considered!!
